Timberwolves vs Mavericks Picks and Predictions: Offenses Waste No Time

Kyrie Irving’s home debut with the Dallas Mavericks comes against a remade Minnesota Timberwolves roster, but Minnesota’s improved perimeter defense should still be no match for the Mavericks’ new dynamic duo.

Here are our free NBA betting picks and predictions for the Timberwolves vs Mavericks on February 13.

Timberwolves vs Mavericks best odds

Timberwolves vs Mavericks picks and predictions

The Mavericks made a clear choice in trading for this particular mercurial point guard. They cut the brake lines and installed a NOS valve next to Luka Doncic’s steering wheel. No one has ever watched Kyrie Irving and marveled at his defense. Luka can at least play physically, but his offensive workload has long limited his defensive intensity.

That one-dimensional style has shown up in Irving’s first three games with the Mavericks, and it showed up right out of the gates. Dallas has scored 41, 45 and 32 points in the first quarters of Irving’s three games. The sample size obviously warrants some disclaimer, but the disparity between those three games and the rest of the Mavericks’ season is too stark to ignore.

Before Kyrie’s arrival, Dallas averaged 29.3 points per first quarter. In his three games, that jumped to 39.3. That former number is not a reflection of early-season struggles: The Mavericks averaged 28.7 points per first quarter from New Year’s up to the trade for Kyrie. It is a reflection of Irving’s undeniable offensive prowess and want to push the ball.

At some point, his focus may wander. History expects as much. But in his first game in front of his new home audience, Kyrie will once again want to start strong and fast.

Outside of trades involving the Brooklyn Nets, the Timberwolves made the biggest trade-deadline move. Swapping out D’Angelo Russell for Mike Conley was intended to add some discipline and defense to Minnesota’s promising roster, and it should. Russell was a defensive liability, while Conley is an above-average defensive point guard, even well into his 30s.

But there is an added aspect to the trade: Conley has years of experience of playing with Timberwolves center Rudy Gobert.

He knows how to work with the towering Frenchman around the rim, how to set him up for easy buckets, how to manipulate defenders in that space. So bringing in Conley will improve Minnesota’s offense in some regards. Maybe the overall rating drops by a couple points, but his arrival is not entirely an offensive loss.

The Timberwolves have averaged 29.0 points per first quarter since Jan. 1 and 29.2 in their last 10 games. Their offense stalled twice in that stretch — scoring just 19 at Denver on Tuesday and 17 against Sacramento in late January, though those were both the second games of two-game series, coincidentally or not — but otherwise, the Wolves have scored at least 26 points in the first quarter in every game since Jan. 9.

That is 16 of 18 games in which Minnesota has played well enough out of the gates, and the two exceptions may have been scheduling quirks as much as anything else.

Yet, the first-quarter total tonight is Under 60 points. A number like that assumes Kyrie Irving will not put on an early show for his new home crowd AND Minnesota will fall short of an adequate showing. If either becomes reality, with both likelihoods, then the Over should cash with ease.

My best bet: First quarter Over 59.5 points (-115 at FanDuel)

Timberwolves vs Mavericks spread analysis

This spread has toggled between favoring the Mavericks by 7.5 points and by 8.0 points. If either Kyle Anderson or Rudy Gobert is a game-time scratch that would raise the spread by at least a point, but given both played in Friday’s loss to the Grizzlies, it should be assumed they will play tonight.

Much of Minnesota’s successes or failures have hinged on Anderson to an extent that would surprise most casual fans. He has been battling back spasms for much of 2023, and sometimes that turns a start into a short appearance.

When Anderson has played at least 20 minutes, the Timberwolves are 9-3 ATS since Jan. 11. When he has sat out or played fewer than 20 minutes, such as Friday’s 17-minute struggle, Minnesota has gone 1-5 ATS.

Timberwolves vs Mavericks Over/Under analysis

This total has climbed from opening at 231.0 or 231.5, depending on your book, up to a consensus 232.5. That may be an ode to Kyrie. It may also reflect decent rest for the Timberwolves, playing only their second game in the last five days.

Dallas has been a profitable team to the Over this season, posting a 32-26 record that way. Since the arrival of Kyrie and his offensive talent, the Mavs are 2-1 to the Over, and it's hard to imagine a pairing of Luka and Irving playing to Unders often.

As for Minnesota, it has gone 28-30-1 to the Under this year, but over the last five games, the Wolves have seen the total surpassed five times. All recent trends point to this game passing the 231.5 total set by the books.

Timberwolves vs Mavericks betting trend to know

The Over is 4-0-1 in Minnesota’s last five games, as well as 2-1 in Kyrie Irving’s three games with Dallas. Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Mavericks.

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