While the Houston Cougars may have been understandably bored this season, they are not any longer. Too much is at stake now, beginning with this Sweet Sixteen matchup against the Purdue Boilermakers.
My Purdue vs. Houston predictions recognize that when the Cougars are locked in, their defense demands more respect than it has gotten. Find out more in my March Madness picks for Friday, March 28.
Who will win Purdue vs Houston?
Houston has not lost in regulation since the second game of the season. All four of its losses came to NCAA Tournament teams, including three teams in the Sweet Sixteen.
Purdue has lost six of its last 11, going just 5-6 against the spread in that stretch. It's not just that the Boilermakers do not enjoy a 15-game winning streak like the Cougars do; it's that Purdue lost to Ohio State two months ago and Indiana about a month ago. Oh, and Penn State in December.
Houston may have the highest floor in the country, one raised not only by the best defense in the country but also by decent free throw shooting, excellent 3-point shooting, and the best offensive rebounding approach in the country.
That floor should assure the Cougars of a 16th-straight win against a Boilermakers team that hardly looks like the one that lost in the national championship game last year.
Purdue vs Houston prediction
My best bet: Purdue team total Under 61.5 (-120 at bet365)
In Houston’s last four games, opponents have hit the Under on their team totals in three of them. Note those four games: The Big 12 semifinal, the Big 12 championship game, and two NCAA Tournament games. No one is going to be bored by those stakes.
When Houston is not bored, its defense is something to marvel at.
Include the last three regular-season games in which the Cougars were favored by less than nine points. All three of those were against NCAA Tournament teams, including two Sweet Sixteen teams in Arizona and Texas Tech, and all three of those opponents fell short of their team totals.
Since Feb. 15 — a stretch chosen because of these moments of focus, a 12-game period featuring seven games that genuinely had the Cougars’ attention — Houston’s defense is nearly a point per 100 possessions better than the No. 2 defense in the country (Maryland), and more than four points better than St. John’s at No. 4, per barttorvik.com.
This defense is underappreciated.
Of those seven games that genuinely had the Cougars’ attention, the only one to clear its team total was Gonzaga last weekend. The Bulldogs trailed by 12 points with 11 minutes to go. This math is not entirely applicable given the late urgency in any game situation, but literally speaking, Gonzaga was on pace for 66 points — 2.5 below its team total.
And if that math is somewhat applicable with anyone, it is Houston’s defense, given it held Arizona to two points in the final 5:32 of the Big 12 championship game.
Gonzaga dug into a desperate flurry, something it should have played into all along given its preference to play at a higher tempo. Purdue avoids pace nowadays, and head coach Matt Painter may slow this matchup down even further, trying to shrink the talent gap between the Boilermakers and the Cougars.
That will only give Houston time to set its tenacious perimeter defense and force mistakes by Purdue’s guards. That may be rare for veteran Braden Smith, but the Cougars’ defense is the exception that proves all rules.
Purdue vs Houston same-game parlay (SGP)
Purdue team total Under 61.5
Houston -8
Trey Kaufman-Renn Under 17.5 points
Of those seven games that had Houston’s genuine focus in the last month-plus, it went 5-0-2 against the spread, exceeding bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 4.5 points. Advanced metrics also tend to underrate slow-playing teams, and Houston is the fifth-slowest team in the country.
Those fewer possessions will cut into Trey Kaufman-Renn’s scoring chances, as will the Cougars’ relentless rebounding. Houston ranked No. 3 in the Big 12 in limiting offensive rebounds. Notably, that was a Gonzaga strength this season, until snagging only five offensive boards last week, a 20% rate far below the Bulldogs’ 32.5% rate this season.
Furthermore, the Cougars limit entry passes, and that will make any Kaufman-Renn touches that much harder to conjure.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Purdue vs Houston odds
Purdue vs Houston live odds
Purdue vs Houston opening odds
- Spread: Purdue +8 | Houston -8
- Moneyline: Purdue +300 | Houston -380
- Over/Under: Over 132.5 | Under 132.5
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Purdue vs Houston betting trend to know
In Houston’s last five NCAA Tournaments, nine of 17 opponents have been held Under their team totals, with three of the eight exceptions coming by the hook. Find more college basketball betting trends for Purdue vs. Houston.
How to watch Purdue vs Houston
| Region | Midwest |
| Location | Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN |
| Date | Friday, 3-28-2025 |
| Tip-off | 10:09 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS, truTV |
Purdue vs Houston key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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