Arizona vs Arizona State Picks and Predictions: Wildcats Snuff Out Sun Devils' Flame

The Arizona Wildcats have established themselves as a real threat for the top prize in college basketball.

Tournament time is still a way off, however, as the Wildcats still must make it through February. Next up is a short trip to Tempe to do battle with Arizona State. Despite an ugly 7-13 record, the Sun Devils have been fighting tough lately, securing an 87-84 triple-overtime win over UCLA last time out.

Will Arizona prove superior, or will Arizona State muddy things up?

Check out our college basketball betting picks and predictions for the Arizona Wildcats and Arizona State Sun Devils on Monday, February 7 to find out.

Arizona vs Arizona State odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Arizona opened as a 14.5-point favorite, but the line has been bet down to -13 at the time of this writing. The total has jumped a few points from 142 at open to 144 at current.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Arizona vs Arizona State predictions

• Prediction: Arizona -13 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 144 (-113)
• Best bet: Arizona State team total Under 64.5 (-110)

Predictions made on 2/7/2022 at 8:20 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Arizona vs Arizona State game info

• Location: Desert Financial Arena, Tempe, AZ
• Date: Monday, February 7, 2022
• Tip-off: 9:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Fox Sports 1

Arizona at Arizona State betting preview

Injuries

Arizona: Kim Aiken Jr. F (Out).
Arizona State: Marcus Bagley F (Out), Justin Rochelin G (Out), Jordan Williams G (Out).

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 4-0 in the Wildcats’ last 4 games overall. Find more NCAA betting trends for Arizona vs. Arizona State.

Arizona vs Arizona State picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

When these teams played a week ago on Jan. 29, Arizona had its worst offensive performance of the season. The Wildcats shot just 32% from the field and hit 3 of 23 attempts from 3-point range en route to a sloppy 67-56 win at home. The Wildcats average the third-most points per game nationally (84.9), so a repeat performance can hardly be expected.

The Sun Devils have found new life over the last few games. After covering the spread in the first matchup with Arizona, they played tight in a narrow 58-53 loss to a ranked USC team before pulling off a momentous 87-84 win over UCLA in triple overtime. Still, that’s a sign of the gulf between these two programs — Arizona State is being praised for its recent form despite managing only one win in five games, while Arizona is 19-2 and firmly entrenched in the one seed conversation.

Don’t let the prior matchup or Arizona State’s recent form fool you — the Wildcats are still the vastly superior team. Arizona is up to No. 2 overall in KenPom, while Arizona State can be found all the way down at No. 133.

The Sun Devils will struggle mightily to score, sporting the 327th-best scoring offense at just 63.5 points per game. The main problem is that they simply can’t shoot the ball, ranking 351st in both field goal percentage (38.7%) and 3-point percentage (28.0%). 

Arizona is an elite defense unit, surrendering only 64.5 points per game despite playing at a torrid pace. The Wildcats have the second-best field goal percentage allowed at 36.8%, so the Sun Devils will be up against it offensively. 

This seems like a spot where Arizona pulls away. Both teams are off short rest, but it was Arizona State who played in three overtimes and will have the more exhausted legs. This is also a letdown spot for the Sun Devils after such a massive upset. The Wildcats, meanwhile, have been mostly spotless outside of a dud at UCLA on Jan. 25. Arizona will shoot better than it did in the initial meeting between these two schools, and the defense will be suffocating. 

Prediction: Arizona -13 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

May the Arizona Under train keep on rolling.

The Wildcats are 7-1 to the Under in their last 8 games, cashing by margins of 15, 7, 25, 16, 8.5, 12.5, and 23. The offense plays at a wicked pace and racked up ungodly numbers against weak competition, skewing their overall analytical profile. This causes Arizona totals to be higher than they really should be in the heart of conference play, allowing for value on the Under.

The Wildcats seem impossible to score on at times with 6-foot-7 Bennedict Mathurin, 6-foot-11 Azuolas Tubelis, and 7-foot-1 Christian Koloko defending the rim. The Sun Devils are undersized and will be severely outrebounded in this matchup, so second-chance points will be few and far between. 

Arizona State can’t shoot and will be facing off with one of the stingiest defenses in the country. It’d be a shock if they got near 70 points. The Wildcats had their worst offensive performance of the season in the first meeting and still managed 67 points, so we can expect some positive regression. These teams went way below the total by a 25-point margin in the first meeting, and we think they go Under once again albeit by a slimmer margin.

Prediction: Under 144 (-113)

Best bet

We feel comfortable with both the side and total, but we’ll be targeting Arizona State’s team total as our best bet.

The Sun Devils average only 63.5 points per game and are facing one of the best defenses in the entire country, yet their team total is set at 64.5. The Sun Devils can’t shoot and managed only 56 points in the first meeting, an output that we expect to be repeated on Monday night. 

Pick: Arizona State team total Under 64.5 (-110)

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