Arizona State vs USC Picks and Predictions: Trojans Return Home, Roll Against ASU

The No. 15 USC Trojans (16-2, 6-2) spent Thursday and Saturday completing the Pac-12 mountain road trip, picking up two convincing wins.

They return home on Tuesday to face off against the Arizona State Sun Devils (6-10, 2-4), who have failed to find their footing since returning to play after a slew of COVID-related postponements. These struggles could not come at a more unfortunate time schedule-wise, with their next four games against No. 15 USC (twice), No. 3 Arizona, and No. 7 UCLA.

Continue reading for our free college basketball picks and predictions for Arizona State vs. USC on Monday, January 24th for more.

Arizona State vs USC odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

USC opened as large 13.5-point favorites and have since been bet down to -11.5. The total opened at 134 and has since moved just a half-point up.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Arizona State vs USC predictions

• Prediction: USC -11.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 134.5 (-110)
• Best bet: USC -11.5 (-110)

Predictions made on 1/24/2022 at 4:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Arizona State vs USC game info

• Location: Galen Center, Los Angeles, CA
• Date: Monday, January 24, 2022
• Tip-off: 11:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN2

Arizona State at USC betting preview

Injuries

Arizona State: No injuries to report.
USC: No injuries to report.

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Arizona State is 12-4 to the Under this season, including 6-1 in their last seven. Find more NCAA betting trends for Arizona State vs. USC.

Arizona State vs USC picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

Through mid-December, life was great for the USC Trojans. They were undefeated at 12-0, ranked inside the Top 10 in the AP poll, and were looking to give Arizona and UCLA a serious run for the Pac-12 crown. Following a long stretch of COVID postponements and a clumsy return from play, the Trojans finished this past week by completing the notoriously difficult Pac-12 mountain trip with two wins at Colorado and Utah. On Tuesday, they will look to keep the momentum rolling.

While his brother is in the NBA putting together a convincing Rookie of the Year season, Isaiah Mobley (14.8 PPG, 8.8 RPG) remains with the Trojans as their leader on both ends of the floor. Mobley has markedly improved in his junior year, improving in nearly every statistical category while seeing increased usage and volume. He also does it at all three levels of the court, averaging a near equal split of shots between at the rim, on two-point jumpers, and from deep.

Fellow forward Chevez Goodwin (12.8 PPG, 7.5 RPG) has arguably seen an even more drastic improvement and is enjoying much more success this year compared to last year, during which he was spending his first year on the team following a transfer from Wofford. Chevez is overall more efficient than Mobley but does it on less usage given that he doesn't provide a perimeter presence (he has taken one three in his two seasons at USC).

But Mobley and Goodwin are more than just scorers, they're a big reason why USC has such an incredible presence inside. The Trojans rank first in field goal percentage allowed at the rim, seventh in rebounding, and 52nd in blocks. But Arizona State's offensive approach doesn't lean on playing at the rim, with just two other Power 6 teams shooting a lower percentage of their shots at the rim (Baylor and Ohio State).

Instead, the Sun Devils shoot a third of their shots in the form of two-point jumpers, a clip that ranks 30th in the nation. They aren't overly impressive there, shooting just 38.4% on those shots (127th) and largely playing a lot of iso to get those looks, assisting just 25% of those makes (202nd). USC doesn't mind teams taking those shots but they sure are good at contesting them, allowing the 27th-lowest field goal percentage (31.2%) on such looks.

With the Sun Devils being a poor three-point shooting team on top of all of that (their 27.8% ranks 13th-worst in the nation), it's hard to find where the points will be coming from on Arizona State's end.

Prediction: Team Spread (Odds)

Over/Under analysis

With how inefficiently Arizona State scores, it should come as no surprise that they've played 12-4 to the Under this season. This includes the current stretch of going Under in six of their last seven, during which the average total has been a noticeably low 132.9.

And while they may be deficient offensively, the Sun Devils do show some promise on the other end. They rank a respectable 66th in KenPom defensive efficiency which is largely built on their ability to defend inside the perimeter, ranking 50th with their 45.6% field goal percentage allowed on two-point attempts. Expect them to give Mobley and Goodwin just enough trouble to prevent the scoring from exploding.

Prediction: Under 134.5 (-110)

Best bet

Outside of Mobley and Goodwin, USC also has Boogie Ellis (12.8 PPG) and Drew Peterson (11.2 PPG). The two are significant perimeter presences for USC, with Ellis chipping in as a 35.3% career three-point shooter and Peterson having steadily improved his three-point shot in each of his four years now, going from 29.8% his freshman year all the way up to 43.1% this year.

In that sense, USC has an "out" if they cannot find the answers inside the perimeter on offense, unlike Arizona State, who is more one-dimensional. And of course, this comes on top of all of the other matchup edges USC possesses. Expect the Trojans to push those edges to a comfortable win, and to keep the ball rolling after a weekend of tough road wins.

Pick: USC -11.5 (-110)

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