The final Elite 8 game of the weekend is a doozy as Tom Izzo and the No. 2 seed Michigan State Spartans (30-6) take on Bruce Pearl and the No. 1 seed Auburn Tigers (31-5).
The extra attention brings more offerings in the player prop market, and I’ve selected my three favorites from the plethora of available bets on the board.
Read on for my Johni Broome, Coen Carr, and Denver Jones March Madness picks for Michigan State vs. Auburn props in the Elite 8 at State Farm Arena on Sunday, March 30. And for full-game analysis, check out Chris Hatfield's Michigan State vs. Auburn predictions!
Michigan State vs Auburn March Madness props
- Johni Broome Over 0.5 made threes (-115 at bet365)
- Coen Carr Over 8.5 points (-120 at bet365)
- Denver Jones Under 11.5 points (+110 at bet365)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Michigan State vs Auburn March Madness props
Johni Broome Over 0.5 made threes (-115 at bet365)
By now you’ve heard of Johni Broome’s dominance on the court, so I’ll save my breath regarding his superb hooping skills. Instead, let’s focus on his 3-pointer prop for the Elite 8 as the matchup makes this an interesting bet.
The Michigan State Spartans’ defensive philosophy involves walling off the rim and forcing difficult looks from outside. Tom Izzo’s squad ranks 250th in 3-point attempt rate (per Haslametrics) but has been superb at closing out on shooters — opponents are hitting at just 28% from behind the arc.
That defensive tactic will loom large in this matchup against an Auburn Tigers team that takes a lot of 3s and hits them at 36.3%. While you know that Michigan State will close out hard on Auburn’s guards (more on that later), it’s difficult to defend every shooter on the court at once.
Broome has proved a willing shooter in the NCAA Tournament, if not an efficient one. The big man is 1-for-8 from downtown and I’m betting we continue to see him fly away a few times against a Spartans frontcourt that will throw Jaxon Kohler, Szymon Zapala, and Carson Cooper in constant rotation while hoping to keep Broome from running wild down low.
The Spartans are likely happy to let Broome let loose on any attempts from behind the arc as they usually force shots from teams’ worst shooters while making life difficult for sharpshooters. Broome will get his one way or another (or at least huck shots trying to), and this matchup points toward him being pushed out behind the arc for a few attempts. He only needs to can one of them!
Coen Carr Over 8.5 points (-120 at bet365)
Coen Carr is the best dunker in college basketball and it isn’t particularly close. The rim runner has been more than just a human highlight reel, though, proving a valuable piece of Michigan State’s run to the Elite 8.
Carr has seen an uptick in minutes during March, playing 22 minutes in the opener against Bryant, 25 minutes in the second round against New Mexico, and 32 minutes in the Sweet 16 against Mississippi. He’s earned coach Izzo’s trust with good reason, averaging 13.6 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 1.0 blocks through the first three games of the Big Dance.
His atheltcism will be needed against Auburn and it’d be very surprising if his minutes decreased now. Auburn allows plenty of looks at the rim (149th in near-proximity attempt rate per Haslametrics) and Carr’s thunderous rim runs will come in handy in this matchup.
Another way that Carr can continue his increased scoring output is at the line. Auburn is known for fouling opponents (239th in free-throw attempt rate allowed) and Carr is 10-for-11 at the line in the tournament, repeatedly forcing the issue.
Carr is a talented player receiving an uptick in minutes, averaging five points higher in March Madness than his points prop, and has a decent stylistic matchup.
Denver Jones Under 11.5 points (+110 at bet365)
Remember what I said about Michigan State hellaciously closing out on sharpshooting guards while letting low-percentage shooters fly away?
That’ll affect Auburn guard Denver Jones, who excels as a sniper from long range. Expectations are high for the former Florida International transfer after he went 6-for-9 from 3-point range in his last two games.
I’m not buying it. It’s time to sell high, in my opinion. Jones averages 11.0 ppg on the year yet his prop is priced up at 12.5 despite facing the No. 5 defense in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency (KenPom) and the No. 1 team in 3-point percentage allowed vs. the average opponent (Haslametrics).
If you ignore the recent hot streak in the tournament, Jones has posted fewer than 12.5 points in 11 of his last 27 games. That’s a more accurate indicator of his talent level, especially considering the difficult matchup.
This prop is all about recency bias and I’m fading that by playing the Under.
Michigan State has allowed only four opponents all year to shot 35% or higher from behind the arc. While some of that is shooting variance luck, a whole lot of it is due to Izzo’s squad closing out hard on shooters and playing great overall defense.
Not intended for use in MA.
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