Arizona State vs UCLA Picks and Predictions: Sun Devils Won't Get Blown Out by Bruins

The No. 13-ranked UCLA Bruins (19-5) look for revenge as they host the Arizona State Sun Devils (10-15) tonight.

This will be the second meeting this season between these teams after the Sun Devils pulled off a shocking 87-84 overtime win on Feb. 5.

Oddsmakers believe UCLA should win by approximately two touchdowns or more. That being said, Arizona State has won three straight and is playing its best basketball of the season.

Check out our college basketball betting picks and predictions for the Arizona State Sun Devils and UCLA Bruins on Monday, February 21.

Arizona State vs UCLA odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

UCLA is the heavy home favorite. The Bruins were -15.5 at open, but the line has dropped to -14 at the time of this writing. The total has remained steady since the opener at 133.5.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Arizona State vs UCLA predictions

• Prediction: Arizona State +14 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 133.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Arizona State +14 (-110)

Predictions made on 2/21/2022 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Arizona State vs UCLA game info

• Location: Pauley Pavilion, Los Angeles, CA
• Date: Monday, February 21, 2022
• Tip-off: 9:00 p.m. ET
• TV: FS1

Arizona State at UCLA betting preview

Injuries

Arizona State: Marcus Bagley F (Out), Justin Rochelin G (Out), Jordan Williams G (Out).
UCLA: Johnny Juzang G (Questionable), Tyger Campbell G (Questionable), Cody Riley F (Questionable), Mac Etienne F (Out).

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Arizona State is 6-2 against the spread in its last eight games overall. Find more NCAA betting trends for Arizona State vs. UCLA.

Arizona State vs UCLA picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

UCLA is struggling with the injury bug. Big man Cody Riley and leading-scorer Johnny Juzang both missed Saturday’s 76-50 win over Washington. They were two significant absences that didn’t loom too large against the 132nd team in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency rankings. Point guard Tyger Campbell left that game after 15 seconds due to a “stinger,” but eventually returned to the court.

According to coach Mick Cronin, Riley was out due to rest. Juzang injured his hip after falling off a scooter. Both are considered questionable for this matchup.

Arizona State has struggled throughout the season, going 10-15 overall and 6-9 in conference play. However, the Sun Devils have found some magic of late, winning three straight games. After having difficulty getting the ball through the hoop for most of the season, they’ve looked just fine in recent games, averaging 71 points over the last five. 

This 14-point spread is far too wide. We agree with the early money that narrowed this spread from 15.5 points at open to 14 at the time of this writing. The Sun Devils are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games overall and 5-2 ATS in their last seven as the underdog. They’ve been quality on the road, sitting at 6-3 ATS as the away team.

UCLA entered the season with high expectations after going to the Final Four a year ago and with almost every key contributor returning to the fold. It’s not that the Bruins have been bad this season, but rather that they haven’t seemed to quite live up to the hype. For those expecting a dominant campaign where the Bruins establish themselves, it simply hasn’t happened. Arizona is running away with the PAC-12, while UCLA is three full games back in the conference standings. 

Arizona State is playing its best basketball of the season, and we believe this spread is too inflated. Give us the underdogs. 

Prediction: Arizona State +14 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

The first time these two teams played, they combined for 171 points. The total was set at only 132 in that contest, so the cover margin was a gargantuan 39 points. Despite that fact, oddsmakers have set the total at 133.5 for this rematch, very close to the total for the original matchup.

Season-long stats paint this Sun Devils offense in a dim light. They rank 314th in scoring offense, mustering only 65 points per game. Shooting has been the main culprit. The Sun Devils rank 339th in both field goal percentage and 3-point percentage while checking in at 329th in free-throw percentage. 

Arizona State is 233rd in KenPom’s offensive efficiency, one of the worst marks you will see for a power conference team. 

UCLA ranks 15th in KenPom’s offensive efficiency, but it plays at a fairly slow pace (235th in adjusted tempo). The Sun Devils have an underrated defense, ranking 40th in defensive efficiency and limiting opponents to only 40.2% from the field.

It may be difficult to stomach an Under bet after these teams combined for 171 in the first meeting (albeit in overtime), but that was an aberration. The Sun Devils have gotten better offense for a couple of recent games, but their season-long metrics paint a more accurate picture of what to expect. This should be a low-scoring affair.

Prediction: Under 133.5 (-110)

Best bet

This is an inflated spread, and the Bruins are getting too much love from the oddsmakers.

They’re the better team and will be playing at home with a revenge angle after suffering defeat in the first matchup. Still, that narrative seems to be driving this line into unreasonable territory. We’re taking the points with the Sun Devils, winners of three straight games.

Pick: Arizona State +14 (-110)

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