The championship game of the 2023 SEC Tournament in Nashville, TN will see the No. 2-seeded Texas A&M Aggies face off with the top-seeded Alabama Crimson Tide at Bridgestone Arena on Saturday afternoon.
Texas A&M looked like one of the top teams in the country in dismantling Vanderbilt 87-75. The Aggies have now won 19 of their last 22 games.
Alabama didn’t shoot well, but still had plenty of talent to take down Missouri 72-61. The Crimson Tide just lost at Texas A&M in the final game of the regular season.
Will the Aggies continue their hot streak or will Bama get its revenge? Read our college basketball betting picks below to find out.
Alabama vs Texas A&M best odds
Alabama vs Texas A&M picks and predictions
The NCAA Selection Committee has alluded to the fact that this SEC title game won't impact seeding unless it involves a bubble team or automatic bid stealer.
It really shouldn't matter to these teams though since the Alabama Crimson Tide are guaranteed a No. 1 seed and the Texas A&M Aggies are likely a No. 3 seed regardless. This game is all about keeping momentum and winning a conference title.
Texas A&M just continues to prove critics wrong after its dreadful non-conference play at the beginning of the season. The Aggies' only three losses in their final 22 games came on the road to tournament teams. They also beat Auburn, Missouri, Tennessee, Alabama, and Arkansas twice during that stretch.
The Aggies typically beat teams with their defense, but they did it with their offense in the semifinal win over Vanderbilt. They shot 59.6% from the field and 10/19 from downtown. In their regular season win over Alabama, A&M only shot 34% from the field, but they shot 27/28 from the charity striple.
On the defensive end, as good as the Aggies are, they allow a ton of 3-pointers. They rank 337th in the country allowing 25 threes per game. They allowed 36 of those in that Bama game, but the Crimson Tide only made seven. The Aggies allowed 22 to Vanderbilt and 20 to Arkansas in the SEC Tournament thus far.
Alabama will undoubtedly let it fly, even if they're not going in. The Crimson Tide attempted 27 threes against Missouri, despite shooting 29.6% and 37 threes against Mississippi State. Because of its style of play, Alabama is guaranteed to score nearly 70 points even on a poor shooting night.
In the regular season, these two teams only combined for 128 points. However, that was a dreadful shooting performance for both teams and they're playing much better here in Nashville. This will be an exciting game and one to take the Over on.
My best bet: Over 145 (-110 at BetRivers)
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Alabama vs Texas A&M spread analysis
This game is going to provide a ton of fireworks and should be a back-and-forth affair. In that scenario, I like to pick the team with the best player on the floor and there's no doubt that team is Alabama. Brandon Miller is expected to be a Top-5 draft pick in the upcoming NBA Draft.
Miller averaged 19.6 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 1.8 assists in the regular season. In the SEC Tournament, he's averaging 19.0 points, 10.5 rebounds, and 4.5 assists per game. He was one of the few bright spots for Alabama in their regular season loss to the Aggies with 19 points, 10 boards, and two assists.
The trends will tell you to lean toward the Aggies though if you prefer following trends. The Aggies are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games against winning teams and 24-8 ATS in their last 32 games following an ATS win.
The Crimson Tide are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a straight-up win. The underdog is also 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings between these two programs.
I won't be surprised by any result between these two hot and talented programs. That makes this spread extremely difficult to touch since it's not large enough for me to just take the underdog. I slightly lean towards Alabama thanks to Miller’s superstar talent.
Alabama vs Texas A&M Over/Under analysis
Alabama ranks 21st in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency and Texas A&M ranks 26th. The Crimson Tide also rank fourth in adjusted tempo and second in possessions per game. Alabama allows their opponents to shoot 21.4 free throws per game, which ranks 328th nationally.
The Over is 5-2 in the Aggies' last seven neutral site games. The Over is 9-3 in the Crimson Tide's last 12 neutral site games and 9-0 in their last nine Sunday games, which are rare in the SEC. The trends also tend to lean towards the Over.
The combination of Alabama allowing a ton of free throws and Texas A&M allowing a ton of threes should lead to plenty of scoring chances.
Add in the fact that Alabama plays as quickly as anyone in the nation and you have the recipe for a barn burner. Give me the Over here.
Alabama vs Texas A&M betting trend to know
The Aggies are 38-18 ATS in their last 56 games overall. Find more college basketball betting trends for Alabama vs. Texas A&M.
Alabama vs Texas A&M game info
| Conference: | SEC Championship |
| Location: | Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN |
| Date: | Sunday, March 12, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
