Cavaliers vs Heat Prediction, Picks & Odds for Monday's NBA Playoffs Game 4

Farmer's prediction: The Cavaliers won't let up with a chance to complete the sweep in front of them. They'll dominate the Heat, winning both halves, to get an early ticket to the second round.

Douglas Farmer - Betting Analyst at Covers
Douglas Farmer • Betting Analyst
Apr 27, 2025 • 13:15 ET • 4 min read

NBA

Match starts: 22 hrs
MIA
39 %
CLE
61 %
EXPERT PICK - SGP
Cavaliers 1H/FT double result (-190) Cavaliers 1H/FT double result (-190)
Read Analysis
Donovan Mitchell Cleveland Cavaliers NBA
Photo By - Imagn Images.

The Cleveland Cavaliers wasted no time in Game 3 making it clear that they are focused on ending this first-round series as quickly as possible.

The Miami Heat might have pride at stake, but this series is over, and my Cavaliers vs. Heat predictions expect Cleveland to put a button on this series.

Read on for my full NBA picks ahead of this 7:30 p.m. ET tip on Monday, April 28.

Who will win Cavaliers vs Heat Game 4?

The Cleveland Cavaliers are taking care of business. That sounds like small praise, but did you see the Thunder barely survive the Grizzlies on Saturday? These routs cannot always be assumed.

Cleveland knows its next round will not be anywhere near as easy, with either the Pacers or the Bucks looming. So getting some rest should be a priority. Completing this sweep against the Miami Heat will grant that.

Cavaliers vs Heat prediction

My best bet: Cavaliers halftime/full-time double result (-190 at bet365)

The value here is astounding, and no, that is not often said about a bet juiced to -190. For some context, know that this same double result (or, as some would refer to it, same-game parlay) was priced beyond -400 in Oklahoma City’s Game 4 at Memphis.

The Thunder were favored by two more buckets, but that massive price was still steep. It was understandably steep, a 3-0 series ruining an 8-seed’s psychological hopes as much as anything else. But -400 was notable.

To get the same bet in the East at half that price is a delight. And Cleveland has not shown any uncertainty in this series. In fact, the Cavs have been leading at halftime and at the final buzzer in their last five games against the Heat, overing every meeting in 2025.

That fact alone could be justification enough for this bet.

Cleveland has a very professional attitude, one that warrants praise. Remember, the Grizzlies put a game-long scare into the Thunder on Saturday. Meanwhile, the Cavs have won the three first quarters in this series by an average of seven points. When Game 2 was within a point after a frame, Cleveland then won the second quarter by 16.

This is not as common as we make it out to be. And we are getting a wonderful price in this one moment of postseason reliability.

Cavaliers vs Heat same-game parlay

Cavaliers 1H moneyline

Cavaliers moneyline

Heat team total Under 101.5

First of all, these playoffs have seen a renewed physicality allowance from the officiating crews. Entering Sunday, 19 of 26 playoff games had fallen short of their totals, though the first two games of this series both hit their Overs.

Miami has hit the Under on its team total twice in this series, the Game 2 exception coming in some part thanks to trailing by 13 at the start of the fourth quarter.

But a similar deficit in the clinching game should not evoke the same desperate rally. It should instead prompt an expedited quarter looking a lot like garbage time while Miami thinks about Cancun.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Cash your ML bets quicker with bet365's early win payout

Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game NBA moneyline bet gets paid out as a winner if your team goes up by 20+ points!

Learn more about this feature, and all of bet365's offerings, with our comprehensive bet365 review.

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Cavaliers vs Heat odds

Cavaliers vs Heat live odds

Cavaliers vs Heat opening odds

  • Spread: Cleveland -9 (-110) | Miami +9 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Cleveland -425 | Miami +325
  • Over/Under: Over 210.5 (-110) | Under 210.5 (-110)

Odds courtesy of bet365

Cavaliers vs Heat spread and Over/Under analysis

  • Cleveland was just a five-point road favorite in Game 3, this spread jumping by more than a bucket a distinct reflection of that 37-point win.
  • The Cavs are 27-15 against the spread on the road this season.
  • The total falling by two points since Saturday’s rout only furthers belief in the Cavaliers.

Cavaliers vs Heat trend

Cleveland has won the first half in 62 of 85 games this year. Find more NBA betting trends for Cavaliers vs. Heat.

How to watch Cavaliers vs Heat

Location Kaseya Center, Miami, FL
Date Monday, 4-28-2025
Tip-off 7:30 p.m. ET
TV TNT

Cavaliers vs Heat latest injuries

Not intended for use in MA.
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Douglas Farmer
Betting Analyst

Douglas Farmer spends his days thinking about college football and his nights thinking about the NBA. His betting habits and coverage follow that same pattern. He covered Notre Dame football for various outlets from 2008 to 2024, most notably spending eight seasons as NBC Sports’ beat writer on the Irish. That was also when his gambling focus took off. Knowing there were veteran beat writers with three decades more experience than he had, Douglas found his niche by best recognizing Notre Dame’s standing in each year’s national landscape, a complex tapestry most easily understood and remembered via betting odds.

In 2021, that interest created a freelance opportunity with Covers, a role that eventually led to Douglas joining the company full-time in 2023. In the fall, Douglas will place five or six dozen bets each week, a disproportionate amount via BetRivers because the operator tends to have lines slightly different than the rest of the market. The same can be said of Circa Sports’ futures markets.

While Douglas is an avid NBA fan and covers the league throughout the year, the vast majority of his bets are on college football, because that is the biggest key to sports betting: Know what you do not know.

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