Arkansas vs Kentucky Odds, Picks and Predictions: Razorbacks Let Reeves Run Wild

The Kentucky Wildcats will look to take another step towards a double-bye in the SEC Tournament when they host the Arkansas Razorbacks on Saturday afternoon. Our college basketball odds have the Wildcats favored to win at home by double-digits.

Sitting with a .500 record on the season, it’s been a rough campaign for Arkansas. The Hogs held Kentucky to just 63 points back on January 27, their second-lowest point total for the season, but it still wasn’t enough to get the win at home. Now they must try to pull off a road upset for just their sixth conference victory. 

For Kentucky, it’s all about winning out. The Wildcats are in a six-team race for the Top-4 spots in the conference, and they’ll be looking to lock up an 11th win in conference play. Rob Dillingham missed the first game with Arkansas, and his presence gives them yet another weapon with which to attack the Hogs.

Our college basketball picks for Arkansas vs Kentucky on Saturday, March 2 have identified a plus-money player prop that's well worth some of your bankroll.

Arkansas vs Kentucky best odds

Arkansas vs Kentucky picks and predictions

Antonio Reeves was talked into returning for this season with the Kentucky Wildcats by the incoming freshmen, and boy, has it ever paid off. The senior guard is averaging 19.9 points per game, hitting 3-point shots at a 44.2% clip.

While he’s got an outside case for making the All-American team and a decent shot at being SEC Player of the Year, he’s playing within the team rather than trying to force things and elevate his stats. He’s an excellent outside shooter when he’s able to get his feet set, and he’s lethal on the fast break.

In the first meeting against the Arkansas Razorbacks, Reeves made four of his eight attempts from beyond the arc as he put up 24 points with a 31.4 usage rate. While his usage rate the past two games has been exactly 20.8, he's still managed to extend a streak of four straight 20-point games.

While he made just two of his outside shots in each of those games, he attempted 10 across them. Over his last 10 outings, starting with that Arkansas win, he’s put up 55 shots from downtown with 26 of them splashing through.

A big reason for his success against the Hogs is the fact they rank 201st in 3-point defense. Teams are making 34.1% of their outside shots against them despite the Hogs ranking 87th in opposing 3-point rate. Arkansas is also allowing 112 points per 100 possessions in conference play.

Kentucky took just 20 threes in that game, which is a bit low for them, but it was also a poor offensive showing as they missed Dillingham’s energy and athleticism in the halfcourt. Now, they’ll have both guards — plus Reed Sheppard and D.J. Wagner — to throw against Arkansas.

Sheppard will draw extra attention coming off a game that saw him take over down the stretch as he scored 32 points and handed out seven assists. He and Dillingham are outstanding facilitators and Reeves is one of the players they’ll be looking to find on the wing.

This game has a total that projects Kentucky to score 90+ points and it’s hard to see that happening without Reeves having a strong game. Anytime I can get Reeves at plus-money to knock down 3+ treys, I’m taking it. 

My best bet: Antonio Reeves Over 2.5 made threes (+105 at DraftKings)

Arkansas vs Kentucky same-game parlay

Antonio Reeves 3+ made threes

Reed Sheppard 5+ assists

Kentucky to win and either team not to score 80+ points

+550 at bet365

If Reeves has a strong game, Sheppard is likely helping facilitate it. Sheppard had five assists in the first meeting and has dropped 5+ dimes in six of his last 10 games. Over the past two, he’s had 6+ and I expect Arkansas to try to run him off the 3-point line and force the ball out of his hands. 

Arkansas is averaging just over 70 points per game on the road this season, well below their home average, and there’s a difference of nearly 6% in their eFG% on the road vs. at home.

The Hogs must slow this game down to win, and its offense hasn’t topped 80 points in six of its seven conference road tilts. Kentucky will win hold Arkansas below 80 points.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Arkansas vs Kentucky spread and Over/Under analysis

The Wildcats are favored to win this contest by 13.5 points, with the spread opening anywhere between 12 and 14 points and quickly moving to its current number. 

The Hogs are 3-1 ATS in their last four games and have covered the number in three of their last four away from home, but they lost to Vanderbilt last time out as 10-point favorites. They haven’t done well against teams with offensive profiles similar to Kentucky’s this season.

The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS over their last five contests and have covered in their last two as home favorites. They’re also 4-1 SU in that span. 

Arkansas ranks 242nd in adjusted defensive efficiency since the start of February, and teams are getting to the line with ease against the Hogs. Kentucky has done a better job the past few weeks of attacking the rim and knocked down all 15 of its free-throw attempts in the second half against Mississippi State. 

The total of 166.5 has moved slightly after opening at 167.5 in a few places. Arkansas’ last game with Vanderbilt totaled 167 points, the only game in its last six to reach that mark. That said, the Over is 7-1 in the last eight games for the Hogs.

Kentucky’s been an Over machine this season, and a stretch of three straight Unders was crushed in its last two games. The Wildcats scored 117 against Alabama and 91 on the road at Mississippi State, pushing both games well Over the total. Kentucky is 23-9 O/U in its last 32 games.  

That said, I might lean Under. I don’t think Arkansas is going to be able to put up enough offense to do its part as this could end up being a result similar to the 92-63 loss to Tennessee a few weeks ago. 

Arkansas vs Kentucky betting trend to know

Kentucky has gone Over the total in 23 of its last 32 games (+13.10 units / 37% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Arkansas vs. Kentucky.

Arkansas vs Kentucky game info

Arkansas vs Kentucky key injuries

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