With plenty of quality college hoops games on tap for Saturday, you’d be remiss if you ignored the night game between two ranked SEC teams.
No. 13 Arkansas (12-2) travels to Neville Arena to face No. 22 Auburn (11-3) in one of the best games of the day.
The Razorbacks have won eight of their last nine games and rebounded from a three-point loss at LSU to open league play with a six-point win over a quality Missouri team.
Can Auburn right the ship after going 3-3 over its last three games?
Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for the Auburn Tigers and Arkansas Razorbacks on Saturday, January 7 to find out.
Arkansas vs Auburn best odds
Arkansas vs Auburn picks and predictions
Bruce Pearl’s No. 22 Auburn Tigers are ranked, but just barely so — they likely need a win to stay within the Top 25 considering their 3-3 record in the last six games, including a midweek 76-64 loss at Georgia.
The Tigers are ranked 27th overall in KenPom, checking in at 61st in adjusted offensive efficiency and 16th in adjusted defensive efficiency. They aren’t elite in any one area, although a stingy defense led by big man Johni Broome (2.5 blocks, 1.1 steals per game) is the calling card.
Broome and Wendell Green (12.3 ppg) are the only two players averaging double figures, as Pearl runs a deep rotation that sees 10 different players averaging at least 10 minutes per game. There may not be a lot of star power on this team outside of Broome, but it’s a deep and talented roster headed by one of the most well-known coaches in the country.
No. 13 Arkansas, on the other hand, is firmly within the Top 25 rankings — and with good reason. The Razorbacks have won eight of their last nine games and appear to have yet another fearsome team under coach Eric Musselman.
Marquee wins are one thing that this team is lacking. In its two games against teams ranked within KenPom’s Top 25, Arkansas lost to Creighton (90-87) and needed overtime to top San Diego State (78-74). Adding a signature win to the resume is the goal for Musselman’s squad on Saturday.
Despite lacking many wins over quality opposition, I believe in Musselman and this squad and think they’re too good not pick up a chunk of quality victories in conference play. You can only play who’s on your schedule, and the Razorbacks have performed just fine thus far. This is a talented roster with a trustworthy head coach to back, so I’m buying.
Arkansas checks in at ninth overall in KenPom, ranking 39th in adjusted offensive efficiency and fourth in adjusted defensive efficiency. That elite defense should help the Razorbacks travel well and guide them to victory.
My best bet: Arkansas +2.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
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Arkansas vs Auburn spread analysis
Arkansas has been slightly above .500 ATS this season with a 7-6-1 mark. Auburn has been highly unprofitable back at 5-9 ATS.
Musselman’s squads are usually prepared to travel, as Arkansas is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 road games. The Razorbacks have even performed well in away games against tough opponents, going 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games against a team with a winning record.
The trends do not favor Bruce Pearl’s squad quite as much. Auburn is 1-5 ATS in its last six games, struggling to find a groove. The Tigers have struggled against tough competition, going 1-5 ATS in their last six games against teams with a winning record.
Ricky Council leads the Hogs with 18.4 ppg while two other players — Nick Smith and Anthony Black — average double figures. The Razorbacks are statistically the better team on both sides of the ball and I trust Musselman more than I do Pearl. Arkansas is also in bettor form. Everything is pointing toward the Hogs for me in this handicap, as I believe Auburn is getting a tad too much love for its homecourt advantage considering the factors in the Tigers’ favor seemingly end there.
Arkansas vs Auburn Over/Under analysis
If you bet the Under in every Arkansas game this season, you’d be a much wealthier person than you used to be considering the Hogs are 10-4 to the Under.
It shouldn’t be a surprise that Arkansas has trended toward the Under considering its elite defense. The Razorbacks surrender just 62.2 ppg, good for 37th nationally. They thrive off forcing tough looks, as opponents are shooting just 41.3% from the field (96th) and 28.7% from 3-point range (22nd).
Auburn is not a good shooting team whatsoever, converting on 43.4% of its attempts from the field (245th) and just 28.9% of its attempts from deep (340th). When a bad shooting team faces an elite defense, it’s hard to be optimistic.
Arkansas’ offense is good, but probably not great. The Hogs average 77.4 ppg while shooting 48.5% from the field. One thing they do struggle with is 3-point shooting, converting just 29.9% of their attempts from behind the arc. Auburn typically shuts down the arc defensively, ranking seventh nationally while limiting opponents to 27% shooting from downtown.
Both teams derive their identity from the way they play defense, and both teams struggle mightily shooting the ball from deep. I’m inclined to play the Under given this handicap, and the total sits at a playable 141.5 after surprisingly jumping a few points since opening at 138.5. I’d be comfortable playing the Under at the current number, and there’s a chance a better number arrives before tip-off if the line movement continues.
Arkansas vs Auburn betting trend to know
Arkansas is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 road games. Find more College basketball betting trends for Arkansas vs. Auburn.
Arkansas vs Auburn game info
| Location: | Neville Arena, Auburn, AL |
| Date: | Saturday, January 7, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SEC Network |
