Golden State can become the first team to advance to the conference finals with a win in Memphis in Game 5.
Without Ja Morant, it's hard to imagine the Grizzlies mounting a comeback from this 3-1 deficit, so at this point, they are playing as much for pride as for anything else.
Here are our free NBA picks and predictions for the Warriors vs the Grizzlies on May 11.
Warriors vs Grizzlies odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Memphis opened as a 3-point underdog a bit after midnight Tuesday morning, and that knocked between +2.5 and +3.5 into the afternoon. When the Grizzlies then ruled out Ja Morant for the rest of the playoffs, as widely expected, that pushed this line to +4 and even +4.5 at some books.
The total opened at 219.5, quickly jumping to 220.5 at most books before falling Tuesday evening to 218.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Warriors vs Grizzlies predictions
Predictions made on 5/10/2022 at 3:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for the NBA Playoffs, here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users can bet $20 and get $200 in free bets with Caesars! Sign Up Now
B) New users can get two risk-free bets up to $2,000 at PointsBet! Claim Now
*Eligible USA locations only
Warriors vs Grizzlies game info
• Location: FedExForum, Memphis, TN
• Date: Wednesday, May 11, 2022
• Tip-off: 9:30 p.m. ET
• TV: TNT
Warriors vs Grizzlies series odds
Warriors: -5,000
Grizzlies: +1,800
Warriors vs Grizzlies betting preview
Key injuries
Warriors: Andre Iguodala SG (Out), Gary Payton II PG (Out), James Wiseman C (Out).
Grizzlies: Ja Morant PG (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 6-2 in the last eight matchups in Memphis between these two, including an Under by 21 points in Game 2. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Grizzlies.
Warriors vs Grizzlies picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
This is just too much of an ask for the Grizzlies sans Morant. As good as they were this season when he was out of the lineup — 20-5 in the regular season, 0-1 now in the postseason — a postseason series against the Warriors core is a different type of task.
Of those 20 wins, 11 came against teams that did not make the playoffs. With Tyus Jones leading the way, Memphis still beat six of the other seven teams still alive in the playoffs — it lost to Boston in the only such meeting on the last day of the regular season — but going 9-4 without Morant would have warranted notably less praise than that 20-5 mark did. Still praise, but less praise.
The postseason mark should end 0-2. The Grizzlies have no way to match the Warriors’ offensive output without Morant driving to the rim on more possessions than not.
Even when Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Jordan Poole combined to go 4-of-24 from deep in Game 4 — which stat is more damning, that one or that Thompson and Poole shooting 0-of-10?
Memphis lost by three, a margin halved by an absolutely meaningless 3-pointer at the buzzer. Assume the Splash Triplets fare just a touch better tonight and suddenly a 4-point spread feels far too small.
As much as the Grizzlies crowd is a raucous one and deserves credit, it will not faze the veteran Warriors. Steph, Klay, and Draymond Green have seen and done it all.
Memphis’ only hope all along was an otherworldly series from Morant. He may have been capable of it, and it is a shame none of us will get to know.
Without him, the Grizzlies’ season is inevitably ending.
What is peculiar about this line is how it seems to undervalue Morant, perhaps a reflection of that 20-5 record inflated against the dredges of the league. In Games 1 and 2, the Warriors were slim favorites of -2.5 and -1.5, respectively, at Memphis.
Bumping the expected margin by only 1.5-2.5 points when one of the league’s bright young stars is absent may be the rare moment when Vegas does not properly acknowledge the impact one player can have.
No other Grizzly averaged more than 19 points; Ja averaged 27.4 this season. Jones was No. 2 on the team in assists per game at 4.4, a significant drop from Ja’s 6.7. Third? That would be Steven Adams with 3.4.
Morant trailed only Adams and Jaren Jackson Jr. in rebounds per game. He took 7.3 free throws per game, nearly three more than Jackson in second on the team with 4.4.
This will not come across as hyperbole to anyone who watched just a few Memphis games this season: Morant was the Grizzlies. Without him tonight, their fate has already been sealed.
Prediction: Warriors -4 (-105 at PointsBet)
Over/Under analysis
The mere absence of Morant drops a total precipitously. His defense is far from stellar, but the most basic of advanced metrics make it clear how much better Memphis is on defense without him.
In those 25 games without Morant this regular season, the Grizzlies had a defensive rating of 104.0, per StatMuse. With him, they came in at 112.3.
To give those figures some context, without Ja, Memphis’ defense would have been the best in the league across the season by a significant margin, as far from the next team (Golden State and Boston, tied) as those two were from No. 7. But with Ja, the Grizzlies would have ranked among also-rans like the Spurs, Magic, and Thunder.
So that explains this total being 4.5 points lower than in Game 4 and 9.5 lower than in Game 2. Yet, it may not be low enough. If the two best defenses in the league are playing each other, which this essentially becomes without Morant, should there be any expectation of either one cracking 110?
Prediction: Under 218.5 (-108 at WynnBET)
Best bet
To double down on that Under thought, Game 4 finished with 199 combined points, including Dillon Brooks’ meaningless heave to end the game.
As badly as Curry, Thompson, and Poole shot, should it be assumed they will make seven more threes? That is what it would have taken to boost that game Over tonight’s total. While 4-of-24 is horrid, 11-of-24 would be a scorching 45.8%.
If Memphis is going to have any chance in the fourth quarter tonight, it will need to once again junk up the first three frames. Steven Adams notching another double-double may be the Grizzlies’ best hope, a prop not yet posted as of this writing, unfortunately.
That is not a recipe for a win, but it is a recipe for another low-scoring game. That will be fine with Golden State, as long as the series ends tonight and it gets a chance to rest up before the Western Conference Finals.
Pick: Under 218.5 (-108 at WynnBET)
Did you know that if you parlayed today’s NBA Warriors vs. Grizzlies predictions and picks in a single-game parlay, you could win $27.60 on a $10 bet?
Use our NBA parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
