Austin Peay vs Stetson Odds, Picks and Predictions: Hatters Secure Title Win

One team will look to punch its NCAA tournament bid when Austin Peay and Stetson meet to decide the Atlantic Sun Champion.

The Hatters got here by way of two wins; its last game reminded us what month of college basketball it was when Stephan Swenson hit a big three.

The senior guard knocked one down in the semifinal game against Jacksonville with just four seconds left; it would secure a 1-point victory for Stetson and get them into this game.

Austin Peay's road here was at least moderately less exciting. It needed overtime to grab its first victory of the tournament and then followed it up with a 77-71 win over North Alabama to advance here.

What's the best bet in this one? Find out when we look at the college basketball odds and give it in our college basketball picks for Sunday, March 10.

Austin Peay vs Stetson best odds

Austin Peay vs Stetson picks and predictions

This feels like the moment for the Stetson Hatters. In their 53-year history, the Hatters have never tasted the thrill of the NCAA Tournament. Now, they'll get their chance with an opportunity that comes in front of their home fans. I'm betting on them to take advantage.

Before we explain why, let's mention a disclaimer on this matchup. While it's rare that I'd lay this much juice, I still see considerable value in my moneyline price of -225. I'm opting for the moneyline instead of the points for various reasons, but mostly because each offense is highly efficient.

This could be a last-second free throw or ridiculous shot-making for either team to determine the cover. I have no interest in relying on either to break my direction, and I'm staying away from it. Now that's out of the way, let's look at this matchup.

These two teams met once this season, with Stetson getting a narrow 1-point win over the Austin Peay Governors at home. Those above highly efficient offenses were on display, too. Both teams scored over 80 points in a game that only saw 66 possessions.

In addition to that, both teams made double–digit threes. This is where the handicap starts, as it's pretty easy to ascertain which of these performances is more sustainable between the pair. That performance is the one from Stetson.

The single most significant mismatch in this game is the pick-and-roll defense of the Governors against the pick-and-roll offense. 

Austin Peay has been dreadful in defending middle-ball screens throughout the season. It ranks in the Bottom 6% of college basketball, the worst in the conference, and has allowed nearly .90 points per possession on those sets. That's where this game will be decided.

As mentioned, Stephan Swenson has been playing some of the best basketball of his long career. He's nearly doubled his scoring average in the two games of this conference tournament and is coming off a season-high 29 points last time out.

In addition, he had a great scoring game the last time these two squared off with 19 points. I love him to thrive in these pick-and-roll sets and to be the difference of this game, which will ultimately be this game's difference.

This handicap is relatively simple. Both of these offenses will enjoy a good amount of efficiency throughout, but at some point, that offense will come to a crawl for one team in a pressure-packed environment and moment. 

I expect that team to be Austin Peay. I also expect Stetson to capitalize on that moment, given that it quickly has the most direct and sustainable path to consistent offense.

My best bet: Stetson moneyline (-200 at bet365)

Austin Peay vs Stetson same-game parlay

Stetson moneyline

Stephan Swenson 20+ points

+300 at bet365

We paired our best bet of Stetson moneyline with Swenson to perform. His ability to get downhill against Austin Peay will be critical here.

He came just one point short of this alternate total the last time these two played one another. Given all that's at stake, I expect him to get over the hump the second time around.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Austin Peay vs Stetson spread and Over/Under analysis

You'll see a lot of volatility in this matchup, which means there should be ample opportunities to get better in-game numbers than pre-game ones. With that in mind, I'm passing on the pre-game spread here and looking for something live.

I'll double down if the chance to grab Stetson at a plus-money price to win the game arrives. If not, I'm comfortable with my pre-game position. These two teams have not met often, but Stetson has yet to be beaten by Austin Peay and are 2-0 all-time against them. I expect that to continue here today.

I placed an entire unit on the Over of 140. While there's a potential to catch a better number in-game, this still has enough of an edge against my projection of 145 points.

Each of these teams will need help stopping one another with any regularity. The two going over 160 points in the first matchup on 66 possessions tells you exactly that. Austin Peay has gone Over its team total in 17 of its last 19 games. Additionally, Stetson has exceeded its team total in five straight home games. 

Austin Peay vs Stetson betting trend to know

Stetson has cashed the moneyline in seven of its last eight games at home (+5.05 units / 35% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Austin Peay vs. Stetson.

Austin Peay vs Stetson game info

Austin Peay vs Stetson key injuries

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