The Sacramento Kings have now dropped seven of their last nine games, and now the Oklahoma City Thunder stand in their way of a turnaround in Tuesday's nationally-televised matchup.
With Sacramento’s defense in disarray and Oklahoma City letting its opponents shoot from the Kings’ preferred spot on the floor, my Thunder vs Kings predictions will explain why this one could be a rather high-scoring affair.
Let’s dig into some NBA player props and hand out some NBA picks on Tuesday, March 25.
Thunder vs Kings prediction
My best bet: Over 232.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The song remains the same for the Sacramento Kings, whose offense has been heavily predicated on mid-range shooting this season. In the month of March, they continue to lead the league in shot frequency from this zone while hitting at the fifth-highest clip.
Since the start of the year, this has amounted to a very average offensive output by the efficiency metrics which is tough news considering this team does not play much defense.
Sacramento owns the seventh-worst defense in the NBA this season, and its issues have been most glaring at the rim and the 3-point arc, where it has allowed a higher percentage of looks to fall than any other team.
The Kings are giving up a ridiculous 75.1% field goal percentage at the rim, which in chorus with a 42.5% opposing 3-point percentage has created an unmitigated disaster.
The Oklahoma City Thunder has focused its offense around jumpers this month, shooting from the mid-range with the ninth-highest frequency and sitting in the middle of the league when it comes to the 3-point arc. The Thunder continue to devastate on this end, regardless of where they shoot, and enter this one as the top rim-scoring team in the league in March while ranking fourth in outside shooting.
That is just the last thing the Kings want to hear given their issues in both areas, but the saving grace could be that the Thunder have allowed the third-most mid-range shots over the same span while defending the zone at a below-average clip.
The Thunder have played at a top-10 pace all season long, and as they control this one it should mean plenty of possessions for both offenses. I see a slight window in for Sacramento on offense against a team that has been more than happy to let opponents shoot from the mid-range, and on the opposite end, the Thunder should have no issues scoring the ball.
That should amount to a high-scoring game.
Thunder vs Kings same-game parlay
Over 232.5
Malik Monk Over 17.5 points
Lu Dort Over 9.5 points
As we look to exploit the Kings’ glaring issues against the 3, we’ll back Lu Dort to keep up his solid month where he’s averaged over 10 points. Dort’s game is heavily focused around perimeter shooting, as he’s averaged almost seven 3-point attempts per game, and with his line on 3-pointers juiced I think backing him for a fourth 10-point night in his last five is the best move.
Then, we’ll lean on Malik Monk to take us home with a big scoring night. He’s averaged the second-most attempts from the short mid-range, where the Thunder have been particularly vulnerable. They have not only ranked just outside in the bottom 10 in that zone this month but have allowed the 11th-most shot attempts to boot.
Monk has gone over this number in four straight, averaging 25.5 points on 52.8% shooting, and is looking good to play after missing the last two contests.
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Thunder vs Kings odds
Thunder vs Kings live odds
Thunder vs Kings opening odds
- Spread: Oklahoma City -7.5 | Sacramento +7.5
- Moneyline: Oklahoma City -305 | Sacramento +320
- Over/Under: Over 226.5 | Under 226.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Thunder vs Kings spread and Over/Under analysis
- The spread has been one-way traffic, jumping one point towards Oklahoma City instantly upon opening and moving out to 10 points before settling there.
- The Thunder have taken on 71% of the bets and 73% of the handle wagered on the spread.
- The total has continued to climb as the day wears on, hitting a slight bit of resistance at 232.
- 68% of the tickets and a whopping 90% of the money are on the Over.
Thunder vs Kings trend
The Sacramento Kings have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 10 of their last 11 games at home (+8.85 Units / 68% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs Kings.
How to watch Thunder vs Kings
| Location | Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA |
| Date | Tuesday, 3-25-2025 |
| Tip-off | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT |
Thunder vs Kings latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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