The Chicago Cubs won Game 1 of their series against the Arizona Diamondbacks, and the two clubs will play again at Chase Field on Friday, March 28.
Arizona will turn to veteran Merrill Kelly to start the rematch, and my Cubs vs. Diamondbacks predictions expect the North Siders to rough up the righty tonight.
Read on for my MLB picks for Friday, March 28.
Cubs vs Diamondbacks prediction
My Cubs vs Diamondbacks best bet: Merrill Kelly Under 4.5 strikeouts (-110 at bet365)
Arizona Diamondbacks righty Merrill Kelly fanned six batters across five frames in his final spring outing, but he also served up three consecutive home runs and topped out at 45 pitches.
Kelly posted an underwhelming 7.7 K/9 and 21.0 K% over 13 starts last season, and the 36-year-old veteran missed the bulk of the year with a shoulder injury.
His 4.96 ERA after returning wasn’t encouraging, either. Kelly also posted a 4.70 mark this spring.
Additionally, it took Kelly 66 pitches – his highest count this spring – to record just 2 2/3 innings in his start against the Los Angeles Angels on March 17.
The Chicago Cubs were patient at the plate in Thursday’s series opener, and Diamondbacks starter Zac Gallen struck out four and walked four across four innings.
Gallen finished with 83 pitches, and I’m not expecting Kelly to pitch too much deeper into Friday’s game – especially given his underwhelming spring.
Plus, the Cubbies had the third-highest walk rate against right-handed pitchers last season and took six free passes in the series opener.
Cubs vs Diamondbacks same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 7.5 runs
Merrill Kelly Under 4.5 strikeouts
Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 hits + runs + rbi
The Cubs and Diamondbacks combined for 16 runs in the first game of the series, and Kelly and Chicago starter Jameson Taillon are unlikely to keep the scoring down Friday.
Taillon wasn’t sharp this spring, either. He only threw 10 2/3 innings across three starts and posted a 6.75 ERA.
Those spring numbers don’t include Taillon throwing four scoreless innings in an exhibition game against the Yomiuri Giants on March 16, but I’m not overvaluing that start.
He allowed five runs on six hits – two home runs – and a walk through just four innings in his final spring tuneup against the Colorado Rockies on Saturday.
Chicago outfielder Kyle Tucker was aggressive at the dish Thursday, and he’s cleared this total in consecutive games despite a 2-for-13 start and unsustainably low .237 wOBA.
The 28-year-old star posted a high-end .371 wOBA and .238 ISO against right-handed arms during his career.
Hitting second is also a boon for Tucker.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cubs vs Diamondbacks odds
Cubs vs Diamondbacks live odds
Cubs vs Diamondbacks opening odds
- Moneyline: Chicago (+110) | Arizona (-130)
- Run line: Chicago +1.5 (-200) | Arizona -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-115) | Under 8.5 (-105)
Cubs vs Diamondbacks trend
The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Over in 69 of their last 110 games (+27.65 Units / 23% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Diamondbacks.
How to watch Cubs vs Diamondbacks and game info
| Location | Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date | Friday, 3-28-2025 |
| First pitch | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | Marquee, Dbacks TV |
| Cubs starting pitcher | Jameson Taillon (2024: 12-8, 3.27 ERA) |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher | Merrill Kelly (2024: 5-1, 4.03 ERA) |
Cubs vs Diamondbacks latest injuries
Cubs vs Diamondbacks weather
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