Arizona (16-2) finds itself ranked No. 3 in the nation and hoping for postseason glory after a blistering start to the season. The mood was dampened by Tuesday’s disappointing 75-59 loss to UCLA in the Wildcats’ first true test in Pac-12 play.
They’ll hope to bounce back against in-state rival Arizona State (6-11). Will Arizona regain its momentum in blowout fashion, or will Arizona State be able to keep things close?
Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for the Arizona State Sun Devils and the Arizona Wildcats on Saturday, January 29, to find out.
Arizona State vs Arizona odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Arizona opened as a -21 favorite, and the line has moved slightly to -21.5 as of the time of this writing. The total has jumped from 144.5 to 145.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Arizona State vs Arizona predictions
Predictions made on 1/29/2022 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Arizona State vs Arizona game info
• Location: McKale Center, Tucson, AZ
• Date: Saturday, January 29, 2022
• Tip-off: 2:30 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
Arizona State at Arizona betting preview
Injuries
Arizona State: Kimani Lawrence F (Questionable), Alonzo Gaffney F (Doubtful), Marcus Bagley F (Out), Jay Heath G (Out), Justin Rochelin G (Out), Jordan Williams G (Out).
Arizona: Azuolas Tubelis F (Questionable), Kim Aiken Jr. F (Out).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings between these two schools. Find more NCAA betting trends for Arizona State vs. Arizona.
Arizona State vs Arizona picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
Arizona is winning games by an average of 22 points this season, so to cover the spread, the Wildcats must play to their average game. This should be a prime bounce-back spot and just what the doctor ordered after a tough loss to UCLA. Arizona rebounded the ball well and the defense held up alright, but couldn’t get any shots to fall, finishing just 31% from the field.
Arizona State offers a much easier test on the defensive end. The Sun Devils allow 68.8 points per game and struggle to defend the arc, ranking 265th in three-point field goal defense. KenPom actually likes this Sun Devils defense more than the eye test would suggest, ranking them 74th in defensive efficiency. Still, they’re going to struggle to defend a Wildcats team that ranks third nationally in scoring average at 87.1 points per game.
The Wildcats should enjoy the confines of their home court, where they are 10-0 straight up and 6-3-1 ATS.
The biggest advantage for Arizona is on the boards. Arizona ranks first nationally in rebounding, grabbing 40.6 boards per game. Benedict Mathurin (6.3 rebounds) and seven-footers Azuoloas Tubelis (6.1), Christian Koloko (7.2), and Oumar Ballo (4.3) should feast on the glass against an Arizona State team that severely lacks size. The Sun Devils are majorly deficient in grabbing rebounds, ranking 354th in rebounds per game. This should be a bloodbath on the boards.
Arizona State does nothing well offensively. The Sun Devils are shooting just 39.3% from the field on the season, and the results have been even worse in conference play. Arizona is a beast defensively, ranking third nationally in field-goal percentage allowed at 37%. The Sun Devils won’t score, and Arizona will score — a lot. This one seems primed for a blowout as the Wildcats get back on track.
Prediction: Arizona -21.5 (-105)
Over/Under analysis
It takes two teams to hit an Over. We can expect Arizona to crack the 80-point mark and possibly even the 90-point mark thanks to their incredible pace (second in adjusted tempo) and size advantage on the glass. That being said, the Wildcats are incredible defensively and should suffocate this miserable Arizona State offense.
The Sun Devils can’t shoot and will struggle to deal with Arizona’s size in this matchup. Arizona is likely to get out to a large early lead and coast to the finish line, with Arizona State far behind in the rearview mirror. We don’t think the most likely game script is favorable to an Over.
Arizona has gone Under the total in four of its last five games, with three of those cashing by double-digits. Betting markets have caught on to the fact that the Wildcats are scoring at an incredibly rapid pace, but they seem to have yet to realize how stifling the defense is. We’re going with the Under.
Prediction: Under 145.5 (-110)
Best bet
This is a bad scheduling spot for Arizona, with this in-state rivalry game sandwiched in between two meetings with UCLA.
That being said, we care more about the quality of the teams on the court in this spot than we do the external factors. The Wildcats are far and away the better team in every aspect of the game, especially on the boards, where they will go wild.
We expect the Wildcats to tighten the screws in a bounce-back spot to be primed and ready for UCLA at home on Thursday. Wildcats by margin.
Pick: Arizona -21.5 (-105)
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