Warriors vs Kings Picks and Predictions: Sacramento Won't Be Overwhelmed by the Moment

Welcome back to the NBA playoffs, Sacramento. Your 17-year nightmare is over.

Golden 1 Center is going to be roaring to welcome the Golden State Warriors on Saturday night, and the NBA even leaned into that anticipation by making this the prime-time game.

Can 17,608 rowdy fans swing the game toward the Kings in what should be a tight matchup? Find out in our free NBA picks and predictions for the Warriors vs Kings on April 15.

Warriors vs Kings best odds

Warriors vs Kings picks and predictions

Let’s bet on those fans and that atmosphere. At least, let’s bet on their early energy.

The Kings do not play a version of basketball that one would look at and think nerves could undo them, even in their first playoff appearance. De’Aaron Fox may take nearly six threes per game — 5.9 since the All-Star break — but that is less than a third of his shot attempts. He is more likely to be darting to the rim, particularly in transition.

Anyone who has watched Domantas Sabonis in his career does not expect him to crumble under the weight of the playoffs. Maybe that comes from growing up in Lithuania; such a thought may not come across as high-level handicapping, but really, try to unnerve a Lithuanian. You have a better chance of making an omelette without breaking any eggs.

And of course, Harrison Barnes has been here and done this before.

Sacramento’s core should not be anxious to start Game 1, and with Golden 1 Center determined to light the beam in the playoffs, the early environment should boost those players. While the veteran Warriors will remain unfazed by any of this, an early surge from the Kings will ignite that building and could lead to an early Sacramento run.

Both the full game and the first quarter are effectively a pick’em. The crowd’s influence could create enough of an edge to create value on such a tight line, particularly early.

Sabonis is four inches taller than Kevon Looney, so thinking he will win the opening tip is not too aggressive. Right there, with the crowd at full tilt, Sacramento should have an extra possession in the small sample of the first quarter.

Again, that should create enough of an edge to create value on such a tight line. Let’s lean into the crowd and let’s light an early beam. 

My best bet: Kings -0.5 (+100 at BetMGM)

Warriors vs Kings spread analysis

Looking across sportsbooks, a deliberate bettor can find either team as a one-point underdog. Golden State struggled a bit in tight games this year, going 6-9-1 against the spread when the line was within a bucket either way, including 0-3 ATS in its last three games.

Meanwhile, Sacramento has been one of the most clutch teams in the league, led by Fox’s relentlessness late in games. The Kings went 11-11 ATS in games with spreads within a bucket either way, but that includes 4-0 ATS in their last four such games.

Doubting Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green to show up in a tight playoff game is a foolish thought, but doubting Fox in those moments this season has been even more laughable. With the crowd at his back, that should be leaned into even more.

For that matter, it needs to be mentioned that the Warriors not only went a paltry 11-30 straight up on the road this season, but they also owned a 12-29 ATS record on the road. No one ever zeroed in on a reason for their struggles this year, but it was an undeniable and clear one.

Warriors vs Kings Over/Under analysis

Not counting the two 1 vs. 8 games, the total of 238.5 is the highest of the weekend’s games and a testament to the frenetic style of the Kings. That said, postseason basketball is a bit different and the Warriors will certainly tighten the defensive reins as the game moves along.

That is where the return of Andrew Wiggins may be difficult for bookmakers to quantify. He has become a two-way player with Golden State and is now reliable in all facets, but his best use is still as a defender. The Warriors' defense was measurably worse without Wiggins this season, posting a team defensive rating of 116.0 in 45 games without him per StatMuse, and a rating of 114.2 in 37 games with him on the floor.

To put that difference into context, 116.0 would have ranked No. 21 in the league this season, while a defensive rating of 114.2 would have tied for No. 14.

Wiggins’ return has likely been undervalued a bit and is enough reason to invest in the Under for Game 1.

Warriors vs Kings betting trend to know

The Under is 6-2-1 in the last nine meetings between these two teams. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Kings.

Warriors vs Kings game info

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