The No. 4-ranked Auburn Tigers will try to lay down a marker in NCAA basketball action on Tuesday as they head to Tuscaloosa to take on the No. 24 Alabama Crimson Tide.
The Tide won the SEC Championship last year and the Tigers could be their toughest competition this season. Oddsmakers are expecting a close contest with college basketball betting lines opening with Bama as a slim 1.5-point home favorite before shifting to -3.
Here are our best free college basketball betting picks and predictions for Auburn vs. Alabama on Tuesday, January 11, with tipoff at 9 p.m. ET.
Auburn vs Alabama odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
This line opened with Alabama at -1.5 and the Over/Under at 156. Early money has come in on the Tide, shifting the line to Alabama -3, while the total has stayed steady.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Auburn vs Alabama predictions
Predictions made on 1/11/2022 at 10:45 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Auburn vs Alabama game info
• Location: Coleman Coliseum, Tuscaloosa, AL
• Date: Tuesday, January 11, 2022
• Tip-off: 9:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Auburn at Alabama betting preview
Injuries
Auburn: None.
Alabama: James Rojas F (Out), Nimari Burnett G (Out).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Crimson Tide are 0-6 against the spread in their last 6 games as a favorite. Find more NCAA betting trends for Auburn vs. Alabama.
Auburn vs Alabama picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
Alabama got its season off to a strong start and after back-to-back wins over Gonzaga and Houston jumped the Crimson Tide all the way up to No. 6 in the AP Top 25. But since then, the Tide have gone just 3-3 SU with defeats coming against Memphis, Davidson, and most recently Missouri — all of whom are unranked.
That said, all those losses came away from home and the Tide have been better at Coleman Coliseum, where they are 7-0 with an average scoring margin of plus-12.7 points per game. Alabama has a guard-oriented lineup led by Jaden Shackelford (16.3 ppg) and Jahvon Quinerly (15.5 points and 4.3 assists per game). The Tide rank eighth in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom while sitting 59th in adjusted defense efficiency.
Bruce Pearl has gotten Auburn off to a terrific start to the season with the Tigers reeling off 11 wins in a row and going 9-2 ATS since an overtime loss to UConn in November. The Tigers have a productive backcourt with sophomores K.D. Johnson (12.8 ppg) and Wendell Green Jr. (12.7 ppg, 4.6 apg), but their biggest advantage over their foes comes inside.
Freshman forward Jabari Smith will be one of the top picks in this year's NBA draft and leads the team with 15.5 ppg while seven-foot center Walker Kessler transferred from UNC and is second in the nation with 4.1 blocks per game while adding 7.7 rebounds per game.
Auburn has been dominant defensively, ranking eighth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and holding opponents to just 38.3% shooting, the seventh-lowest mark. The Tigers also rank 18th in adjusted offensive efficiency and that balance on both ends of the floor will make them a serious contender during March Madness.
Alabama enjoys home-court advantage in this contest but good defensive play tends to travel, and the size advantage for Auburn will be significant. Take the Tigers on the spread.
Prediction: Auburn +3 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
The Tide might not have their usual offensive success in this one but even if they are held in check a bit, they should still be able to put points on the board. After all, this is a school that ranks 10th in the country with 82.5 ppg and shoots a sizzling 58.1% from two-point range.
Auburn isn't far behind, averaging 80.2 ppg and coming off a pair of conference contests where they dropped over 80 points and shot over 53% from the field.
The Tide have some cracks on defense and are fresh off a contest where they surrendered 92 points to a Mizzou squad that puts up just 68.4 ppg. They also rank 34th in the country in adjusted tempo and tend to play at a faster pace, which lends itself to higher-scoring games. With the Tide going 8-2 O/U in their last 10 games, we're leaning towards the Over again.
Prediction: Over 156 (-110)
Best bet
We like Auburn on the spread but with this line continuing to grow we like them even more on the moneyline.
Not only have the Tide lost three of their last six games against average opposition but their two home victories during that span were far from impressive. They were neck-and-neck with Tennessee until a go-ahead three-pointer in the final minute and they trailed lowly Jacksonville State until midway through the second half.
If they couldn't put those schools away they'll have a very tough time against a well-coached, inter-state conference rival that does a great job of shutting down scorers inside the arc — which just happens to be Alabama's bread and butter. Don't be surprised if Tide sports fans taste defeat for the second night in a row and back the Tigers to come away with an upset win at +125.
Pick: Auburn ML (+125)
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