Gonzaga vs Alabama Odds, Picks and Predictions: Elite Programs Rain Buckets

It’s a busy day of college hoops on Saturday, but few will be appointment television quite like this one at Legacy Arena in Birmingham as No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide (9-1) take on the No. 15 Gonzaga Bulldogs (8-3).

A preseason favorite to cut down the nets, it’s been far from a picture-perfect start for Gonzaga, as the Bulldogs have already dropped three games.

Will Mark Few’s squad grab a statement win in order to get back on track?

Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for Alabama vs. Gonzaga on Saturday, December 17 to find out. 

Gonzaga vs Alabama best odds

Gonzaga vs Alabama picks and predictions

The Gonzaga Bulldogs have stumbled out of the gates relative to expectations, dropping three games straight up while posting an abysmal 2-8-1 ATS record. With a mark like that against the spread, there’s a case to be made that they’ve been one of the most overvalued teams in the nation. 

Does that mean Gonzaga is cooked? Absolutely not. The Bulldogs check in at 12th overall in KenPom while ranking fifth in adjusted offensive efficiency, so this is clearly still a very potent squad. Drew Timme leads the way with 20.5 points and 7.9 rebounds per game while Julian Strawther (13.2 points, 8.3 rebounds) has emerged as the second option.

This team is still looking for tertiary options to emerge on a consistent basis and no one else other than those two are performing at an elite level. Rasir Bolton (10.7 points) is the only other Bulldog averaging double figures. Defense has also been an issue, as they rank 41st in adjusted defensive efficiency. 

Alabama has been the inverse of Gonzaga, as the Crimson Tide have vastly outperformed expectations en route to the No. 4 ranking in the AP Poll. A well-respected coach, Nate Oats, may be primed to take the next step. Freshman phenom Brandon Miller leads the way with 18.5 points and 8.4 rebounds per game. The Crimson Tide are solid on both ends of the floor, ranking 17th in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency and 14th in defensive efficiency. 

Rather than taking a side with Saturday’s best bet, I’ll instead target the total. The Over/Under is currently set at 159, which I believe is far too low. Both teams play at a very fast tempo, with the Tide ranking 17th in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric and the Bulldogs checking in at 89th.

Gonzaga still has an elite offense that can bring the fireworks, while Alabama has been getting buckets all season. Gonzaga is averaging 80.6 points per game while Alabama is averaging 83, and those numbers are not flukes. I’d take this number a few points higher, as it’s probably only headed in one direction. 

My best bet: Over 159 (-110 at DraftKings)

Gonzaga vs Alabama spread analysis

Alabama currently sits between -1 and -1.5 depending on the location.

It’s no secret what the Tide are looking to do — shoot the hell out of the ball from behind the arc. Alabama ranks seventh in 3-point attempts (29.8) and 14th in 3-point makes (10.4) per game, shamelessly hucking from deep with reckless abandon. In this day and age where teams have figured out the mathematics behind the sport, the Crimson Tide play at a fast tempo and hoist up shots that are worth more points than anywhere else on the court, and it usually works. 

This isn’t great news for a Gonzaga team that has failed to defend the 3-point line, ranking 284th in attempts allowed (24.1) and 233rd in makes allowed (7.5) per game. 

That being said, the Zags have played a very difficult schedule thus far, so their numbers have to be taken with a grain of salt. Despite only playing in 11 total games, they’ve already faced four teams currently ranked within KenPom’s top 15 — Purdue, Kentucky, Texas, and Baylor. Alabama will be the fifth.

I lean toward Gonzaga at home. Both teams have faced a difficult schedule, but Gonzaga’s has been especially brutal and that makes me think it could be a bit underrated, especially considering the eventual correction due after a 2-8-1 ATS start to the season. 

Gonzaga vs Alabama Over/Under analysis

This line opened at 158 at most spots, but quickly moved a point and a half at most locations. There are still a few 159s available at the time of this writing. 

Alabama has been an Over fiend in neutral-site games, going 8-1 in its last nine such contests. The Tide have also tended to get into high-scoring affairs against tough competition, going 19-7 to the Over in their last 26 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Gonzaga is certainly a tough opponent and is much more offensively inclined than they are defensively. 

This is a high total, but it’s that way for a reason. These teams are combining to score over 163 points per game, yet the Over/Under opened five points below that number. The Crimson Tide should be able to generate looks from behind the arc against a Bulldogs defense that struggled to defend the 3-point line. The Zags are one of the best offenses in the nation and therefore a solid effort from them should never be a surprise. Both teams play with incredible pace and that should be evident on the court.

Gonzaga vs Alabama betting trend to know

Alabama is 8-1 to the Over in its last nine neutral site games. Find more College basketball betting trends for Alabama vs. Gonzaga.

Gonzaga vs Alabama game info

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