Tonight is loaded with marquee matchups on the hardwood. Perhaps the best is saved for last when the No. 4 Auburn Tigers face the No. 12 North Carolina Tar Heels at the Lahaina Civic Center in the semifinal of the Maui Invitational.
Both teams needed miraculous comebacks to advance past the quarterfinal, and my Auburn vs. North Carolina predictions expect both offenses to come out hot with a trip to the final on the line.
Auburn vs North Carolina prediction
My best bet
Over 165.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
This may seem like a high number at first glance, but I believe it’s justified once you dive into the numbers.
The North Carolina Tar Heels are all gas all the time, ranking sixth in adjusted tempo (per KenPom) while averaging 93 points per game. Their games see a ton of possessions, and they combine that volume with deadly efficiency (fifth in adjusted offensive efficiency).
All in all, UNC has scored at least 87 points in every game this season as an offense-first, offense-second style team. The rims have looked very friendly at the Lahaina Civics Center as the four quarterfinal games averaged 162.5 points per game, and considering North Carolina is 5-0 O/U this year, I don’t think this number has been adjusted enough.
RJ Davis (20.2 ppg) is one of the most experienced bucket-getters in the country, and guards Seth Trimble (17.4 ppg) and Elliot Cadeau (14.8 ppg) provide terrific compliments. There’s concern about the beef down low, a potential weakness that will likely be exploited by Johni Broome (20.2 ppg) and the Auburn Tigers.
Bruce Pearl’s Tigers rank second in adjusted offensive efficiency and should be able to put up a big number against a Tar Heels defense surrendering 76.4 ppg. Five other players alongside Broome average double figures, so they can toast this UNC defense however they please.
Auburn has scored at least 74 points in every game and averages 86.4 ppg. The fact this team has put up those numbers despite already having faced two of the nation’s best defenses (Houston, Iowa State) proved Auburn is loaded with firepower, and one shouldn’t expect it to slow down now in a winnable matchup.
The pace UNC brings can be a problem for a lot of teams, but not Auburn. The Tigers have tremendous depth and shouldn’t be afraid of keeping pace with the Heels.
Auburn vs North Carolina same-game parlay
Over 165.5
Auburn -4.5
One team is elite on both sides of the ball. The other has a terrific offense but possibly a lousy defense. I’ll stick with the known quantities and back Auburn as the favorite.
Neither team exactly lit the world on fire yesterday as Auburn needed to erase an 18-point deficit against Iowa State while UNC came back from down 17 in the second half to topple Dayton.
I can forgive Auburn’s performance more easily than UNC’s. Iowa State is ranked eighth in KenPom and has a suffocating defense that throws most teams off balance. The Tigers still righted the ship and did what was needed to win the game, which showed tremendous poise and resilience against a gritty team.
UNC hasn’t shown much consistency on the defensive end under Hubert Davis. This team has a ton of potential, but there’s also volatility in their performance from game to game, whereas Auburn looks like a great team on both ends of the court.
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Auburn vs North Carolina odds
Auburn vs North Carolina live odds
Auburn vs North Carolina opening odds
- Spread: Auburn -4 (-110) | North Carolina +4 (-110)
- Moneyline: Auburn -200 | North Carolina +165
- Over/Under: Over 165.5 (-110) | Under 165.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Auburn vs North Carolina betting trend to know
UNC is 9-0 O/U in its last nine games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Auburn vs. North Carolina.
How to watch Auburn vs North Carolina
| Location: | Lahania Civic Center, Maui, HI |
| Date: | Tuesday, 11-26-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 11:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Auburn vs North Carolina key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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