A juicy Big 12 finale awaits us when the Kansas Jayhawks and Arizona Wildcats face off.
You know the Jayhawks' story by now, but let's refresh. Preseason #1? Check. National Championship aspirations?
Of course. Kansas had both things to start the year, only to (mostly) fall flat on its face throughout.
Rock Chalk broke one of the longest consecutive streaks in the Top 25 this season and will come into today with bracket projections placing them around an 8 seed.
Read on for my Kansas vs. Arizona college basketball picks for Saturday, March 8th.
Arizona vs Kansas prediction
My best bet
Over 153 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Arizona Wildcats has put up some points over three of its last four games, but they've also given up.
96 points were allowed to BYU, 84 to Iowa State, and, last weekend, an even 100 to Arizona State. Wildcats head coach Tommy Lloyd has praised his team recently for mostly taking care of business, but he's also lamented this part.
"Obviously, it's three out of four games where teams have played pretty well offensively against us," Lloyd said. "So, we've got to figure out: Is there a code that's been cracked?
Is it a little bit of the code being cracked and a little bit of bad luck? Sometimes, they just make the shots, right? We've got to dig a little deeper and look into it."
Try as you might, Tommy; I'm not sure those answers are found in this spot against this Kansas Jayhawks team. I'm grabbing the Over of 151.5 as my best bet. It's a number I projected at 155.5.
For most of the season, actually, Kansas has been a good Under team. Its offense has had some functional issues throughout the year, and even over its last three games, two of the Jayhawks' games have gone under.
I'm still holding out a little hope that the market has gotten a little too low on them, though. Even if not, there are some areas that they exploit here.
The biggest of those happens to be one of the sets that are the main component of the Kansas offense: "big cuts and rolls." That's no surprise, considering players like Hunter Dickinson and KJ Adams are in the fold.
The Jayhawks run such plays at one of the highest clippings in the country, sitting in the 99th percentile in frequency. No power five team runs such plays more. Arizona rightly allows scoring above the national average here.
Being slightly below-average defending plays is no match for a team that runs them as effectively as KU. This gives me confidence that they will get regular half-court offense from them in a matchup that lends itself to plenty of transition chances.
On the other hand, Arizona's offense will face a relatively stern test, but it's an elite unit that I have confidence in doing enough to do its part. The Cats will speed this game up and use a strong transition offense to punish Kansas.
Even though they'll give up scoring opportunities, Kansas won't have much of a disagreement with an uptempo game because it will get its own offense going.
These are all good things for us when betting the over. I expect plenty of points.
Arizona vs Kansas same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 153
Hunter Dickinson Over 16.5 points
It is finally Senior Day for Hunter Dickinson, and while these point totals are typically priced into the number, I don't think it's enough here.
I'm pairing him to exceed his points total with my best bet. Dickinson's production has been up and down this season, but the last time he faced a defense with a similar issue was in Colorado at the end of February.
In that game, he scored 32 points. I expected this number to be 18.5 or at least a juiced 17.5. I can't pass up what is both a tremendous situational spot and matchup.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Arizona vs Kansas odds
Arizona vs Kansas live odds
Arizona vs Kansas opening odds
- Spread: Arizona +1.5 (-104) | Kansas -1.5 (-118)
- Moneyline: Arizona (+106) | Kansas (-128)
- Over/Under: Over 151.5 (-110) | Under 151.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Arizona vs Kansas betting trend to know
Arizona has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 14 away games (+1.35 Units / 9% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Arizona vs. Kansas.
How to watch Arizona vs Kansas
| Location | Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence, KS |
| Date | Saturday, 3-8-2025 |
| Tip-off | 4:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Arizona vs Kansas key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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