The Dallas Mavericks will be searching for their second win over the Golden State Warriors in a span of a week on Thursday.
The Warriors continue to struggle with Draymond Green out of the lineup, and the team will desperately miss his defense against Luka Doncic and this Mavericks offense.
Will Golden State get back on track with a win over Dallas? Keep reading our NBA betting picks and predictions for Warriors vs. Mavericks to find out.
Warriors vs Mavericks odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Despite their recent struggles, the Warriors opened as 2.5-point road favorites against a Mavericks team that beat them last week. The line hasn’t moved much since open, but there are some places that have Dallas as a 3-point underdog.
The total, which opened at 218.5, is up to 219 or 219.5 almost everywhere.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Warriors vs Mavericks predictions
- Prediction: Mavericks +3 (-110)
- Prediction: Over 218.5 (-110)
- Best bet: Doncic Over 7.5 assists (-130)
Predictions made on 3/3/2022 at 12:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Warriors vs Mavericks game info
• Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
• Date: Thursday, March 3, 2022
• Tip-off: 8:30 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports Southwest-Dallas, NBC Sports Bay Area
Warriors vs Mavericks betting preview
Key injuries
Warriors: Klay Thompson G (Probable), Moses Moody G (Questionable), Nemanja Bjelica F (Questionable), Andre Iguodala F (Questionable), James Wiseman C (Out), Draymond Green F(Out).
Mavericks: Marquese Criss F (Out), Trey Burke G (Questionable), Frank Ntilikina G (Questionable), Theo Pinson G (Out), Tim Hardaway Jr. G (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Golden State is 1-7-1 against the spread in its last nine games as favorites. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Mavericks.
Warriors vs Mavericks picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
The Warriors are 1-8 ATS when facing teams that allow 108 or fewer points per game in the second half of the season, and they have only won those games by an average of 1.0 point per game.
Meanwhile, the Mavericks are 20-8 ATS when coming off a road game this season, so they should be pretty fired up to get back to Dallas. The Mavericks are also 18-8 ATS when coming off a game in which they failed to cover this season.
Until Green returns to the lineup for the Warriors, it’s hard to see what truly separates Golden State from Dallas. Sure, Steph Curry is one of the best players in the entire world, but so is Doncic. The Mavericks star is a triple-double threat every time he touches the floor, and he lifts the play of his weak supporting cast on a nightly basis.
Dallas’ offense is going to be hard to guard as long as Doncic has the ball in his hands, and what has taken the team to another level is its improved defense. The Mavericks are fifth in the league in defensive rating this season, which makes this team a nightmare to play against.
Thompson’s return to the lineup should give Golden State a small boost, but it’s still hard to see the team taking care of business here. Not only should Dallas cover, but Jason Kidd’s team should win this game outright.
Prediction: Mavericks +3 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
While the Mavericks' defense is a huge part of the reason to believe that Dallas should win this game, this total just looks way too low for a game that will have so much offensive talent on the floor.
There will inevitably be some 3-point flurries from Curry and Thompson is also capable of getting himself going. Meanwhile, Doncic is going to be in attack mode and those reasons alone make this a game in which you won’t want to be rooting for fewer points.
It should also be noted that the Over is 10-2 when Golden State has faced teams that average at least 23 assists per game in the second half of this season. The average total points scored in those contests has been 228.4 points per game, and the Over is 5-1-1 in the Warriors’ last seven games, in general.
Back this game to sneak Over the total again tonight.
Prediction: Over 218.5 (-110)
Best bet
Doncic has recorded only seven total assists over his last two games, which simply isn’t like him. The superstar also had only two dimes against this same Warriors team on February 27.
Despite all of that, he should get back to his playmaking self tonight.
Doncic had 34 points in a win over the Warriors last game, and he was unstoppable as a scorer. With that in mind, Golden State could look to send some help in his direction. That would allow the 23-year-old to use his vision to find good shots for his teammates.
Doncic has also had at least eight assists in eight of his last nine home games. Dallas’ lineup is made up of a lot of role players, and those are the types of guys that are more comfortable shooting at home. You can count on those guys to make some shots, especially with Draymond Green still out for the Warriors.
Pick: Luka Doncic Over 7.5 assists (-130)
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