Arkansas vs Florida Picks and Predictions: Razorbacks Ride Defense to Tight Victory

The red-hot Arkansas Razorbacks are looking for their 12th win in their last 13 games when they visit the Florida Gators on Tuesday night.

But the Gators come into this game with some confidence after upsetting No. 3-ranked Auburn last time out. Oddsmakers like their chances to keep rolling in the Swamp with this game sitting near a pick’em. So, can they get a second big win in as many games with a win over the Razorbacks?

Find out in our free college basketball betting picks and predictions for Arkansas vs. Florida on February 22.

Arkansas vs Florida odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Gators opened this SEC matchup as 1-point home underdogs but were bumped up slightly to 1.5. Since then, Florida money has started to come as some Picks have started showing up.

The total, on the other hand, has seen some good action. It opened at 135.5, got as high as 137.5, and is now as low as 134.5 at some shops.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Arkansas vs Florida predictions

• Prediction: Arkansas Pick'em (-110)
• Prediction: Under 135.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Florida team total Under 66.5 (-110)

Predictions made on 2/22/2022 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Arkansas vs Florida game info

• Location: Exactech Arena, Gainesville, FL
• Date: Tuesday, February 22, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN2

Arkansas at Florida betting preview

Injuries

Arkansas: No key injuries to report.
Florida: No key injuries to report.

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 4-0 in Arkansas' last four games when facing a team with a winning straight-up record and 6-0 in Florida's last six games overall. Find more NCAA betting trends for Arkansas vs. Florida.

Arkansas vs Florida picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

Arkansas has been arguably the hottest team in the country winning 11 of their last 12 games, and the Hogs have been a cash cow over that stretch, going 11-1 ATS. 

Meanwhile, the Gators are coming off a much-needed win over Auburn, taking down the Tigers 63-62 as 3.5-point home dogs. The win snapped a streak where they failed to cover the spread in five consecutive games. 

But Florida has been much better at moving the ball at home which leads to better looks from deep. That played out beautifully in the game against Auburn as they shot 40% from 3-point range. Unfortunately, the Gators just haven’t been doing that consistently this season and shoot just 30.5% from deep for the season.

The matchup with Arkansas won’t help that.

The Razorbacks are a high-octane team that tries to get up as many shots as possible while getting after it on the defensive end of the floor. Arkansas ranks 17th in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom while ranking 24th in adjusted tempo.

The Hogs should also have a big edge on the glass. Arkansas ranks 26th in the nation in total rebounding while Florida comes in at 224th. So, there should be plenty of second-chance opportunities for the Razorbacks in this one. 

The cherry on top here is that Arkansas is the better free-throw shooting team. Something that must be looked at in a game this close. On top of that, Florida has basically been a bad bet since the start of December. While Florida has some tools to slow down Arkansas, it’s hard to fade the hot team with the better defense.

Prediction: Arkansas Pick'em (-110)

Over/Under analysis

Seeing the movement on the total for this game is certainly interesting. While the initial money came in on the Over, since then it’s been all Under money and we’re leaning towards the latter. 

For starters, while Arkansas loves to get out and run they tend to play at the pace of their opponents which you could see in their 58-48 win over Tennessee. Plus, the Razorbacks are averaging a mediocre 66 points per game over their last five.

And Florida knows that if it wants to win this game, they’ll need to slow this game way down and grind out possessions in the halfcourt. That is just fine with the Gators who rank 288th in adjusted tempo but they’ll also need to hit some threes as well. That may be asking a lot against a Hogs defense that allows opponents to shoot just 32.3% from deep. 

This game has defensive battle written all over it.

Prediction: Under 135.5 (-110)

Best bet

The Gators get an interesting team total in this matchup of 66.5. They average 69.7 points per game for the season, but that number has dropped to 62.8 over their last 10 games (in regulation) and have only gone over that number three times over that span.

Meanwhile, the Razorbacks have allowed opponents to go Over this number just three times (in regulation) over their last 12 games. 

With an expected slower pace and the Razorbacks' ability to make life on the perimeter tough for the Gators, it’s tough to see Florida eclipsing this number tonight.

Pick: Florida team total Under 66.5 (-110)

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