Arizona vs UCLA Pac-12 Final Picks and Predictions: Big Game Bruins Deliver Again

The top-seeded Arizona Wildcats (30-3) meet the No. 2 seed UCLA Bruins (25-6) in the Pac-12 Tournament Championship game Saturday night in Las Vegas, Nevada.

The Wildcats have steamrolled through the competition this season and have all but locked up a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. They suffered only two defeats in Pac-12 play, but one of those losses came at the hands of the Bruins.

UCLA made the Final Four a year ago and returned all five starters. The Bruins are a veteran team with plenty of experience in this situation, and they’re the only team in the conference that can truly match up with Arizona.

Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for the Arizona Wildcats vs. UCLA Bruins on Saturday, March 12 to find out.

Arizona vs UCLA odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Arizona opened -1.5 across most books. Despite some fluctuation up and down at different books, the line is once again -1.5 in most locations as of Saturday morning. The total opened 143.5 and was quickly bet down a half-point to 143.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Arizona vs UCLA predictions

• Prediction: UCLA +1.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 143 (-110)
• Best bet: UCLA +1.5 (-110)

Predictions made on 3/12/2022 at 10:45 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Arizona vs UCLA game info

• Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
• Date: Saturday, March 12, 2022
• Tip-off: 9:00 p.m. ET
• TV: FS1

Arizona vs UCLA betting preview

Injuries

Arizona: Kerr Kriisa G (Questionable).
UCLA: Mac Etienne F (Out).

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Wildcats are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games as a favorite. Find more NCAA betting trends for Arizona vs. UCLA.

Arizona vs UCLA picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

Arizona is an elite team by any manner of qualification. The Wildcats are the top seed in this tournament for a reason after laying waste to the Pac-12 in the regular season. They sit at 30-3 overall in Tommy Lloyd’s first season at the helm in Tucson and will look to cap off a magical season with a Pac-12 Tournament championship and then a deep run in March.

Arizona ranks third in adjusted efficiency, per KenPom. It’s an elite offense, checking in at seventh in adjusted efficiency while averaging a robust 84.7 points per game. The defense has slipped over the last month — once a Top-10 group, the Wildcats now rank 17th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency. They’re still fantastic on that end of the court, ranking sixth nationally in field goal defense at 38.2%.

UCLA made the Final Four as a double-digit seed a season ago and has remained a Top-15 team for much of the season despite some ups and downs. It returns all five starters to that team from a season ago and will not be daunted by the bright lights in this tournament atmosphere. 

The Bruins have looked full-go in Las Vegas after being hampered by injuries for most of the season. They beat both Washington State and USC by exactly 10 points, covering the spread in both contests. Arizona, meanwhile, squeaked by Stanford 84-80 in a nail-biter and was able to pull away from Colorado in the second half of the semifinal game to win by 10. 

Arizona is expected to be without the services of guard Kerr Kriisa, who injured his ankle in the waning seconds of the Stanford game. He’s listed as questionable for this contest but was spotted in a wheelchair after the Stanford game and missed the semifinal, so we’d be very surprised if the team doesn’t opt to rest him until the NCAA Tournament. 

Kriisa leads the team with 2.5 made threes per game. His absence significantly changes Arizona’s offensive outlook considering that Bennedict Mathurin is the only other player on the roster averaging more than one made three per game. Kriisa’s shooting is essential to the Wildcats’ spacing offensively. He was the leading scorer with 16 points in a 10-point victory over UCLA on Feb. 3.

The Bruins beat the Wildcats in the other matchup this season, playing terrific defense en route to a 75-59 win at Pauley Pavilion on Jan. 25. One key note in that game was that Arizona struggled mightily shooting the ball — especially Kriisa, who was 0 for 12 from the field. The Wildcats lack elite shooting outside of Kriisa and no one was able to step up and knock down shots when they needed it most.

This UCLA team is as battle-tested as they come. Arizona is a great team, but it’s not invincible by any stretch of the imagination. 

Prediction: UCLA +1.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

Arizona notoriously plays at a very fast pace, ranking seventh in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric. The Wildcats have tremendous size and like to run to get their bigs rolling toward the basket at full speed, leading to easy looks. It’s no wonder they rank fifth nationally in field goal percentage at 49.5%.

UCLA has an elite defense. The Bruins rank 11th in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom. The Bruins have size on the wing and are very tough in the paint — the perfect combination to limit this Wildcats team. It’s not a coincidence that Arizona was held well below its average scoring output in the two prior meetings between these teams. 

Arizona is one of the tallest teams in the nation and should be able to limit a UCLA team that thrives off scoring in the paint and the mid-range. The Bruins are elite offensively despite their anti-analytics shot selection but play at only the 257th fastest tempo in the country, per KenPom.

It’s natural for championship games to be lower-scoring, and we see no reason why that would change in this one. Both teams are elite defensively and both prior meetings resulted in less than 143 points. Give us the Under.

Prediction: Under 143 (-110)

Best bet

UCLA has plenty of tournament experience and returns almost all its production from a Final Four team a year ago.

Arizona has been the best team in the conference this season, but it’s not battle-tested in an environment of this amount of pressure. The Wildcats will be without their best shooter and may struggle to truly open up this elite Bruins defense.

We’re not going against this UCLA team when it matters most.

Pick: UCLA +1.5 (-110)

Pages related to this topic