The battle for 10th place and the final play-in spot in the Eastern Conference takes center stage on Thursday night as the Washington Wizards take on the Toronto Raptors.
The surging Wizards are No. 10 in the standings but are just three games ahead of the Raptors with six contests left to play. Oddsmakers are expecting a close game with NBA betting lines opening with the Raptors installed as 1.5-point home favorites.
Here are our best free Wizards vs. Raptors picks and predictions for Thursday, May 6, with tipoff at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Wizards vs Raptors odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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NBA Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonThe Raptors opened -1.5 overnight at PointsBet USA and stretched to -3 midmorning, then at noon ET dipped a tick to -2.5, where the line remains at 4:30 p.m. ET. That said, ticket count is 2/1 and money 3/1 on the underdog Wizards. The total is out to 237.5 from a 233.5 opener, with ticket count almost dead even, but money running 3/1 on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameWizards at Raptors betting preview
Injuries
Wizards: Rui Hachimura PF (Out), Deni Avdeja SF (Out), Thomas Bryant C (Out).
Raptors: Kyle Lowry PG (Probable), Gary Trent Jr. (Probable), OG Anunoby F (Out), Chris Boucher PF (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Raptors are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. Find more NBA betting trends for Wizards vs. Raptors.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
The Raptors have won both games in the head-to-head against the Wizards this season, crushing them by 22 points in February and edging them 103-101 last month. But Washington has been on an absolute heater since, going 11-3 SU and 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games.
Although the Wizards have three losses in their last six contests, one of those defeats came in overtime while the other two came by a single point on the road, including last night's 135-134 loss to the Milwaukee Bucks. That said, the Raptors have been also been playing well lately, going 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games.
Toronto has lost four of its last five games but those defeats came against some of the best teams in the league on a grueling West Coast road trip and the win came against Lebron James and the defending champion Lakers. And while the Wizards guard duo of Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal might be the best in the league, they have plenty of problems in their frontcourt.
Although the Wizards have a slightly better overall record, the Raps have been the more efficient team on both ends of the floor. Toronto is 14th in the NBA in offensive rating and 15th in defensive rating while Washington is 19th on offense and 21st on defense.
Despite playing in Tampa Bay this season, the Raps are still playing better at "home," boasting an average scoring margin of plus-3 points per game at Amalie Arena. The Wizards, meanwhile, have an average scoring margin of minus-4 ppg on the road. With the Wizards playing on the tail end of a back-to-back after a close battle last night, go with the home side.
PREDICTION: Toronto -3 (-110)
Over/Under pick
The Wizards play at the fastest pace in the league and have been in some insane shootouts lately, combining for 269 points with the Bucks yesterday and totaling an incredible 295 points on Monday night against the Pacers.
But there's reason to go against the line movement and consider the Under with the total at 235.5 tonight.
Keep in mind that even with those last two high-scoring contests, eight of the Wizards' last 13 games have seen fewer than 235 points.
The Raptors haven't had a game with more than 235 points over their last 13 contests, and are allowing just 108.5 points per game over that span. With the Over/Under for this game set at an extremely high number, back the Under.
PREDICTION: Under 235.5 (-110)
Team Total Prop
As Raptors guard Fred VanVleet eloquently put it the other day, "we're the best worst team of all time."
The analytics certainly back up that statement, with the Raptors ranking eighth in the league in shooting defense by holding opponents to a field goal percentage of 45.9.
They've been even stingier at home, where they are third in the NBA with an opponent FG percentage of 44.9 while limiting foes to 108.3 ppg.
Though the Wizards are fourth in the league with 116 ppg, that number drops to 112.8 ppg on the road. Take the Under on their team total
PREDICTION: Team Total Washington Under 116.5 (-110)
Wizards vs Raptors betting card
- Toronto -3 (-110)
- Under 235.5 (-110)
- Team Total Washington Under 116.5 (-110)
Picks made on 5/06/2021 at 11:10 a.m. ET
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