Lightning vs Panthers Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight's NHL Playoffs Game 4

Gilbert's prediction: Jake Guentzel has been one of the most active Lightning forwards this series, particularly in Games 1 and 3. He'll pack a punch on Monday, reaching the scoreboard against the Panthers.

Ryan Gilbert - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Ryan Gilbert • Betting Analyst
Apr 28, 2025 • 08:45 ET • 4 min read

NHL

Match starts: 6 mins
FLA
65 %
TB
35 %
EXPERT PICK - PROP
Jake Guentzel o0.5 points (-160) Jake Guentzel o0.5 points (-160)
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Jake Guentzel Tampa Bay Lightning NHL
Photo By - Imagn Images.

The Tampa Bay Lightning are looking to even up the series with another road win in Game 4 against the Florida Panthers tonight.

My Lightning vs. Panthers picks are targeting Jake Guentzel to stay hot in the best NHL picks on Monday, April 28.

Who will win Lightning vs Panthers Game 4?

The Tampa Bay Lightning played arguably their worst game of the series in Game 3 but came away with a 5-1 win. They were outshot 34-22 but Andrei Vasilevskiy was on his game in a much-needed bounceback effort.

The Lightning will also have a refreshed Brandon Hagel back after his one-game suspension for Game 3. This should be a long series and I’ll take the Lightning to win again as road underdogs.

Lightning vs Panthers prediction

My Lightning vs Panthers pick: Jake Guentzel Over 0.5 points (-160 at Sports Interaction)

Jake Guentzel helped lead the way for the Lightning with two assists and a goal in Saturday's 5-1 win over the Florida Panthers

Guentzel has been one of the most active Lightning players this series, tying for the team lead in shot attempts (12) and shots on goal (7) at 5-on-5 play. He's managed to generate in high-danger areas with a team-leading 11 scoring chances (seven of the high-danger variety). 

The Lightning winger plays on both the top line and top power-play unit with Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov

Tampa’s man advantage is struggling a bit with just one goal on 13 attempts. But given how physical this series has been and those 13 power plays through three games, the Lightning are bound to get a few chances again in Game 4 and it's only a matter of time before they capitalize.

Guentzel thrives in these big moments, tallying a point in nine of his last 10 games against the Panthers.

Lightning vs Panthers same-game parlay (SGP)

Jake Guentzel 3+ shots on goal

Jake Guentzel anytime goal

Lightning moneyline

Guentzel didn’t get a shot on goal in Game 2, but he’s bookended that with six SOG on as many attempts in Game 1 and five on seven attempts in Game 3. He should look to shoot again in Game 4.

The Lightning winger has scored in two of three games thus far and has five goals in his last six games overall. Against the Panthers, Guentzel has scored in three of four and four of the last six matchups.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Lightning vs Panthers odds

Lightning vs Panthers live odds

Lightning vs Panthers opening odds

  • Puck line: Tampa Bay +110 | Florida -130
  • Moneyline: Tampa Bay +1.5 (-235) | Florida -1.5 (+195)
  • Over/Under: Over 5.5 (-115) | Under 5.5 (-105)

Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction

Lightning vs Panthers trend

The Tampa Bay Lightning have covered the Puck Line in 45 of their last 87 games (+3.52 Units / 3% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Lightning vs. Panthers.

How to watch Lightning vs Panthers

Location Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise, FL
Date Monday, 4-28-2025
Puck drop 7:00 p.m. ET
TV ESPN

Lightning vs Panthers latest injuries

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Ryan Gilbert - Covers
Betting Analyst

Ryan Gilbert brings the passion and pain of being a Philadelphia sports fan. After graduating from Monmouth University with a finance degree, he now uses his statistical background to find inefficiencies in betting markets. With past stops at NHL.com, NBC Sports, and currently at Covers, Ryan's hot picks blend well with the cold ice of a hockey rink.

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