Two teams headed in very different directions meet tonight in a Western Conference showdown between a Golden State Warriors team that’s climbing the standings and a Memphis Grizzlies team that’s tumbling down them.
With Memphis’ recent firing of Taylor Jenkins, the team has lost both its games under interim coach Tuomas Iisalo and could be in for another L against a surging Golden State team. My Warriors vs. Grizzlies predictions and NBA picks for Tuesday, April 1 expect those issues to continue as the team struggles to get back on track.
Warriors vs Grizzlies prediction
My best bet: Warriors -5.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Prior to the inexplicable firing of Jenkins, the Memphis Grizzlies were backsliding. The team was 2-5 over Jenkins’ last seven games as head coach, but moving on and replacing him with Iisalo hasn’t led to a quick fix.
The Grizzlies have dropped both games under their interim coach, and the team is now just 3-19 ATS since February 12. Things don’t appear to be improving in Bluff City, with the Grizzlies failing to cover as an underdog in nine straight games.
They’re catching the Golden State Warriors at a tough time to make matters worse for Memphis. The Warriors have taken their game up a notch as they continue to move up the Western Conference standings to avoid the NBA Play-In Tournament.
The Warriors are in the middle of an 18-4 stretch since February 8 and are 9-6 ATS when favored by nine points or fewer over that span. A big reason they’ve taken their game up a notch has been their offense finding its stride over the last two months.
After averaging fewer than 111 points per game in December and January, the Warriors have averaged 117.3 ppg since the beginning of February. That’s coincided with them getting to the free-throw line far more over the last two months, too — they’ve averaged over 19 made free throws per game during that span.
Memphis’ defense has had trouble this season, and it doesn’t look like it will be the unit that ends the Warriors’ hot streak. The Grizzlies allow the sixth-most ppg in the NBA (117.1) and the fifth-most 3-pointers per game (14.3).
Meanwhile, Golden State’s defense has been equally as impressive as its offense over the last two months. The Warriors are allowing just 108.9 ppg in their last 26 games, and Draymond Green is now the NBA Defensive Player of the Year odds favorite.
The Warriors have enough to keep Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. quiet to hand them a fourth straight loss.
Warriors vs Grizzlies same-game parlay
Warriors -5.5
Brandin Podziemski Over 14.5 points
Ja Morant Under 24.5 points
After a first season that saw him finish Top 5 in the NBA Rookie of the Year race, Brandin Podziemski has come into his own in the second half of his sophomore season. The Santa Clara product averaged 14.5 ppg in March, a monthly high, and is coming off a 27-point performance against the Spurs.
That momentum can carry into tonight’s matchup with the Grizzlies, Memphis is allowing the seventh-most ppg to shooting guards this season (23.19). As for Morant, he could be in for an ugly night.
The two-time All-Star has gone just 28-for-105 (26.7%) from three over the last two months and takes on a Warriors team that’s allowing the second-fewest ppg to point guards (22.81).
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Warriors vs Grizzlies odds
Warriors vs Grizzlies live odds
Warriors vs Grizzlies opening odds
- Spread: Golden State -2.5 | Memphis +2.5
- Moneyline: Golden State -135 | Memphis +115
- Over/Under: Over 237.5 | Under 237.5
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Warriors vs Grizzlies spread and Over/Under analysis
- Golden State opened as just a 2.5-point favorite with the line seeing major movement in their direction as most books now offer the Warriors at -5.5.
- Golden State hasn’t been the most consistent bet ATS this season at 36-35-3, while Memphis is slightly better at 38-36-1.
- The Over/Under opened as low as 236.5 and as high as 239.5 with most books now sitting at 237.5.
- The Warriors are right down the middle when it comes to betting the Over with a 37-37 record, while the Grizzlies are one of the best Over bets in the NBA at 43-32.
Warriors vs Grizzlies trend
The Warriors have covered the fourth-quarter spread in 16 of their last 24 games (+9.15 units / 33% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Grizzlies.
How to watch Warriors vs Grizzlies
| Location | FedExForum, Memphis, TN |
| Date | Tuesday, 4-1-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBCS-Bay Area, FDSN-Memphis |
Warriors vs Grizzlies latest injuries
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