Jack Flaherty makes his return to the Detroit Tigers to face the team that traded for him last season, as the Los Angeles Dodgers play host on Friday night.
The right-hander’s numbers cratered after being dealt to sunny Southern California, leaving his projection unclear heading into 2025.
This is a tough matchup to start the year, and I’m bullish on LA’s bats. Read about why I fancy the Dodgers’ team total Over in my Detroit Tigers vs. Los Angeles predictions and MLB picks for Friday, March 28.
Tigers vs Dodgers prediction
My Tigers vs Dodgers best bet: Dodgers team total Over 4.5 (+110 at FanDuel)
Jack Flaherty’s breakout 2024 season was a bit unexpected. From 2020 on, the Harvard-Westlake product posted an ERA higher than 4.90 in a season more frequently than he did an ERA below 4.20.
Then came the 3.17 ERA across 162 IP with the Detroit Tigers and Los Angeles Dodgers. The underlying metrics didn’t quite support the breakout, as he held a 3.54 xERA and a 3.48 FIP, but there were no drastic differences.
The concerning part of his profile comes when you consider the monthly splits. The right-hander’s 3.49 ERA in August and 3.67 ERA in September and August are more like what you’d typically expect, and it’s likely similar to how he performs in 2025. Not bad, but not stellar.
After finishing in the 58th percentile in xBA and the 49th percentile in barrel rate, it wouldn’t make sense to expect ace numbers going forward. Flaherty can still be a very useful picture, but some of the numbers from early 2024 were a flash in the pan.
The Dodgers are off to a perfect 3-0 start, which surprises absolutely nobody who has paid attention to the offseason MLB news. They added to an already-loaded roster in hopes of repeating as World Series champs, and they’ll prove a tough challenge for Flaherty.
There were concerns about the health of both Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman heading into the season, but lo and behold, both were in the lineup yesterday. It’ll be difficult to attack a lineup with basically no holes in it, especially when the wind is blowing out to right-center at 11 mph this evening.
I’ll bet on the Dodgers getting to Flaherty and doing damage against a middle-of-the-road Detroit bullpen.
Tigers vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)
Dodgers team total Over 4.5
Michael Conforto 2+ total bases
Yoshinobu Yamamoto 6+ strikeouts
Michael Conforto has had great success against Flaherty in a limited sample size, going 4-for-6 with a home run, five RBI, and a 2.000 OPS. The projection systems are bullish on the outfielder, with the most optimistic expecting a 114 wRC+. After finishing with an 85th percentile xwOBA and 89th percentile xSLG a year ago, there’s a reason to be excited.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto gets the nod for the Dodgers and faces a Detroit lineup that had a 24.2% K-rate in 2024. Yamamoto looked great in the Tokyo series, striking out four across five innings of three-hit ball. There’s nothing scary about the Tigers’ lineup, so I’m expecting an impressive outing with 6+ punchouts.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Tigers vs Dodgers odds
Tigers vs Dodgers live odds
Tigers vs Dodgers opening odds
- Moneyline: Detroit +165 | Los Angeles -200
- Run line: Detroit +1.5 (-140) | Los Angeles -1.5 (+115)
- Over/Under: Over 7 (-118) | Under 7 (-102)
Tigers vs Dodgers trend
The Dodgers have scored 5+ runs in four of their last six home games. Find more MLB betting trends for Tigers vs. Dodgers.
How to watch Tigers vs Dodgers and game info
| Location | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date | Friday, 3-28-2025 |
| First pitch | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | FDSN Detroit, SportsNet LA |
| Tigers starting pitcher | Jack Flaherty (2024: 6-2, 3.58 ERA) |
| Dodgers starting pitcher | Yoshinobu Yamamoto (2024: 7-2, 3.00 ERA) |
Tigers vs Dodgers latest injuries
Tigers vs Dodgers weather
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