Once winners of 19 straight, the Auburn Tigers are just 3-3 over their last six games. Bruce Pearl & Co. have only lost four times all season, but all four losses have come on the road.
The Tigers’ final chance for redemption on the road in SEC play comes in Starkville tonight against a Mississippi State team that has won three of its last four games.
The SEC regular-season title is on the line, as the Tigers secure at least a share of the championship with a win.
Check out our free college basketball picks and predictions for the Auburn Tigers and Mississippi State Bulldogs on Wednesday, March 2.
Auburn vs Mississippi State odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Auburn is a narrow favorite on the road, sitting at -3 as of Wednesday morning. There hasn’t been any movement from the opener at this time. The total remains at 140.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Auburn vs Mississippi State predictions
Predictions made on 3/2/2022 at 7:45 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Auburn vs Mississippi State game info
• Location: Humphrey Coliseum, Starkville, MS
• Date: Wednesday, March 2, 2022
• Tip-off: 9:00 p.m. ET
• TV: SEC Network
Auburn at Mississippi State betting preview
Injuries
Auburn: Lior Berman G (Questionable).
Mississippi State: Rocket Watts G (Out), Keshawn Murphy F (Out).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Bulldogs are 8-20-1 against the spread in their last 29 games following a straight-up win. Find more NCAA betting trends for Auburn vs. Mississippi State .
Auburn vs Mississippi State picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
After a few tough losses on the road in SEC play, the Tigers are being undervalued in this spot against a team on the NCAA Tournament bubble. Auburn is still the No. 5 team in the country and possesses enough talent that they won 19-straight games earlier in the year.
Jabari Smith is a future Top-5 selection in the 2022 NBA Draft and leads the way with 16.6 points and 6.8 rebounds per game. Smith and Walker Kessler are a fearsome duo down low and should find success in the post against a Bulldogs team that ranks 187th in defending the paint per Haslametrics.com.
Auburn has been a profitable team to back this season, sitting at 18-11 ATS overall. All four of its losses have come on the road this season, so Wednesday night marks a big test. This is a very low spread for a quality Auburn team and the Tigers should easily be up to the challenge. The line is being influenced by disbelief in the Tigers’ capability on the road and the Bulldogs’ strong 14-2 record at Humphrey Coliseum.
While those are valid concerns, it’s worth pointing out that those recent losses on the road in SEC play came against tough opposition — Tennessee, Florida, and Arkansas.
The Tigers match up well defensively against a Mississippi State team that thrives at getting to the paint as a source of scoring. Kessler and Smith have defended the paint well all season. Kessler leads the nation with 4.7 blocks per game and his presence down low will be paramount in this matchup.
Auburn hasn’t shot the three well (31.7%, ranking 283rd nationally), but that hasn’t stopped the Tigers from chucking 25 attempts per night from beyond the arc. Given the perceived advantage in the paint, they’d be smart to avoid relying too much on the three in this spot.
The Tigers have a marked advantage down low in this matchup and possess superior talent. This is a low line for a team of Auburn’s quality, so we’ll be backing them against the spread.
Prediction: Auburn -3 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
Auburn likes to get out and run, ranking 48th in adjusted tempo per KenPom. Mississippi State is the complete opposite, ranking 268th in tempo. This game is being played on the Bulldogs’ home court, and slower tempos generally win out when facing an up-tempo opponent.
While we like Auburn against the spread, it’s worth noting that the offense is markedly worse on the road than it is at home. The Tigers average 79.1 points per game, raking 24th. Here are the Tigers’ offensive outputs over their last five SEC road games: 62, 62, 76, 74, 55. Three well-below average performances, one decent showing — albeit in overtime — and 74 points in a narrow two-point win over hapless Georgia.
It’s tough to bet an Under with a total this low in an Auburn game, but we believe the tempo and recent offensive performances on the road point in this direction.
Prediction: Under 140.5 (-110)
Best bet
You may have to bite your tongue to play this one given Auburn’s struggles on the road, but this is a spot to back the Tigers.
This is a very short line for a team of Auburn’s quality, and we don’t want to blindly buy into the recent trends when making our decision. Look for the Tigers to win the battle in the paint and come away with the cover in Starkville.
Pick: Auburn -3 (-110)
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