Thunder vs Nuggets Picks and Predictions: OKC Heads Toward Rare Blowout in Denver

The Denver Nuggets (36-25, sixth in the West) have won six straight and are headed home for a four-game homestand that begins with a date with the Oklahoma City Thunder (19-42, 14th in the West). The Thunder may be in the middle of a rebuild and are dealing with a barrage of injuries, but they do possess the second-best record against the spread and have taken unsuspecting teams by surprise. 

Will the Nuggets slip within tonight's large margin or will they continue to feast?

Continue reading for more free NBA picks and predictions for the Thunder vs. Nuggets on Wednesday, March 2nd.

Thunder vs Nuggets odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Denver opened as 13.5-point favorites and has since moved up to -14.5. The total opened at 225.5 and moved as high as 227, but has since moved back to the original number.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Thunder vs Nuggets predictions

• Prediction: Nuggets -14.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Over 225.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Gilgeous-Alexander Over 26.5 points (-120)

Predictions made on 3/2/2022 at 3:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Thunder vs Nuggets game info

• Location: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
• Date: Wednesday, March 2, 2022
• Tip-off: 9:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Altitude, Bally Sports Oklahoma

Thunder vs Nuggets betting preview

Key injuries

Thunder: Josh Giddey SG (Out), Luguentz Dort SF (Out), Kenrich Williams SF (Out), Ty Jerome SG (Out), Mike Muscala C (Out), Aaron Wiggins SG (Out).
Nuggets: Michael Porter Jr. SF (Out), Jamal Murray PG (Out), Zeke Nnaji PF (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Thunder have played 5-0 to the Over in their last five games. Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Nuggets.

Thunder vs Nuggets picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

A lot is going right for the Nuggets as of late. In lieu of their current six-game win streak, they now sit three games ahead of the Timberwolves and the dreaded seventh seed that would potentially open them up to a quick exit through the play-in tournament. To make their postseason outlook even sweeter, it was reported yesterday that the organization is optimistic that both Jamaal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. will be back for the playoffs. Murray has missed the entirety of this season after tearing his ACL last April and Porter Jr. has not played since November 6 due to a back injury.

Nikola Jokic has carried much of the burden for Denver, putting together another season worthy of MVP consideration. He ranks first in Basketball Reference's MVP probability, first in FiveThirtyEight's RAPTOR WAR metric, and second in ESPN's PER ratings. Joel Embiid may be the current odds-on favorite to take home the award, but by season-end, James Harden may have taken enough production and spotlight away from Embiid to give Jokic the nod in the eyes of voters. If Jokic can keep the wins coming and land a four seed for Denver, the argument becomes even stronger.

Those wins will have to continue tonight with Denver beginning a four-game homestand against the Oklahoma City Thunder. One look at the Thunder’s 19-42 record instills a lot of confidence that Denver can do exactly that, but for betting purposes, the proposition is quite a bit tougher. The Thunder may be deliberately tanking, but they aren't entirely uncompetitive. Sam Presti and his staff likely understand the importance of not fostering a losing culture while they navigate their rebuild.

Yes, it may sound weird to suggest a 19-win team isn't fostering a losing culture, but the Thunder have shown they can put up a good fight. Oklahoma City has managed the second-best record against the spread this year at 36-21-4 (63.2%), which includes a 13-7 record as double-digit underdogs. Compare that to the 15-win Rockets, who have the second-worst against the spread record at 24-36-1 (40.0%) and a less impressive 9-10 record as double-digit underdogs.

Nevertheless, this current iteration of the Nuggets may be unlike a lot of the other teams the Thunder were heavy underdogs to. In the last two months, Michael Malone has made changes that have generated much better results. Since Christmas, the Nuggets are 21-9 and have possessed the fifth-best net and offensive rating in the league and the eighth-best defensive rating as well.

With the Thunder missing Luguentz Dort, standout rookie Josh Giddey, and several others, it's hard to imagine this particular version of the Thunder giving the Nuggets enough trouble. They trotted out a similar injury-ridden lineup against the Kings on Monday and lost by 21 at home, a team the Nuggets just swept in a home-and-home series in the last week.

Prediction: Nuggets -14.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

The Thunder, impressively, have the 10th-best defensive rating in the league, but their efforts as of late have not reflected that. In regulation, they have now given up 110+ in five straight games and an average of 120.8 points during that time. They have played 5-0 to the Over during that span and while they did go to overtime in two of those games, they had gone over the total by 17.5 and 19.5 points before overtime had even begun.

While Denver has seen elevated defensive play in recent months, the matchup tonight may be pointing towards the Nuggets letting in some points. The Thunder score 45.5% of their points inside the paint, the fourth-highest percentage in the league. That should come as no surprise, with Shai-Gilgeous Alexander (23.5 PPG, 5.6 APG) being one of the league's premier rim attackers.

SGA is leading the league with 23.7 drives per game and generates the second-most field goal attempts (10.1) and the most free throw attempts (3.8 per game) on those drives. After sitting nearly a month with an injury, he has come back arguably even better. He has eclipsed the 30-point mark and has shot 62% from the field in the three games since returning, and has gone to the line 14 and 12 times the last two games. That doesn't bode well for a Denver team that has allowed 49.1 points in the paint per game on the season, the eighth-most in the league. Even when just using the Nuggets’ defensive performance since Christmas, they still surrender the tenth-most points there.

Between the Thunder's poor defense as of late and SGA being able to attack Denver's softer interior defense, expect the points to come.

Prediction: Over 225.5 (-110)

Best bet

Although Denver should bring home a win tonight, there could rightfully be some concern about its ability to blow the game open. In the four times the Nuggets have been double-digit favorites, they have managed just a 1-3 record against the spread. And if they end up being too vulnerable to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's relentless drives, it certainly makes that lofty number a bit harder to play to.

Instead, it may be best to pivot on the one thing we can absolutely be certain of: SGA is going to attack the rim ad nauseum. And given the injuries to the Thunder’s second- and third-leading scorers (Dort and Giddey), Shai will continue to get the green light all night long. In the three games since returning, he has comfortably led the Thunder in field goal attempts each night, averaging 20.7 field goal attempts compared to the average of 14.7 attempts from the second-highest marks during those games.

We can safely expect the volume and given that he's been brilliant in terms of efficiency and his ability to get to the line, this is the best bet on the board.

Pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 26.5 points (-120)

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