In the final regular-season game for both teams, the Tennessee Volunteers host the Arkansas Razorbacks Saturday in what should be a fun conference game between two very good teams. The winner of this game will be the higher seed in the SEC tournament too. That means there’s quite a bit on the line here.
Will the Volunteers get revenge on the Razorbacks for their road loss against them in February? You’ll want to keep reading our Arkansas vs. Tennessee college basketball picks and predictions for March 5 to find out.
Arkansas vs Tennessee odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Volunteers opened as 6.5-point favorites against the Razorbacks, and this line has bounced around a little since. You can find the number from anywhere between 6 and 7 points, so you just want to make sure you’re looking everywhere. The total, which opened at 139.5 can be found from anywhere from 138.5 to 139.5 right now.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Arkansas vs Tennessee predictions
Predictions made on 3/5/2022 at 12:20 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Arkansas vs Tennessee game info
• Location: Thompson-Boling Arena, Knoxville, TN
• Date: Saturday, March 5, 2022
• Tip-off: 12:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Arkansas at Tennessee betting preview
Injuries
Arkansas: No injuries to report.
Tennessee: Olivier Nkamhoua F (Out).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Arkansas is 6-0 against the spread in its last six road games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Arkansas vs. Tennessee.
Arkansas vs Tennessee picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
These are two of the best teams that the SEC has to offer, and this should be an extremely exciting showdown in the final game of the regular season. It is, however, one that should go down to the wire, which makes it hard to shy away from backing the Razorbacks here.
One of the biggest reasons for that is the matchup between the Volunteers offense and the Razorbacks defense. Arkansas is 15th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency (all efficiency stats from KenPom.com) this season, while Tennessee comes into this game after having shot under 40.0% from the floor in three of the last six games. This Volunteers team can occasionally stall out on offense and it’s not going to be easy for them to figure it out here.
Jaylin Williams is one of the biggest reasons that this will be a tough game on the Vols. Williams is a presence on both ends, as he blocks shots and gets his hands on a lot of passes on defense while also being a versatile scorer on offense. Tennessee really doesn’t have an answer for him on either end of the floor, which is why Williams had 13 points and 16 rebounds in a low-scoring affair when these teams met in February.
Tennessee similarly had trouble with JD Notae, who had 13 points in that meeting in February. Notae is averaging 18.8 points per game this season and he could get hot in what is the final regular-season game of his career. He’s also coming off of a dud against the LSU Tigers last game, so he’s motivated for a nice performance here.
The Razorbacks just need to be hyperaware of the Vols shooters in this one. Santiago Vescovi and Josiah-Jordan James combined to go just 1-for-15 from three the last time these teams met. They won’t be quite as bad this time around, but Arkansas needs to get hands up on defense so they’re not getting easy looks. The Razorbacks must also get back after missed shots on the offensive end, as they don’t want to let Kennedy Chandler jumpstart the Volunteers transition game.
Prediction: Arkansas +7 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
In the last meeting between these teams, the Volunteers shot 27.1% from the floor and the Razorbacks were at only 30.5%. Meanwhile, the two combined to shoot just 9-for-46 from behind the 3-point line. These teams are both excellent on the defensive end, but they’re also very good on offense. Look for this one to feature a lot more shot-making and don’t be surprised if this game doesn’t resemble the other one at all. Arkansas plays at the 33rd-fastest pace in the nation, which certainly doesn’t hurt the case for the Over.
Since Eric Musselman became the head coach of the Razorbacks, the Over also happens to be 23-8 in the team’s road games. The Over is also 29-17 when Arkansas is coming off of a home win in that time. It’s also worth noting that the Over had hit in the previous seven meetings between these teams before the last one turned into a grind-it-out affair.
Prediction: Over 138.5 (-110)
Best bet
Arkansas is 24-11 against the spread when playing SEC opponents over the last two seasons, and the team is also 9-2 ATS when coming off a win over an SEC opponent this season. On top of that, the Razorbacks are 8-1 ATS when coming off a home no-cover in which the team won as a favorite over the last two seasons. They’re also facing a Volunteers team that they beat by 10 when they met in Fayetteville on February 19.
Home-court advantage should help Tennessee even things up a little in this one, but it’s not going to be responsible for nearly a 20-point swing. This spread is just way too big for two very good basketball teams that match up well with one another. Look for the Volunteers to come away with a hard-fought win on Senior Day, but don’t expect them to wipe the floor with a red-hot Razorbacks squad.
Pick: Arkansas +7 (-110)
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