The Alabama Crimson Tide will travel to Florida for a big SEC rivalry matchup against the Gators on Wednesday night.
The Crimson Tide are coming off a 73-68 home victory over Tennessee on Dec. 29. Meanwhile, Florida hasn’t played since December 22 and hasn’t faced a Power 5 team since December 12.
But having a full house against Alabama should help Florida in tonight’s game. After all, Florida already has wins against Ohio State and Florida State from earlier this year. The Gators are plenty capable.
With Alabama playing just its second road game of the season, will the Crimson Tide be prepared against the Gators? Here are our free betting picks and predictions for the SEC matchup between the Alabama Crimson Tide and Florida Gators.
Alabama vs Florida odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
The Gators opened as 1-point favorites and have jumped to a -2 since. However, some books are starting to trend back down to -1.5 at this time.
The total for this game opened at 149 and has seen some line movement to 149.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Alabama vs Florida predictions
Predictions made on 1/5/2022 at 9:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Alabama vs Florida game info
• Location: Exactech Arena at Stephen C. O'Connell Center, Gainesville, FL
• Date: Wednesday, January 5, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN2
Alabama at Florida betting preview
Injuries
Alabama: Darius Miles F (Questionable), James Rojas F (Out), Nimari Burnett G (Out).
Florida: Myreon Jones G (Questionable).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Gators are 7-2 against the spread in their last nine home games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Alabama vs. Florida.
Alabama vs Florida picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
Alabama has only played one true road game all season long and no atmosphere will be as wild as Florida’s. When Florida and Alabama play one another, the arena gets packed. It’s a rivalry and an exciting one at that.
The Crimson Tide have struggled shooting the ball recently and that's going to cause problems against Florida. The Gators have held opponents to 28.7% from 3-point range while also forcing 25.1% turnovers on the season. Florida isn’t going to dominate the defensive glass, but they’ll find ways on the offensive end. And so will Alabama.
The best way for the Crimson Tide to win tonight’s game is to score inside. Alabama is shooting 59% from inside while only hitting 32.8% from outside.
But Alabama has been stubborn. The Crimson Tide continues to launch threes at an extremely high rate and they just aren’t going in the basket right now. Alabama struggled against a really good defense from Tennessee, and Florida’s defense is pretty similar when it comes to defending the perimeter and forcing turnovers.
On the other hand, Florida should be able to grab offensive rebounds and find its way to the line more in this game. The Gators are shooting just 31.2% from downtown but have watched that percentage increase after the last couple of games.
The Gators should also have success inside, knowing Alabama is allowing teams to shoot 50.5% from inside the arc on the season.
Florida will never have a player with two fouls play in a game, but Alabama is much riskier in these scenarios. That favors the Gators if they're able to get out of the first half with the lead.
Florida is experienced and has more depth, which could prove to be crucial.
Prediction: Florida -1.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
The Crimson Tide have alternated losses and wins over their last four games. They fell 92-78 to Memphis before rebounding to beat Jacksonville State. Then, they narrowly lost 79-78 to Davidson before overcoming Tennessee on Dec. 29 all while shooting pretty poorly on the whole.
Alabama is capable of beating and scoring against anyone. We saw it against Houston and Gonzaga already this year. But the Crimson Tide are also capable of shooting themselves out of a game.
And that’s how it's going to go against a tough Florida team.
Prediction: Under 149.5 (-110)
Best bet
I like how Florida matches up with Alabama. Tonight, the Gators could be at full strength (outside of Keyontae Johnson). If that’s the case, I like Florida to earn more turnovers, win plenty of second chances, and hold Alabama in the half-court.
Florida will either force quick shots from the Crimson Tide or they’ll be able to make Alabama work on the offensive end for 20 or 30 seconds per possession.
Pick: Florida -1.5 (-110)
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