After splitting Games 1-2 at Toyota Center, the Houston Rockets headed West to take on the Golden State Warriors at Chase Center. Game 3 was another low-scoring dog fight, but Golden State showed true playoff grit and intensity by delivering a comeback win with Jimmy Butler on the sidelines.
My Rockets vs. Warriors predictions and NBA picks expect Golden State to carry momentum into Game 4 thanks to strong defense, key contributions from role players and another masterclass from Stephen Curry on April 28.
Who will win Rockets vs Warriors Game 4?
Golden State swung momentum to its side with a dominant fourth quarter and victory in Game 3. Riding that win and playing great basketball at home, I’m taking Golden State to win and take a 3-1 series lead back to Houston.
Rockets vs Warriors prediction
My best bet: Warriors -4 (-110 at bet365)
I picked the Houston Rockets to win Game 3 over a team missing its two-way superstar in Jimmy Butler. Man, was that the wrong read! The Golden State Warriors fell down by double digits early in the game and went into the fourth quarter down by two.
A dominant final frame resulted in a double-digit victory for the Dubs and a chance to push Houston to the brink on Monday.
Houston’s defense was all over Stephen Curry throughout the game, but he rallied from a quiet first half to deliver a monstrous 36/7/9 line to lead his team to a much-needed win. With so much attention on Curry, Golden State’s role players came alive.
Quinten Post led all players with 12 rebounds, and Buddy Hield delivered 17 points after averaging fewer than five per game over his last four. Gary Payton II also went off for a playoff career-high 16, including some key buckets late in the contest.
Golden State’s defense locked down Houston and held the Rockets to just 93 points. Low-scoring totals haven’t been uncommon in this series, but the strength of the Warriors’ defense without Butler was surprising.
Butler has a chance to return for Game 4, but even if he sits, I’m backing Golden State to win and cover the spread. If the series goes the distance, two of the final three games will be in Houston, and going up 3-1 with another home win would be highly beneficial to Golden State. A victory on Monday could be a knockout blow, and Curry surely knows this.
After a win in Game 2 and Butler’s injury, momentum favored the Rockets. But the script has flipped, and Golden State is in control. A bigger starting five featuring Post and Jonathan Kuminga was effective, and role players like Payton II and Hield tend to play better in front of the home crowd.
I’m expecting Curry to lead the charge in a pivotal matchup and do what he’s done throughout his career in the biggest moments.
Rockets vs Warriors same-game parlay
Warriors -4
Under 202
Stephen Curry Over 38.5 points+rebounds+assists
This is a wildly low point total, but this series has been wildly low-scoring. All three games have hit the Under. Houston’s defense has been one of the best in the league throughout the season, and Golden State has amped it up on that end of the court as of late.
Expect another physical, low-scoring affair after Games 1-3 featured point totals of 180, 193 and 197, respectively.
The Warriors won’t get a win without another strong performance from Curry, and he knows it. He’s averaged 29/6/7 in this series, hitting the Over on this combo line in both Golden State victories.
He’s reached at least 39 PRA in five of his last six at home, including four straight. This is a pivotal contest, and I expect him to be at his best under the bright lights.
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Rockets vs Warriors odds
Rockets vs Warriors live odds
Rockets vs Warriors opening odds
- Spread: Houston +4 | Golden State -4
- Moneyline: Houston +155 | Golden State -185
- Over/Under: Over 201.5 | Under 201.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Rockets vs Warriors spread and Over/Under analysis
- Golden State covered in six of eight head-to-head matchups with Houston this season.
- The Rockets and Warriors hit the Under in seven of eight matchups.
Rockets vs Warriors trend
The Golden State Warriors have hit the fourth-quarter moneyline in 26 of their last 36 games (+14.65 Units / 29% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Rockets vs. Warriors.
How to watch Rockets vs Warriors
| Location | Chase Center, San Francisco, CA |
| Date | Monday, 4-28-2025 |
| Tip-off | 11:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT |
Rockets vs Warriors latest injuries
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