Appalachian St. vs Duke Picks and Predictions: Blue Devils Won't Blowout

The Duke Blue Devils will welcome an experienced Appalachian State Mountaineers team to Cameron Indoor Stadium. Duke lost their undefeated season with a loss to Ohio State back on November 30. Since that game, the Blue Devils have played just once after a two-week layoff.

On the other hand, Appalachian State is 6-5 on the year and is looking to get back to the NCAA Tournament after last year’s appearance. 

After a wild 103-62 win over South Carolina State, will Appalachian State have enough in the tank to cover the hefty spread? Here are our college basketball picks and predictions for Appalachian State vs Duke on December 16. 

Appalachian St. vs Duke odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

The Blue Devils opened up as  21-point favorites and have recently seen movement up to -22 at some outlets. Meanwhile, the total opened at 138 and has also drifted up to as high as 140.5 at select books. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Appalachian St. vs Duke predictions

• Prediction: Appalachian State +22 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 140.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Appalachian State +22 (-110)

Predictions made on 12/16/2021 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Appalachian St. vs Duke game info

• Location: Cameron Indoor Stadium, Durham, NC
• Date: Thursday, December 16, 2021
• Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN2

Appalachian St. at Duke betting preview

Injuries

Appalachian St.: None.
Duke: Theo John F (Questionable).

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Mountaineers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games overall. Find more NCAA betting trends for Appalachian St. vs. Duke.

Appalachian St. vs Duke picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

The Duke Blue Devils are currently one of the best teams in the nation. There’s no denying that. However, Appalachian State isn’t going to be an easy test. 

The Mountaineers have limited turnovers to 15.7% on the season, and while Appalachian State doesn’t shoot all that well, more volume with low turnovers can only help the Mountaineers score more points. 

On the defensive end, Appalachian State is dominating the defensive glass, holding teams to 21 percent offensive rebounds. That’s good for 13th in the nation. It will be more difficult holding Duke off the glass, but if Theo John is unable to play, that will also help Appalachian State’s case on the boards in this game. 

The Mountaineers are also holding opponents to 29.7% from long range, however, teams have shot 59% inside the arc. Duke will really need to dominate inside against Appalachian State. 

The Blue Devils have done just that this year, shooting 55.3% inside and 35.7% from long range. Just like Appalachian State, Duke keep turnovers limited at 12.8%. 

On the defensive end, Duke limits foul shots and holds opponents to 31.3% from long range and 45.8% from inside. Duke is used to playing some really fast teams, but Appalachian State loves to slow things down on the defensive end. 

I’m going to expect that Appalachian State slows things down and plays a halfcourt offense that lasts about 20 or 25 seconds per possession. With limited possessions and an offense that rarely turns the ball over, I like Appalachian State to at least cover this game. 

Prediction: Appalachian State +22 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

Again, Appalachian State wants to limit possessions in this game. They don’t want to be running around with Duke for 40 minutes. They tried doing that against Furman and failed, losing the game 73-65. 

Expect a lot of half-court sets in this game from the Mountaineers. With neither team committing turnovers, and both teams performing well on the defensive glass, I like the Under 140.5.

Prediction: Under 140.5 (-110)

Best bet

Sometimes Duke will wear down opponents. Teams get fatigued and start turning the ball over late in the second half, giving teams like Duke a large number of transition buckets late in the second half to help the Blue Devils cover spreads. 

I don’t think that happens against Appalachian State. It’s an experienced group that rarely turns the ball over. If the Mountaineers play a lot of half-court sets, fatigue shouldn’t be that big of an issue. 

So, give me Appalachian State +22 as the best bet. 

Pick: Appalachian State +22 (-110)

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