The worst team in the NBA, the Washington Wizards, hits the road to take on an Orlando Magic squad that’s fighting to secure a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference by leaning on its hard-nosed defense in a game that won’t contain much offense.
Given Washington’s poor play and Orlando’s stingy defense-first mentality, points should be hard to come by, as I explain in my Wizards vs. Magic predictions and NBA picks for Sunday, February 23.
Wizards vs Magic prediction
My best bet
Under 216.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Since Jamahl Mosley took over as bench boss four seasons ago, he hasn’t just helped turn the Orlando Magic into a playoff team, but he’s also deployed a defense that’s suffocated opponents. Thanks to this playing style, Orlando has been the third-best Under team in the NBA during his tenure.
In the four years that Mosley’s been head coach, the team is 164-143-3 betting the Under. This season has been their best hitting it, too, with the Magic sitting at 36-22 betting the Under, giving them the best Under rate in the NBA (62.1%).
Injuries have impacted the team this season, but the defense remains elite. Orlando is second in the NBA in defensive rating (109.1) and allowing the second-fewest PPG in the league (105.5). That’s helped them go 8-2 betting the Under in their last 10, and that hot streak should continue against this Washington Wizards offense.
Washington is just 27th in PPG this season (108.4) and ranks dead-last in offensive rating (106.5) behind an attack that’s second-last in field goal percentage (43.9%) and 3-point percentage (33.4%). Its also expected to be without several players, including Malcolm Brogdon and the newly-acquired duo of Marcus Smart and Khris Middleton.
That means head coach Brian Keefe will need to continue relying heavily on rookies Alex Sarr and Carlton Carrington to generate offense alongside the irrationally confident Jordan Poole. It’s a big ask for Sarr and Carrington to make noise against Orlando’s defense, even with it down Jalen Suggs.
While Washington’s defense is equally as bad as its offense, the Under remains in good shape because of the Magic’s struggles to put up points. Orlando is last in the league in PPG (104.2) and second-last in offensive rating (107.8).
Even with an All-Star like Paolo Banchero, the Magic are one of the worst shooting teams in the NBA, ranking third-last in field goal percentage (43.9%) and last in 3-point percentage (30.5%). It also helps this Under that the Magic play slow, ranking second last in pace rating (96.3).
These two teams combined to score 212.6 PPG, so this Under is more appealing than taking Orlando -13.
Wizards vs Magic same-game parlay
Under 216.5
Carlton Carrington Under 16.5 points + assists
Paolo Banchero Over 7.5 rebounds
While Carrington has been among the more exciting rookies this season, the 14th overall pick out of Pittsburgh is in for a tough evening. Bub is expected to start at shooting guard with all the injuries for Washington, and Orlando has shut down shooting guards this year.
The Magic give up the fewest PPG (20.51) and APG (4.08) to shooting guards in the NBA, and Carrington has gone Under 16.5 combined in nine of his last 12 games. Meanwhile, Banchero should have a strong night pulling in boards.
The former Duke star is averaging 7.2 RPG this season and the Wizards are allowing the most-rebounds per game in the NBA (47.9). That includes allowing the most in the league to power forwards (12.01).
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Wizards vs Magic odds
Wizards vs Magic live odds
Wizards vs Magic opening odds
- Spread: Washington +12 | Orlando -12
- Moneyline: Washington +550 | Orlando -800
- Over/Under: Over 218.5 | Under 218.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Wizards vs Magic spread and Over/Under analysis
- Orlando opened as an 11.5 to 12-point home favorite with the line continuing to shift in its direction and most books offering the Magic -12.5 to -13.
- Orlando is 27-30-1 ATS but has covered in three straight, while Washington is just 24-29-2.
- The Over/Under opened as high as 218.5 but has been slowing dropping and is now as sitting at 216.5 at most books.
- The Magic are the worst Over team in the NBA this season at just 22-36, and the Wizards are 29-26.
Wizards vs Magic trend
The Magic have hit the Under in 57 of their last 91 games (+19.60 Units / 20% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Wizards vs. Magic.
How to watch Wizards vs Magic
| Location | Kia Center, Orlando, FL |
| Date | Sunday, 2-23-2025 |
| Tip-off | 6:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | MNMT, FDSN |
Wizards vs Magic latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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