Timberwolves vs Nuggets Picks and Predictions: Minnesota Will Pounce Early in Game 1

The Minnesota Timberwolves may have taken the scenic route to get to the NBA Playoffs, but they’re here all the same.

After losing the No. 7 seed play-in game to L.A., Minnesota rallied for the No. 8 spot in the Western Conference with a one-sided victory over Oklahoma City and now has the honor of taking on the top-seeded Denver Nuggets in the Western quarterfinals.

Denver is a sizable home favorite for Sunday’s Game 1, but could there be a mismatch in intensity between these two teams?

Minnesota has been fighting for its postseason life the past three weeks, with that pressure peaking in the play-in tournament. The Nuggets, on the other hand, cruised to the end of the season and haven’t played a meaningful game since clinching the No. 1 seed on April 5 (on another team’s loss, nonetheless).

I dig into the spread and Over/Under total for Game 1 and give my best NBA picks and predictions for Timberwolves at Nuggets on April 16.

Timberwolves vs Nuggets best odds

Timberwolves vs Nuggets picks and predictions

There’s something to be said about the playoff mindset when it comes to the second season.

While the seeding matchup leans heavily toward the top-ranked Denver Nuggets, who are -550 to win this quarterfinal series, the Minnesota Timberwolves have been in do-or-die mode for nearly a month.

Minnesota is especially in a different gear after needing two play-in games to grab that ticket to the tournament. Despite losing to the Lakers in a fugly overtime affair Tuesday, the Timberwolves have been playing pretty good basketball – most notably right out of the gate.

The team held a 60-49 halftime lead over the Lakers and edged OKC 57-47 at the break in those play-in outings. Those strong efforts in the first 24 minutes are nothing new for Minnesota, which ranks among the better offenses in the opening two frames, averaging 59 first-half points per contest on the year.

Though Denver is just as capable of putting up points early on, the Nuggets have seen their first-half efforts dwindle as the season dragged on.

Denver was the second-best 1H scoring attack in the NBA before the All-Star break (60.7 1H ppg), but those points in the opening 24 minutes sunk to 57.5 after the annual hiatus (18th) and that opening intensity plummeted to 54.5 average 1H points in the final 10 games of the season.

Sure, some of that regression has to do with late-season injuries, rest spots, and meaningless matchups, but the Nuggets have remained docile for a while now, having last played a game that mattered to the postseason picture way back on April 4.

Denver now must wipe the sleep out of its eyes in time for this opener against a Timberwolves team not only in the midst of the playoff mindset but one that likes to come out swinging. Minnesota’s quick starts paid dividends for derivative bettors this season, going 49-35 against the first-half spread, including a 27-15 1H ATS mark on the road.

Minnesota's best approach against Denver is to turn up the tempo and score buckets in transition. The Wolves are Top 8 in points per play in transition while the Nuggets' have found themselves back peddling against those attacks, giving up a scoring frequency of 52.8 to transition teams (11th highest).

The Timberwolves averaged 17 fastbreak points over the four meetings with Denver this season — a notable jump from their season average of 14.7 — and 13 of those fastbreak tallies came in the first half.

Things could balance out in the second half as the Nuggets work off the rust and Minnesota hits the wall, and this overall series will likely swing the way the NBA odds project, but if the Timberwolves have a chance to put the top seed on its heels, it's going to be in the first 24 minutes of Sunday's series opener.

My best bet: Timberwolves first half +4.5 (-115 at bet365)

Timberwolves vs Nuggets spread analysis

Following Minnesota’s 120-95 blowout of OKC, oddsmakers opened Denver as a 7.5-point home favorite for Sunday’s Game 1. That spread has since climbed as high as Nuggets -8 with the juice as short as EVEN money.

Denver finished the regular season as the best home bet in the West, owning a 25-15-1 ATS mark and a net rating of +9.6 inside Ball Arena.

In fact, the home team has won all four head-to-head matchups between the Nuggets and Timberwolves (Minnesota 3-1 ATS overall), most recently a 146-112 ass-waxing by Denver in front of the Mile High faithful on February 7, covering as 8-point chalk.

The Nuggets haven’t been as dominant since the All-Star break, with star Nikola Jokic nursing nagging injuries and mixed motivations leading to losing results. Denver went 12-11 SU and ATS in its last 23 games of the schedule, including a 7-3 SU and 5-5 ATS mark at home.

As mentioned, the Nuggets have had the No. 1 seed locked up since April 5 and haven’t played since a throwaway game in the season finale on April 9, in which the team rested all its starters and limited key reserves against Sacramento.

Minnesota enters the weekend on high alert after scratching and clawing its way into the tournament. The Timberwolves made a late-season push for the postseason with star big man Karl-Anthony Towns returning to action after missing the bulk of the season and is 7-4 SU and ATS in its last 11 games since.

Timberwolves vs Nuggets Over/Under analysis

The Over/Under for this series opener hit the board at 226.5 points and has slimmed to 224.5 as of Sunday morning.

That number is shorter than the closing totals of the four meetings between Denver and Minnesota this season (2-1-1 O/U), with those Over/Unders ranging from 226 points (with Towns, Jokic, and Jamal Murray out) to as high as 241.

Those games were played at an average pace rating of 102.13, which leans more into the Timberwolves’ up-tempo attack. Minnesota finished the season ranked seventh in pace rating but watched that up-and-down approach slow in the post-break sked. The Wolves played Under in both play-in games and went 2-6 O/U in its last eight games of the regular season.

Denver is among the more methodical offenses in the NBA, with a pace rating of 97.45 since the All-Star break. It finished 38-43-1 O/U on the year, but a good share of those Under results came in the final 13 games in which the Nuggets went 2-10-1 O/U.

Ball Arena is a tough stop for any team, with the thin air challenging their cardio and the Nuggets owning a defensive rating of 112.2 as hosts since the break.

The Timberwolves are coming in with a decisive handicap in terms of rest, having traveled to L.A. for Tuesday’s game and then back home for Thursday’s win over OKC before playing in Denver for this 10:30 p.m. ET tipoff tonight.

Timberwolves vs Nuggets betting trend to know

The Timberwolves are 49-35 against first-half spreads this season, including a 27-15 1H ATS mark on the road. Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Nuggets.

Timberwolves vs Nuggets game info

Timberwolves vs Nuggets key injuries

Pages related to this topic