Thunder vs Raptors Picks and Predictions: Toronto Can't Cover Lofty Spread Against Healthy OKC

The Toronto Raptors enter tonight’s game against the Oklahoma City Thunder with a little momentum. They have finally tasted some success at home, winning their last two to Scotiabank Arena and covering the spread in each game.

Meanwhile, the Thunder also come into this one feeling a little better about themselves after snapping an eight-game losing streak. Will OKC give Toronto some problems as a 7.5-point underdog, or will the Raps take care of business? 

Find out in our free NBA betting picks and predictions for Thunder vs. Raptors on December 8.

Thunder vs Raptors odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

The Raptors opened this matchup as 7-point home favorites and have seen an edge in the early betting action with the line moving to 7.5. The total hit the board at 208.5 and the Under has been hit fairly hard, moving the O/U to as low as 206.5.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Thunder vs Raptors predictions

• Prediction: Thunder +7.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 207 (-110)
• Best bet: Under 207 (-110)
• Best bet: Jeremiah Robinson-Earl Under 7.5 points (-120)

Predictions made on 12/08/2021 at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Thunder vs Raptors game info

• Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
• Date: Wednesday, December 8, 2021
• Tip-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: Sportsnet, Bally Sports Oklahoma

Thunder vs Raptors betting preview

Injuries

Thunder: No injuries to report.
Raptors: OG Anunoby SF (Out), Khem Birch C (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 5-0 in the Thunder's last five vs. a team with a losing straight-up record and 4-0 in the Raptors' last four overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Raptors.

Thunder vs Raptors picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

The Raptors come into this game as winners of two in a row. Both at home. Now, those games both closed with Toronto as 1-point favorites. One game was against the Bucks, who rested Giannis Antetokounmpo, and the other against a struggling Wizards team.

So, how will that translate to a game where the Raptors are expected to win by a relatively large margin? 

Well, despite the recent success, it’s not like the Raps were exactly shooting the lights out in those two wins, averaging just 99.5 points per game and shooting 41.9% from the field. And while the Thunder struggle mightily on offense (more on that in a bit), they do a decent job on the other end of the floor.

The Thunder rank 18th in the NBA in defensive rating and 13th in opponent field goal percentage. 

On top of that, OKC is getting healthy. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey are back to help out Lu Dort & Co. Their return certainly helped in Monday's 114-103 win over the Pistons. 

While Toronto is obviously a better team than Detroit, they are still without arguably their best player in OG Anunoby and a key rotation piece in Khem Birch. I like Toronto to win this game, but asking them to cover 7.5 points is a little much, particularly when you consider its 3-9 record against the spread at home and the fact that they haven’t covered as favorites of 2.5 points or more this season (0-5 ATS).

Prediction: Thunder +7.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

The early money has been on the Under and it's easy to see why.

For starters, the Thunder have arguably the worst offense in the NBA. They rank dead last in the Association in both offensive rating and points per game, putting up just 98.8 points per contest. And while the return of SGA will help the Thunder out, this team still has a long way to go before it becomes an efficient offense.

Now, they face a Raptors defense that still causes a lot of turnovers and has held three straight teams below 100 points.

Meanwhile, the Raptors offense has also struggled. Obviously, missing OG hurts a bunch, but the Raps really need to find a much better way to supplement his scoring. The team is averaging only 96.8 points per game and shooting just 41% of the floor over the last five. That ranks last next-to-last in the NBA over that stretch.

On top of that, neither of these teams play at a very high tempo with the Thunder ranking 15th in pace and the Raps at 28th. The Under looks like one of the best bets in this matchup.

Prediction: Under 207 (-110)

Best bet

For starters, it wouldn’t be a shock for both of these teams to land below 100 points on Wednesday, so the Under 207 automatically becomes the best bet. But why stop there?

Now that the Thunder are getting healthy and returning players to the rotation there is going to be a dropoff somewhere. Maybe not a bunch, considering the state of the Thunder offense, but someone like Jeremiah Robinson-Earl could see his numbers dip.

The rookie center averages just 6.8 points per game this season, but he has scored just four total points over the last two games while also seeing his minutes diminish. Now, he faces a Raptors team that allows the fifth-fewest points in the paint. 

Bet on Robinson-Earl to be contained by the Raps in this one and land below his low points total.

Pick: Under 207 (-110)

Pick: Jeremiah Robinson-Earl Under 7.5 Points (-120)

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