Timberwolves vs Nuggets Picks and Predictions: Russell Stays Red-Hot Ahead of Deadline

For the second game in a row, the Minnesota Timberwolves face the Denver Nuggets, but tonight’s matchup could not look more different than Sunday’s. 

First of all, it is in Denver. Secondly, the Nuggets should have a full lineup, not the G-League squad they trotted out in Minnesota 48 hours ago.

Here are our free NBA picks and predictions for the Timberwolves vs. Nuggets on February 7, with tip set for 9:00 ET.

Timberwolves vs Nuggets best odds

Timberwolves vs Nuggets picks and predictions

Sunday didn’t happen. As far as any thoughts moving forward are concerned, the Timberwolves and Nuggets did not play on Sunday. The only fact that matters from that 30-point Minnesota victory is it helped the Timberwolves maintain pace in the glut of the Western Conference standings.

Minnesota not only winning each quarter but also scoring at least 31 points in each quarter does not matter when looking at tonight’s game, or any Denver game moving forward. The Nuggets shooting 24 percent from deep should not be taken as a worry. Denver was without four of its Top 7 shooters, and Nuggets head coach Michael Malone opted not to play a fifth, Bones Hyland.

Sunday didn’t happen.

Ignoring it, Denver has a net rating of +9.5 since New Year’s, shooting a casual 40.5 percent from deep as a team. Disregard that game Sunday, and the Nuggets' defensive rating would rank No. 7 in the league since New Year’s, and their offensive rating would be tied for No. 1.

This is a genuine title contender, no matter who Dallas just traded for or how Milwaukee increasingly looks at full health. There is a reason the Nuggets are favored by 8.5 points tonight, and finding a distinct side on that is risky. Too much is on the line for the Timberwolves. Too little is for Denver.

Too much is on the line for Minnesota because that will be the case every night for the next couple months. A win tonight would bump the Timberwolves into a tie for the No. 5 seed in the West; a loss would leave them knotted with the Pelicans at the No. 8 seed.

If that is the case for the next couple of months, is there anything that makes tonight unique? Of course there is: The trade deadline is less than 48 hours away.

And what Timberwolf is included in the most trade discussions? D’Angelo Russell.

Only Klay Thompson is shooting hotter than Russell since Jan. 1. Of players with at least eight 3s attempted per game, only Thompson’s 45.5 percent from deep is better than Russell’s 45.2 percent.

In his last 10 games, Russell has averaged 22.7 points per game while shooting 44.7 percent from deep on 10.3 attempts per game. He has played so well he may have made it so Minnesota can’t trade him. 

This kind of shooting efficiency would be too valuable in the playoffs, and the Timberwolves still have thoughts of a playoff run, given how wide-open the West is, particularly with Steph Curry’s latest injury and the Lakers’ inability to land that loudmouth point guard from out east.

Yet, Russell’s points prop tonight is set at only 18.5 with tolerable juice toward the Over. He has scored more than 18 points in nine of his last 10 games.

This is his last chance to play so well so as to prevent being traded, and with all due respect to Denver’s defense, Russell with personal motivation has long been an efficient scorer. It’s how he secured his max contract in the first place.

My best bet: D’Angelo Russell Over 18.5 points (-118)

Timberwolves vs Nuggets spread analysis

This line has bounced around in ways that scream overreactions. It opened Monday afternoon as low as -6.5 at some books before opening more widely with the Nuggets favored by 7.5 on Monday evening. There was no discernable reason for it to climb to -9.5 by Tuesday morning.

Thus, it fell back to -8.5 early this afternoon.

At home, Denver is a covering machine, going 11-3 ATS since Dec. 30. The Nuggets are just 29-25 ATS on the season, including 2-4 on the road since Dec. 30, though that includes Sunday’s laugher.

That spectacular at-home rate includes 6-1 ATS against the West’s glut, and most of those were spreads similar to this one or bigger.

Timberwolves vs Nuggets Over/Under analysis

The total has fallen from 236.0 late Monday to 233.5 on Tuesday. If forced to guess the reasoning for that move, it would be that there is increased confidence Minnesota center Rudy Gobert will play. His presence lowers the score on both ends.

His defense is obvious. Offensively, the Timberwolves have an offensive rating of 117.1 without Gobert and a 113.4 rating with him.

Timberwolves vs Nuggets betting trend to know

The Over is 4-0-1 in Denver’s last five games. Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Nuggets.

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