It’s a quieter two-game slate on the ice Monday, April 28, with the Florida Panthers and Tampa Bay Lightning kick-starting the action with their Game 4 showdown.
The nightcap features the Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars set to break their 2-2 series deadlock, and my top NHL picks for parlays have you covered for both games.
Today's best NHL Playoffs parlay: April 28
Lightning/Panthers Under 5.5
Avalanche moneyline
Mackenzie Blackwood Over 23.5 saves
Pick #1: Lightning/Panthers Under 5.5 goals
There have been a pair of high-scoring results to start the first-round series between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Florida Panthers, but I expect to see Game 4 play out similarly to the low-scoring Game 2.
Neither goaltender has been particularly sharp, and the Panthers allowed the fourth-fewest goals per game (2.41) and second-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 (2.17) on home ice during the regular season.
There have also only been nine goals and 9.42 expected goals at 5-on-5 through the first three games of the series, with two empty-net tallies and four power-play goals propping up the scoring.
Back to the goaltending, Andrei Vasilevskiy and Sergei Bobrovsky have combined for a .896 SV%. Considering these are a pair of Vezina Trophy winners and Stanley Cup champions, I expect tidier play in the blue paint tonight.
Vasilevskiy posted a high-end .921 SV% during the regular season, and Bobrovsky was solid with a .906 mark, after all.
Pick #2: Avalanche moneyline
The Colorado Avalanche have been the better team in this series at 5-on-5 with a 58.1 Corsi For percentage and 54.0 expected goals percentage, and Mackenzie Blackwood has been lights out in the crease with a postseason-high 7.29 goals saved above expected.
Blackwood and the Avalanche have limited the Dallas Stars to two goals or fewer in three of four games, and Colorado has also won the Corsi battle at 5-on-5 in three of four.
The tough part for Dallas is that Jake Oettinger has also been incredible in the net with a .939 SV% at 5-on-5, so after posting a .914 mark during the regular season, there’s potential for Oettinger’s play to dip as the series progresses.
Finally, there has also been a huge gap in the scoring depth through four games. The Avalanche have 11 players with multiple points in the series, while the Stars have one.
Pick #3: Mackenzie Blackwood Over 23.5 saves
Mackenzie Blackwood has turned away 23 or more shots in all four games of the series, including making 35 saves on the road in Game 2 and 26 in Game 3. The Stars have let a 2-1 series lead slip away, and with Game 5 back at the American Airlines Center, I’m anticipating the Stars looking to put shots on net early and often tonight.
As noted, Blackwood has been nearly unbeatable during the postseason, and Colorado is unlikely to continue dominating the possession battle (58.1 CF%) and shot share (57.4%) at 5-on-5 as drastically as it has through the first four games of this series.
It all adds up to a few more low-danger shots from Dallas, and Blackwood turning in another tidy showing tonight.
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