Auburn vs Texas A&M SEC Tournament Picks and Predictions: Tigers Too Much for Aggies

The No. 1 seed Auburn Tigers take on the Texas A&M Aggies in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals at noon on Friday.

The Aggies are fresh off an overtime victory against Florida and will now have to face off against one of the best teams in the nation in Auburn. Oddsmakers are expecting a comfortable victory for Bruce Pearl's squad with college basketball betting lines opening with the Tigers as 9-point favorites.

Here are our best free Auburn vs. Texas A&M college basketball betting picks and predictions for March 11.

Auburn vs Texas A&M odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The line hit the board on Thursday night with Auburn installed as a 9-point favorite with the Over/Under at 139.5. As of 8 p.m. ET, the line was starting to move towards Auburn and the Over with the spread shifting to -9.5 at some books and the total ticking up to 140.5. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Auburn vs Texas A&M predictions

• Prediction: Auburn -9 (-110)
• Prediction: Over 139.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Auburn -9 (-110)

Predictions made on 3/10/2022 at 8:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Auburn vs Texas A&M game info

• Location: Amalie Arena, Tampa, FL
• Date: Friday, March 11, 2022
• Tip-off: 1:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

Auburn vs Texas A&M betting preview

Injuries

Auburn: None.
Texas A&M: Marcus Williams G (Out).

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 14-4 in the Aggies' last 18 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. Find more NCAA betting trends for Auburn vs. Texas A&M.

Auburn vs Texas A&M picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

Auburn finished the regular season with a 27-4 record and was the No. 4-ranked team in the AP Top 25. That said, oddsmakers began to adjust to how good this Tigers team is and while they went 6-3 SU in their final nine regular-season games, they covered the spread just twice during that span. 

One of those covers did come against the Aggies on February 12, when they beat them 75-58 and cashed as 12.5-point faves.

Since that loss, Texas A&M has gone 6-1 SU and ATS, most recently edging Florida 83-80 in overtime on Thursday night. Playing two games inside of 24 hours is brutally tough on any college team, let alone one that battled in OT after squandering a 16-point lead. 

Forward Henry Coleman III was the Aggies' best player in that contest and logged 41 minutes while scoring 22 points and grabbing eight rebounds. Unfortunately for Aggies fans, the 6-foot-7 Coleman is the biggest player on one of the smallest lineups in the Power Six conferences. 

He'll face a massive Auburn frontcourt featuring the possible first pick overall in the upcoming NBA Draft in Jabari Smith (17.1 points and 6.9 rebounds per game) and 7-foot-1 center Walker Kessler (11.5 ppg, 8.2 rpg, and 4.5 blocks per game).

The Tigers will simply be too much on both ends of the floor for what should be a tired Aggies squad.

Prediction: Auburn -9 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

When these teams faced off last month, the Aggies scored just 55 points at Auburn Arena. However, while they aren't the best offensive team (and the Tigers are fantastic defensively), we don't see them shooting 27% from the field again or going a pathetic 3 for 22 from long range. 

Texas A&M has been scoring at a much better clip in recent weeks and even though those numbers have been buoyed by games against two of the worst defensive teams in the conference in Georgia and Alabama, connecting on nine of 17 shots from beyond the arc last night is a good sign. 

Unfortunately, the Aggies still won't be able to keep pace with an Auburn squad that ranks 13th in the country with 79.3 ppg and has four players averaging double-digits.

The Tigers also rank 42nd in the country in adjusted tempo, according to KenPom, and will no doubt try to push the pace against a Texas A&M squad that prefers a slower style and is on the tail end of a back-to-back. 

With the Over 5-1 in the Aggies' last six games and the Tigers going 12-6 O/U since the calendar flipped to 2022, we're expecting this game to go above the total.

Prediction: Over 139.5 (-110)

Best bet

We understand why you might be wary of backing the Tigers at -9 given how many close contests they've played since the start of February. But they did blow out Texas A&M when they clashed less than a month ago and their length will pose matchup problems for the Aggies' smaller lineup.

The Tigers are a championship contender for good reason and are among the best teams in the country on both ends of the floor. And now they take on a bubble team that should be exhausted after a tough game the previous night. 

Pick: Auburn -9 (-110)

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