Arizona State vs Stanford Pac-12 Tournament Picks and Predictions: Devil's in the Defense

The Pac-12 tournament tips off Wednesday afternoon in Las Vegas between the No. 8 Arizona State Sun Devils and the No. 9 Stanford Cardinal.

Bobby Hurley’s Sun Devils have been scorching hot, closing the season on a 7-1 run. Stanford, meanwhile, has been mired in a miserable slump. The Cardinal are 1-7 over their last eight games, an inverse of the Sun Devils.

Will the Sun Devils stay hot, or will the Cardinal offer the first upset of the Pac-12 Tournament?

Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for the Stanford Cardinal and Arizona State Sun Devils on Wednesday, March 9 to find out.

Arizona State vs Stanford odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Arizona State opened as the -2.5 favorites, but the line quickly moved to -3.5 as of Tuesday night. The total opened 127.5 and moved a half-point across most books to 128 at current. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Arizona State vs Stanford predictions

• Prediction: Arizona State -3.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 128 (-105)
• Best bet: Arizona State -3.5 (-110)

Predictions made on 3/8/2022 at 8:45 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Arizona State vs Stanford game info

• Location: T-Mobile Arena, Paradise, NV
• Date: Wednesday, March 9, 2022
• Tip-off: 3:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Pac-12 Network

Arizona State at Stanford betting preview

Injuries

Arizona State: Marcus Bagley F (Out).
Stanford: Noah Taitz G (Out).

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Sun Devils are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight-up win. Find more NCAA betting trends for Arizona State vs. Stanford.

Arizona State vs Stanford picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

There’s no way around it: Arizona State has found its groove. The overall record doesn’t look pretty at 14-16, but some context is in order. Bobby Hurley’s club has won seven of its last eight games, with the only loss coming to the No. 2-seeded UCLA Bruins. Among the wins in that span is a double-digit win in Boulder over a red-hot Colorado team that is also 7-1 over its last eight. Not only have they been winning, but they’ve also been covering — the Sun Devils are 7-1 ATS over their last eight games.

Despite the ups and downs, they’ve been able to rely on a stingy defense for most of the year as this team’s stabilizing force. Opponents manage only 67.1 points per game on the season and convert just 39.9% of their attempts from the field. The Sun Devils rank 21st in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency — by far the highest-ranking unit on either side of the ball in this matchup. This ferocious defense has held each of its last eight opponents below the 70-point barrier. 

There aren’t many positives to point to on the Stanford side of things. The Cardinal are 1-4 ATS in their last five games while scoring over 60 points only once in that stretch. They possess a 3-9 record in away games, so performance away from home is a concern.

Arizona State has the advantage analytically, checking in at 97th in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency — ahead of 109th-ranked Stanford. These teams split the two regular-season meetings, but the Sun Devils won the most recent matchup this past Saturday, 65-56, while covering the spread. 

The Sun Devils are arguably the hottest team in the Pac-12, and they’ll look to continue rolling against a slumping Cardinal team whom they just disposed of mere days ago. The low-scoring nature of both teams and a depressing total of 128 means that this could be a close matchup, but it's one in which we heavily favor the Sun Devils against the spread.

Prediction: Arizona State -3.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

As alluded to previously, the Sun Devils play lockdown defense. They should be able to hold down a Cardinal offense averaging only 54.6 points per game in their last five outings. The Cardinal possess the lowest-scoring offense in the Pac-12, averaging just 65.8 points per game. They’re well below average shooting both from the field and from the 3-point line. They’re truly awful from the stripe, converting just 65.4% — good for 343rd nationally.

For all the positives we’ve mentioned about Arizona State defensively, the offense isn’t quite up to par. The Sun Devils average just 65.2 ppg while ranking outside the Top 300 in field goal percentage, 3-point percentage, and free throw percentage. 

These teams played a few days ago and combined for only 121 points. Both teams have played Under the total all year, with Stanford going just 13-17 to the Over and Arizona State at 9-21 to the Over.

Prediction: Under 128 (-105)

Best bet

While we like both the side and the total, we’ll be rocking with Arizona State as our best bet. 

The Sun Devils are arguably the hottest team in the conference and there’s no reason that they can’t beat Stanford in this first-round matchup. The Cardinal were in full-on freefall mode to end the season, and it’d be more of an upset than the seedings indicate if they were to dispatch of the Sun Devils in Round 1. 

Pick: Arizona State -3.5 (-110)

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