Only one team can emerge from Saturday night with an undefeated record intact as the Baylor Bears and Iowa State Cyclones enter Big 12 play.
Baylor is rated as the top team in the country and has defeated a couple of Top-20 opponents on the season, including Michigan State and Villanova. Both of those blowout wins were by double-digit margins.
Meanwhile, Iowa State hasn’t knocked off a Top-20 team via KenPom rankings but has defeated teams four teams in the Top 40, including Xavier, Memphis, Creighton, and Iowa.
It’s been an incredible turnaround for Iowa State, but we can’t forget that Baylor basically lost its starting five from last year and is currently back at the top of the rankings this season.
Here are our college basketball picks and predictions for the Big 12 matchup between the Baylor Bears and Iowa State Cyclones at 2 p.m. ET on ESPNU.
Baylor vs Iowa State odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
The Baylor Bears opened as a 7.5-point favorite and have pretty much stayed around that number at every book. Meanwhile, the total is a bit all over the place after opening at 132.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Baylor vs Iowa State predictions
Predictions made on 01/01/2022 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Baylor vs Iowa State game info
• Location: James H. Hilton Coliseum, Ames, Iowa
• Date: Saturday, January 1, 2022
• Tip-off: 2:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPNU
Baylor at Iowa State betting preview
Injuries
Baylor: LJ Cryer G (Questionable), Matthew Mayer G (Questionable), Langston Love G (Out).
Iowa State: No injuries to report.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Cyclones are 6-0 against the spread in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Find more NCAA betting trends for Baylor vs. Iowa State.
Baylor vs Iowa State picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
Ultimately, we all kind of figured Baylor would be back to being one of the best teams in the nation coming off an NCAA Tournament appearance. But the big stunner here is Iowa State being undefeated after not winning a single Big 12 game last season. Yes, Iowa State went 0-18 in conference play last year and just 2-22 overall. So let’s give credit to head coach T.J. Otzelberger, who has been one of the best in the nation.
With a poor offense, Iowa State's mighty defense has been the Cyclones' driving force behind its unbeaten record. The Cyclones are holding teams to an effective field goal percentage of 41.6% while earning turnovers 26.8% of the time.
It’s also extremely difficult to hit threes against Iowa State as they’ve held opponents to just 24.2% from behind the arc. Inside, Iowa State is holding opponents to below 45% with defensive rebounding being the one area of concern against Baylor.
It’s not that Iowa State doesn’t dominate the glass, it’s more about how outstanding Baylor has been on the offensive glass. Baylor is bringing down close to 40% of offensive rebounds while Iowa State is allowing just 26.4% offensive rebounds. It’ll be interesting to see if the Cyclones can limit rebounding against Baylor, especially if they can get stops around the perimeter.
Baylor is shooting 35.8% from long range and 56.9% from inside the arc. However, Baylor rarely gets to the line and shoots just 65.8% when it does. If Iowa State can force a high amount of turnovers, limit shooting, and stifle offensive rebounds, the Cyclones will be in a great position.
Prediction: Iowa State +7.5 (-108)
Over/Under analysis
We’ve got two teams in the Top 10 when it comes to defensive efficiency. However, Baylor is still top five in offensive efficiency. The line is pretty fair when it comes to the total.
But I’m still going to suggest the Under here. If Iowa State is going to cover, the Cyclones are going to want to limit possessions and be smart with the basketball. If the Cyclones rebound well and limit the fouling, this game will ultimately go Under while Iowa State covers the 7.5-point spread.
Prediction: Under 132.5 (-120)
Best bet
It’s extremely hard to bet against Baylor, but I’ll take that route with Iowa State getting 7.5 points at home.
The Cyclones are still shooting 35.6% from long range while hitting 51% from inside the arc. The turnovers on offense will need to decrease, but Iowa State can certainly hang around on the glass and on defense.
Pick: Iowa State +7.5 (-110)
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