Warriors vs Lakers Picks and Predictions: Poole Racks up Points for Dubs

It’s put up or shut up time for the Los Angeles Lakers, who enter the post-break schedule with a new-look lineup aiming to get inside the playoff picture in the Western Conference.

The first challenge for LeBron James and this revamped roster is the reigning NBA champion Golden State Warriors on Thursday night.

Golden State is hovering amongst the playoff-bound clubs, but is still without injured star Stephen Curry, and could also be missing forward Andrew Wiggins, who is away from the team dealing with a personal issue.

I run down the spread and Over/Under, as well as give my best NBA picks and predictions for Warriors vs. Lakers on Thursday, February 23.

Warriors vs Lakers best odds

Warriors vs Lakers picks and predictions

Not having Curry in the lineup is a big knock to the Warriors’ second-half push, but the Dubs start the home stretch of the season with Andrew Wiggins in limbo as well.

Wiggins wasn’t at practice Tuesday, and according to Golden State beat reporters, there’s a good chance he doesn’t suit up for Thursday’s road stop in La-La Land. Wiggins missed the final outing before the break — a 134-124 shootout loss to the L.A. Clippers. Donte DiVincenzo took his spot in the starting lineup, and shooting guard Jordan Poole played 33 minutes and fired up 20 field goal attempts, finishing the game with 28 points.

Poole was also busy in the past matchup with the Lakers, going 11-for-25 from the floor in 37 minutes of action and scoring 29 points in the Feb. 11 loss. His scoring prop for this return meeting in L.A. is parked as low as 25.5 points, with many books still showing a point prop for Wiggins. Should Wiggins be officially ruled out, Poole’s point total will likely take a bump considering he’ll play a bigger role in the offense.

After a slow start to the month, in which Poole played Under his point total in six straight games going back to January 27, he’s topped his scoring prop in three of his last four while averaging 27.3 points in that span.

The up-and-down pace of that last matchup with the Lakers played into Poole’s strengths. He erupted for 17 points in the fourth quarter on 6-of-11 shooting, and will again be counted on to carry the backcourt with Wiggins missing, Curry sidelined, and fellow guard Gary Payton Jr. out with an abdominal injury.

His floor time has peaked since Curry went down, and his field goal attempts have also spiked, putting up totals of 20, 25, and 25 shots in three of his last five outings. Poole doesn’t shrink in enemy territory either, averaging 21.9 points on 44% shooting on the road, which sit above his output in home games.

As for the Lakers defense, Los Angeles sits 27th in points allowed to opposing guards per game, and those new pieces are still figuring out the defensive rotations on the perimeter. 

As much as chemistry plays a role on offense, it is vital on the defensive end when it comes to switches and weakside help. Poole has the inside-out game to take advantage of those mistakes, and can get up and down the floor in transition.

My best bet: Jordan Poole Over 25.5 points (-113)

Warriors vs Lakers spread analysis

With this being one of the first games back from the break, books opened their NBA odds on this Pacific Division matchup Monday, with the Lakers hitting the board as low as 3.5-point home chalk. That has since marched up to -4.5 at most books, where it’s remained steady the past two days.

LeBron James left Sunday’s All-Star Game at halftime with a finger contusion on his right hand, but did play out the first half after suffering the injury by jamming his hand on the rim. He’s officially listed as a game-time decision as of now, which is nothing new for Lakers fans.

These teams faced each other before the break, with L.A. winning 109-103 in San Francisco on Feb. 11. The Warriors opened as 3-point home favorites, and were bet up to -5.5 with James sitting out with a sore foot.

Los Angeles debuted new additions D’Angelo Russell, Jarred Vanderbilt, Malik Beasley, and Davon Reed in that win, and got their first look at new forward Mo Bamba in the win over New Orleans in the final game before the break. Los Angeles is also still folding forward Rui Hachimura into the playbook after 11 games as a Laker since being acquired at the end of January.

Chemistry could be a concern for L.A. and those new faces, which is something Golden State never has to worry about. Even with Stephen Curry sidelined, the Warriors’ championship core is still intact. But the Dubs limped into the break with three losses in the final four games, and are just 3-5 SU (2-5-1 ATS) in February so far. 

Strangely enough, the Warriors’ offense hasn’t skipped a beat without Curry on the perimeter, ranking No. 1 in offensive rating since he went down on Feb. 4. Golden State is averaging 125 points in the five games without Curry, but hasn’t been able to complement those efforts on defense. The Dubs have given up big scores to recent foes, which has spoiled those outputs. 

The Warriors enter Thursday with a 26-31-1 ATS count on the season, including a league-worst 8-20 ATS mark as visitors. The Lakers are 27-31-1 ATS overall, with a 14-14 ATS record at home. They’re also just 2-9 ATS in divisional games this season.

Warriors vs Lakers Over/Under analysis

The Over/Under total for Thursday’s return to play hit the board as low as 236 points earlier in the week, and has since jumped to as high as 239 points. 

The total for the Feb. 11 matchup between the Lakers and Warriors opened around 237.5 points and climbed to 239 before James was ruled out, and the number shrunk to a closing total as low as 235 points. Los Angeles’ 109-103 victory played well below that number.

Neither team shot especially well from the field, most notably from beyond the arc, where they finished a combined 20-for-69 (29%). Los Angeles and Golden State played at an up-tempo pace (106.0 pace rating) but also burned plenty of possessions, with each side committing 15 turnovers, including six giveaways from Russell and Beasley.

Golden State’s offensive prowess and poor defense has been a boon for Over bettors riding the team’s 35-21-2 Over/Under record on the year, including a 21-6-1 O/U mark as a visitor. As for L.A., the Purple and Gold are 31-28 O/U overall, with a 13-15 O/U count inside Crypto.com Arena.

Warriors vs Lakers betting trend to know

The Over is 15-5-1 in the Warriors’ last 21 games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Lakers.

Warriors vs Lakers game info

Warriors vs Lakers key injuries

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