The Golden State Warriors and the Dallas Mavericks will face off at American Airlines Center tonight, with Stephen Curry going up against Kyrie Irving. Tipoff is scheduled for 9:30 p.m. ET, and the game will air on ESPN.
My best bet for this game was going to be the Over on the number of Dallas Mavericks fans getting kicked out of American Airlines Center for chanting 'Fire Nico Harrison,' but sadly, that prop isn't available anywhere.
What I am backing in my Warriors vs. Mavericks predictions and NBA picks on Wednesday, February 12 is Draymond Green to dish out some dimes.
Warriors vs Mavericks prediction
My best bet
Draymond Green 7+ assists (+140 at bet365)
My analysis
If the Dallas Mavericks were completely healthy, taking the alternate over on Draymond Green's assists prop would look much different than it does on Wednesday night. The Mavericks have some of the best rim protection in the NBA with Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively, and they made it even stronger by adding Anthony Davis alongside those two bigs.
The problem for the Mavericks on Wednesday against the Warriors, however, is that all three — Davis, Gafford, and Lively — are out with injuries. This will most likely force the Mavericks to play small with PJ Washington as their primary center, and he is also questionable with an ankle injury.
The lack of rim protection and reliance on a smaller lineup will be a problem for the Mavericks, but what makes it even worse is that their perimeter defense — featuring Kyrie Irving, Klay Thompson, and Spencer Dinwiddie — isn't the strongest. It was just backed up by the shot-blocking of their bigs.
Against this version of the Mavericks' defense, potential assists should convert at a much higher rate, especially around the rim. That’s why I’m attacking the alternate over for Green. Not only will he have his usual converter of potential assists in Stephen Curry, but he also now has Jimmy Butler.
Butler is someone who will attack the paint, finish around the rim, and convert potential assists for Green. Typically, against the Mavericks, you would be concerned about these shots converting into assists, but this is a much different Mavericks lineup on Wednesday.
Green is projected for 6.8 assists on Wednesday, which allows us to price 7+ assists at -105, but it is available at bet365 at +140. You also have an edge on the Over 5.5 assists, which is trading at -140 if that's the route you prefer, but the higher EV play would be the alternate 7+ assists.
Warriors vs Mavericks same-game parlay
Draymond Green 7+ assists
Stephen Curry 25+ points
Jimmy Butler 20+ points
Editor's Note: Boosted odds subject to change.
I think the breakdown for the best bet also explains why the SGP is built the way it is. Green is someone who can quickly post a triple-double if the matchup is right, and on Wednesday, I think the matchup is definitely there for him.
He can drag Washington out to the perimeter and facilitate the offense with nobody protecting the rim for the Mavericks. Another key factor with Green is that the Golden State Warriors moved on from Dennis Schroder at the trade deadline. Schroder was someone who created offense, so without him in the lineup, the ball will be in Green’s hands even more.
If Green is hitting the alternate Over on his assists prop, that means Curry is knocking down shots since the majority of Green’s assists go to Curry. Butler 20+ points also makes the parlay because, as I highlighted in the best bet, I think he’s the wild card who can push this total Over with his ability to finish around the rim.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Warriors vs Mavericks odds
Warriors vs Mavericks live odds
Warriors vs Mavericks opening odds
- Spread: Golden State -4 | Dallas +4
- Moneyline: Golden State -165 | Dallas +140
- Over/Under: Over 234 | Under 234
Odds courtesy of bet365
Warriors vs Mavericks spread and Over/Under analysis
- We've seen a lot of steam for the Warriors, who have moved from -4 to -6.5.
- The one injury to watch is Washington, who is currently listed as questionable.
- The total has dropped one point since the opener, down to 233.
- The market is fading the Mavericks, who are reeling as an organization.
- Covers Consensus data shows 65% of spread picks taking Golden State, and 61% backing the Over.
Warriors vs Mavericks trend
Golden State has hit the moneyline in 26 of its last 44 road games. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Mavericks.
How to watch Warriors vs Mavericks
| Location | American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX |
| Date | Wednesday, 2-12-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Warriors vs Mavericks latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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