Timberwolves vs Nuggets Game 5 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: No More Joking Around

The Minnesota Timberwolves' summer vacation plans will have to wait. 

Despite an insane blitzkrieg comeback by the Denver Nuggets to force overtime in Game 4, they weren't able to complete the sweep, and now head home as 9.5-point favorites for Game 5 on Tuesday, April 25. 

Looking like it's been in control for the vast majority of this series, can Denver kill the complacency and finish off the pups? Our NBA picks for the Timberwolves vs. Nuggets think the two-time MVP will have his say.

Timberwolves vs Nuggets Game 5 best odds

Timberwolves vs Nuggets Game 5 picks and predictions

Nikola Jokic is pissed off. He knows he was a free throw away from the first sweep in franchise history and a few extra days off. And for a guy who doesn't show a ton of emotion, Jokic is an absolute killer who isn't going to keep messing around and let Minnesota delay Denver's advancement any further. 

It's natural for a team up 3-0 to not bring its most consistent effort in Game 4, but aside from getting lulled into a false sense of security, the Nuggets were also hit with a defensive adjustment that altered their offensive harmony.

The Timberwolves ceased selling out on stopping Jokic, instead staying at home on cutters and pass-away shooters. The results are somewhat telling: 

Game 1: Jokic 13 points in 28 mins, sleepwalks through a blowout win

Game 2: Jokic 27 points & 9 assists, Jamal Murray 40 points, Wolves lose again

Game 3: Jokic 20 points & 12 assists, Wolves lose again

Game 4: Jokic 43 points, but only 6 assists, Wolves...win?

This doesn't mean Minnesota won because it let Jokic go to work instead of facilitating — it got Denver's C- effort for most of the game and still was very lucky to escape alive. But the Wolves are alive, and highly unlikely to shift their defensive ethos after getting the result they needed in Game 4.

Jokic is unlikely to do anything but keep murdering them, regardless of who's covering him. He's never had any issues torturing Rudy Gobert in the high post, and if Minnesota decides again to move Karl-Anthony Towns onto Jokic Island — as it briefly and dubiously did late in Game 4 — it won't like what happens. 

Joker's popcorn stat markets are insultingly low entering a game where he'll have both onus and opportunity to assert himself. Books are dangling his points at either 24.5 or 25.5, and points + rebounds + assists at 45.5 to 46.5, and I'm totally okay firing both and taking the higher total to fade juice.

Even with Game 1's field day factored in, Jokic is averaging 25.8 ppg and 45.4 PRA in this series. Remove that outlier and those numbers balloon to 30 ppg and 49.6 PRA, which are more realistic floors for his production tonight.

Yeah, floor. Because these markets still don't seem to be taking the situation into consideration, and just how poorly-equipped Minnesota is to stop an angry and motivated Jokic in a second elimination game that he probably feels shouldn't exist to begin with.

He hasn't had to try for most of this series, but that's going to change tonight. Even if the Wolves continue to let him operate as a scorer, he'll tally enough to buoy his reduced assist numbers for the PRA market. 

My best bet: Nikola Jokic Over 25.5 points and Over 46.5 points + rebounds + assists

Timberwolves vs Nuggets Game 5 spread analysis

This line sits at Nuggets -9.5 at most books as of Tuesday morning, and I'm not entirely inclined to fire unless a wave of public money comes in Minnesota and drops this a point or so — which is about as likely as Michael Porter Jr. winning DPOY next year. 

The spread has generally seen little movement. After Pinnacle opened at -8.5 and the Denver side was quickly hit by sharps, we're left with the -9.5, with Pinnacle having even moved to -10. This is just out of range for me.

While it's very unlikely the Wolves win this game, they — and in particular, Anthony Edwards — showed enough fight in Game 4 that I don't think they'll just wilt away in this game, and Denver's propensity to get butchered in non-Jokic minutes (despite him being an entirely anomalous -14 in Game 4) is bad news both for Denver preserving a large lead against a desperate team, and fading a backdoor cover if this isn't close in the final few minutes.

The Nuggets are 5-1 against the spread in their last six after an ATS loss, but I don't really recommend trend-mining in this spot, as little about regular-season garbage time will translate to the playoffs.

Timberwolves vs Nuggets Game 5 Over/Under analysis

Scoring in this series has come fairly tepidly for two teams with strong offenses that project as average-ish on defense. While the Wolves finished the regular season ranked 10th in D-rating, they played the majority of it without Towns, a porous defender who Jokic can attack whether he's covering him or a neighboring cutter (or hell, the guy he's not looking at in the opposite corner, this is Nikola Jokic).

While Games 2 and 3 soared to 231 and 235 points, respectively, Game 1 was a 189-point dud, while Game 4 ran up just 222 points despite going to OT. This series has really been a tale of two cities output wise, with a line reflecting as much tonight. 

The total sits at 220.5 or 221.5 as of Tuesday morning, depending on where you're looking. Both seem ripe for an Over in the case of an offense-leaning matchup, which is what I'd picture tonight with the Wolves desperate and the Nuggets hungry to put this one to bed. 

Granted, Denver's done a good job of slowing this series to a crawl, playing to a glacial 95.3 pace rating, with only the predictably molasses-like Cavs-Knicks and Nets-Sixers matchups plodding along slower.

This is more of a lean, but I think we'll see Denver more engaged and flexing its muscle — which will almost always be on offense. That lends itself to the Over, but we could still be crawling for 48 minutes, which makes me hesitant to suggest firing away. 

Timberwolves vs Nuggets betting trend to know

Timberwolves are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings. Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Nuggets.

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