The top two seeds in the East Region square off in the Elite Eight tonight, with the Alabama Crimson Tide taking on the Duke Blue Devils.
These are two of the best teams in college basketball, but the Tide have been lax on defense, which is why my Alabama vs. Duke predictions expect the Blue Devils to light up the scoreboard.
Here are my best free March Madness picks for this marquee matchup on Saturday, March 29, with tipoff at 8:49 p.m. ET from Prudential Center in New Jersey.
Who will win Alabama vs Duke?
The Alabama Crimson Tide played against far more elite teams in the SEC than the Duke Blue Devils did in the ACC. However, the Blue Devils have proven they can beat strong opponents with non-conference victories against Arizona (twice) and Auburn on their resume.
While the Crimson Tide have an elite offense they've been vulnerable on the other end of the floor, where they rank 27th in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom. Duke is in the Top-5 in both adjusted offense and adjusted defense, and that balance should result in a trip to the Final Four.
Alabama vs Duke prediction
My best bet: Duke team total Over 90.5 (-120 at bet365)
You have to think that at some point, Alabama coach Nate Oats will get his team to slow down just a bit and focus on defense. However, after five months of seeing the Tide try to outscore everybody with a frenetic pace, it's clear that this run-and-gun philosophy is in their DNA. That could be their undoing with an elite Duke offense on deck.
The Blue Devils are first in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and don't have a weak spot. They are 16th in in turnover rate (13.9%), fifth in 2-point percentage (58.6%), and ninth in 3-point percentage (38.5%). They are elite at scoring in half-court sets but are also excellent in transition and won't have issues matching Alabama's tempo.
That blazing-fast tempo and inconsistent defensive effort have resulted in the Crimson Tide ranking 347th in the country in points per game allowed (81.2).
They surrendered 81 points to No. 15 seed Robert Morris in the opening round and were fortunate to face a Saint Mary's squad that couldn't hit an open shot in the second round. In the Sweet 16, BYU scored 88 points against them despite going just 6-for-30 from deep.
Meanwhile, the Blue Devils have ramped up their own pace since the middle of February, which has resulted in some high-scoring performances. They are fresh off a 100-93 win against Arizona and have topped 90 points in six of their last nine games with Cooper Flagg in their lineup.
Alabama vs Duke same-game parlay (SGP)
Duke team total Over 90.5
Kon Knueppel Over 15.5 points
Sion James Over 3.5 rebounds
Cooper Flagg is coming off a monster game against Arizona, but don't forget that Kon Knueppel added 20 points. Knueppel has thrived as Duke's No. 2 scoring option, and with Alabama likely focusing on Flagg, he'll have more favorable matchups.
Knueppel dropped 17+ points of seven of the last nine regular season games, and he can score from all three levels. He'll get open looks from the perimeter against a Tide defense that is 345th at allowing high-quality threes per ShotQualityBets.
This game will be played at a breakneck pace, which will result in more possessions and rebounding opportunities. The Tide sit 295th in rebounds allowed per game, and since both teams shoot a lot of threes, we should see plenty of longer rebounds.
James has grabbed 4+ rebounds in five of his last seven games, and the 6-foot-6, 220-pound guard will be able to outmuscle Alabama's smaller backcourt for loose rebounds.
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Alabama vs Duke odds
Alabama vs Duke live odds
Alabama vs Duke opening odds
- Spread: Alabama +6.5 (-105) | Duke -6.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Alabama +245 | Duke -305
- Over/Under: Over 174 (-110) | Under 174 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Alabama vs Duke betting trend to know
The Over is 10-1 in Duke's last 11 games with Cooper Flagg in the lineup. Find more college basketball betting trends for Alabama vs. Duke.
How to watch Alabama vs Duke
| Region | East |
| Location | Prudential Center, Newark, NJ |
| Date | Saturday, 3-29-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:49 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS, truTV |
Alabama vs Duke key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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