Anthony Edwards has cost the Minnesota Timberwolves in their last two games, even if he did not play in their most recent one or in the final quarter before that. His Thursday night ejection and subsequent suspension played a clear part in Minnesota losing both games, and now Edwards should attempt to redeem himself against the Phoenix Suns.
Fortunately, the piece of his game that has surged in the last month will not be diminished by the return of Julius Randle, and that is why my Timberwolves vs. Suns prediction will back Edwards.
My NBA picks look at Edwards’ points prop for a handful of reasons. Tip comes at 9:30 ET on Sunday, March 2.
Timberwolves vs Suns prediction
My best bet
Anthony Edwards Over 26.5 points (-125 at bet365)
My analysis
Anthony Edwards should not have been ejected on Thursday. He should not have received either technical foul. The first came from a referee aggressively issuing double technicals in a situation that had already died down and was never going to re-escalate. The second came because the officials missed a clear defensive foul, Edwards getting kicked on a drive.
Nonetheless, Edwards was ejected. And he has racked up so many technical fouls this season, he was suspended for Friday night.
Edwards knows he cost the Minnesota Timberwolves, never a good thing but a particularly bad thing as the team tries to claw its way out of the Play-In Tournament.
Expecting Edwards to score tonight to make up for that is an obvious thought process, but it is also one with further logic. Edwards averaged 30.7 points in 10 February games despite shooting much worse than he did in the season’s first half. While his 3-point percentage fell by 8.7%, how did he keep scoring?
Edwards averaged 10 trips to the free-throw line in February, compared to 5.3 per game before that. And this emphasis should not falter, not even while Edwards and the NBA referees clearly do not get along.
The Phoenix Suns rank No. 19 in free-throw attempts allowed per game in the last month, a ranking low enough to assure Edwards continues his most reliable scoring trend.
And the return of Julius Randle to the lineup, presumably on a minutes restriction, should not cut into Edwards’ chances to drive with aggression. Randle demands more honest defense than the rest of Edwards’ running mates do, which should cut into the double teams Ant struggles to work through.
Edwards kickstarted his February scoring by pouring in 33 at Phoenix on Jan. 29, buoyed by going 8 of 9 at the line. Expect that same performance tonight, in part because Edwards cost the Timberwolves this weekend.
Timberwolves vs Suns same-game parlay
Anthony Edwards Over 26.5 points
Jaden McDaniels Under 14.5 points
Devin Booker Under 26.5 points
Randle’s return may not cut into Edwards’ points, but it should reduce Jaden McDaniels’ newfound offensive aggressiveness. McDaniels’s usage rate without Randle in the lineup has been 20.0% this season but just 14.9% with him available. His scoring jumped eight points in 13 games without Randle, to 18.5 from 10.5.
McDaniels plays better at power forward these days, and Randle’s return will obviously cut into that.
Tonight, though, McDaniels should still stay engaged. He and Devin Booker very much do not get along. Lessening McDaniels’ offensive workload often leads to worse defensive showings from him, but tonight’s defensive assignment induces all of his competitive juices. With Booker coming off a public chiding from Suns head coach Mike Budenholzer, McDaniels’ relentlessness may slow the Phoenix superstar quicker than usual.
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Timberwolves vs Suns odds
Timberwolves vs Suns live odds
Timberwolves vs Suns opening odds
- Spread: Minnesota +1.5 | Phoenix -1.5
- Moneyline: Minnesota +100 | Phoenix -120
- Over/Under: Over 227 | Under 227
Odds courtesy of bet365
Timberwolves vs Suns spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Suns opened as 1.5-point favorites on Saturday evening, a number that reached -2 early on Sunday morning before returning to -1.5 before lunch.
- While that line movement is minimal, it would be bold to assign the move back to -1.5 to Randle’s return. It was not entirely unexpected, and he will be on a minutes restriction.
- The total opened at 227 and peaked at 230 in the overnight, then continuing to climb in the morning to 232.5 before settling at 232.
Timberwolves vs Suns trend
Since sports betting became regulated in the U.S., last year’s Atlanta Hawks were the worst against the spread team in the NBA, going 29-53 ATS. The Suns are currently on pace to go 29-52-1 ATS. Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Suns.
How to watch Timberwolves vs Suns
| Location | PHX Arena, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date | Sunday, 3-2-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Timberwolves vs Suns latest injuries
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