Tonight features the Auburn Tigers and Michigan Wolverines fighting for the right to go to the Elite Eight.
Michigan took care of business against Texas A&M by double-digits with a furious second-half rally. Meanwhile, Auburn, for the most part, has had smooth sailing. The Tigers arrive off a cover and a 12-point win against Creighton, but my Auburn vs. Michigan predictions expect them to be pushed here.
Read on for my full March Madness picks for Friday, March 28th.
Who will win Michigan vs Auburn?
In the end, Auburn wins because of its backcourt. There are so many similarities between this game and the Creighton one. The frontcourt of Johni Broome and Dylan Cardwell will be neutralized. Michigan's Twin Towers of Vlad Goldin and Danny Wolf will also punish the no-double in the post policy.
However, the most significant mismatch will be realized as the Tigers can make plays off the dribble with a deep backcourt, and Michigan cannot.
It's also worth mentioning that Tahaad Pettiford is playing his best basketball of the season, coming off a 23-point performance against the Bluejays. That's significant because Auburn is 4-1 this season when he scores 20 or more, which includes a win over fellow one-seed Houston.
Michigan vs Auburn prediction
My best bet: Michigan +9 (-110 at bet365)
To say the line movement in this game has been interesting would be an understatement. It's been everywhere. At posting time, a bettor could have conceivably had a small middle with Auburn -7 and Michigan +9.
While I don't expect the Michigan Wolverines to win, this should be tight throughout.
The Auburn Tigers just haven't seen this, and not many have. The two 7-footer lineup of Vlad Goldin and Danny Wolf has made all the difference for Michigan this season, and I expect it to do it again. The Tigers are exploitable on the backboard here, a quiet story of Auburn's season.
Michigan has recently committed to creating secondary offense via offensive rebounds. Since the Big Ten tournament-opening game, its offensive rebounding percentage has ranked 30th nationally. It's a big leap from where it was in the regular season.
That's a problem for Auburn. While the Tigers have been solid rebounders this season, they haven't been elite at it, and this has caused issues in specific games, like when Texas A&M outrebounded them 2-1 while grabbing 24 offensive boards. Most troubling is what happens after the rebound.
On plays defined as "rebound and scrambles," Auburn has allowed 1.13 points per possession. The national average is .89. For a team with seemingly little to no cracks in its armor, that's a glaring one.
Michigan is quite good at these plays. It helps to have a big man like Wolf with a 23% assist rate. During the season, Blue has gotten 1.39 points per possession on plays against the Top 50 opponents, in the 99th percentile of college basketball. It's been a pillar of their success and will reappear tonight.
On the other hand, Auburn will get its points. Michigan's talented backcourt creates too much dribble, and Chad Baker-Mazera's unpredictable play lately is a real issue. But it can be slowed.
Auburn has leaned so much on its post play this season (that will happen when you have a National Player of the Year candidate at the four spot) and has run post-ups at one of the highest frequency rates in the country. Michigan's .68 points per possession allowed on post-ups places it among the Top 10% of college basketball. It's earned that distinction by playing a schedule that's included plenty of talented big men, too.
The Wolverines have a clear path to slowing Auburn down. This is too many points, even in what may feel like a proverbial home game for the Tigers. While head coach Bruce Pearl has plenty of March pedigree, Michigan man Dusty May has been to the most recent Final Four — he'll have his team ready.
Michigan vs Auburn same-game parlay (SGP)
Michigan +9
Danny Wolf Over 9.5 rebounds
Danny Wolf Over 3.5 assists
We're expecting a Danny Wolf show. At least from a backboard perspective.
Wolf has been Michigan's best rebounder all season. He's had double-digit boards in four of the last six games and will take advantage of Auburn's average backboard presence here. With that, assist probabilities go up.
Wolf is a secondary facilitator even without the rebounds, but he opens himself up for kick-out assist chances when hitting glass. He's hit this number in two of his last four games, and those came when he had five offensive rebounds. We like him to exceed 3.5 assists because of that.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Michigan vs Auburn odds
Michigan vs Auburn live odds
Michigan vs Auburn opening odds
- Spread: Michigan +8 (-110) | Auburn -8 (-110)
- Moneyline: Michigan +300 | Auburn -380
- Over/Under: Over 152.5 (-110) | Under 152.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Michigan vs Auburn betting trend to know
Auburn has hit the Moneyline in 30 of its last 35 games (+17.65 Units / 1% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Michigan vs. Auburn.
How to watch Michigan vs Auburn
| Region | South |
| Location | State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA |
| Date | Friday, 3-28-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:39 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Michigan vs Auburn key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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