Thunder vs Warriors Picks and Predictions: Everybody in the Poole

The Warriors have been unstoppable at home. Does that remain true on Monday with Stephen Curry missing against a surging Thunder team?

The Warriors and Thunder played a tight game in Oklahoma City a week ago, with Curry ultimately pushing Golden State over the top through a 38-point performance. Now the star guard is out, and the defending champions need to once again find a way to win without him.

Let’s break down how his absence could put Dub Nation in a tough spot with our Thunder vs. Warriors free NBA picks and predictions.

Thunder vs Warriors best odds

Thunder vs Warriors picks and predictions

If you’re looking to capitalize on the injury to Curry, Jordan Poole is the clear target. The honorary splash brother gets a Usage Rate increase of 5.6% when Curry is off the floor this season, and his numbers are much better. He’s averaging 3.9 more points per 36 minutes, and Poole is registering 1.5 more 3-point attempts per 36 minutes.

Poole took 9.9 threes per game in the 11 consecutive contests Curry missed in December. While he shot just 27.5% from deep, his attempts were a sign that Poole holds command of the offense when replacing Curry. He has the autonomy to take whatever shot the 23-year-old really wants.

That's why I feel confident investing in some Poole stock on Monday night. He was able to score 27.9 points per game in 34.6 minutes over that 11-game stretch without Curry. While his assist and rebound numbers haven’t been much different, I'm buying into the huge increase in usage without Curry, which will get us across the finish line on this bet.

Take a strong look at Over 3.5 threes made at big plus odds since Poole is better than the 27.5% shooter from deep that he was when Curry sat previously, but the value here is on this prop. While the Thunder haven’t been the worst defense in the world, they're allowing 24.8 points per game to opposing point guards, which ranks among the NBA's bottom 10. And they’re also rating pretty poorly while allowing 2.8 threes per game to the position.

My best bet: Jordan Poole Over 32.5 points, rebounds, and assists (-120 at BetMGM)

Thunder vs Warriors spread analysis

There’s been some slight movement toward the Thunder here, with the line opening at five points and shifting to four, and even 3.5 in some places. DraftKings is reporting that Golden State is drawing 60% of the spread bets, while a commanding 72% of the money is with the home team. That makes the line movement here a little odd.

The reason for all the public money on the Warriors is surely that they’ve been nearly unstoppable at home. Entering play on Monday, the defending champs are a commanding 20-6 straight up in the Bay Area. However, they’re just 15-10-1 against the spread at home. But that's still 60%, and a lot better than Golden State’s 8-18 ATS road record.

The number here makes sense, but I’d still lean toward taking the points with the Thunder. Curry was just injured, and we normally see teams go through a bit of an adjustment period after a major injury occurs. Secondly, Golden State was 5-6 ATS during that 11-game stretch without Curry.

The Thunder are a very dangerous team to play for Golden State. They’re No. 3 in Net Rating over the last 10 games, and they're playing exceptional defense, particularly on the perimeter.

Thunder vs Warriors Over/Under analysis

The Warriors' defensive efficiency has increased 1.1 points per 100 possessions with Curry on the floor. On offense? They’re 10.3 points better per 100 possessions. It’s very clear where the two-time MVP makes his mark.

The Warriors’ pace rating with Curry is also a ridiculously high 105.35. Without him it’s 102.47.

So you’re going to see a slower-paced game without Curry and Golden State struggling mightily on offense. That’s doubly true when you consider that Oklahoma City is eighth in Defensive Rating over its last 10 contests.

Stay away from the total here. The opening number was 238.5, and that’s now been bet down as far as 233.5 points. The difference in the Warriors’ production is baked into this number. But if you wanted to bet on a low-scoring or high-scoring game, there’s a clear side to take. Go with the Under.

Thunder vs Warriors betting trend to know

The Over is 6-5 during the Warriors' 11 games without Curry in 2022-23. Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Warriors.

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