The college basketball betting slate for Saturday is headlined by a clash between Top-10 teams, as the No. 9 Baylor Bears take on the No. 5 Kansas Jayhawks.
These are the last two schools to win the national championship, and they are currently in a three-way tie atop the Big-12 standings. The Jayhawks are looking for revenge after they lost to the Bears in Waco last month.
College basketball odds expect Kansas to get that win, with the Jayhawks installed as five-point home favorites by the oddsmakers. The Over/Under is listed at 148.5.
Here are my best free college basketball picks and predictions for Baylor vs. Kansas on Saturday, February 18.
Baylor vs Kansas best odds
Baylor vs Kansas picks and predictions
When these teams faced off in Waco on Jan. 23, Baylor jumped out to a 13-point lead after eight minutes and held on for a 75-69 victory.
The Bears actually had an ugly 43.8 2-point shooting percentage in that contest, while Kansas shot a sizzling 57.6% from inside the arc. However, Baylor shot a bit better from 3-point range, and won the turnover battle with a plus-6 margin.
Given that both teams have similar turnover rates for and against, don't expect the same discrepancy again. The Jayhawks also tend to shoot better from long-range at home (37.3% compared to 34.1%), while the Bears shoot worse from deep on the road (33.8% compared to 38.1%).
Bill Self's squad has been sensational in Lawrence this season, going 12-1 SU with an average scoring margin of plus-11.8 points per game. Meanwhile, the Bears are 4-3 on the road with a scoring margin of minus-2.1 ppg.
As impressive as Baylor has looked offensively, shooting tends to decline away from home. Defense travels, and that's one area where the Bears have struggled since they rank last in the conference with an opponent field goal percentage of 46.8% in Big 12 play.
The home team has also gone 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these conference foes. Lay the points with the home side here.
My best bet: Kansas -5 (-110 at bet365)
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Baylor vs Kansas spread analysis
The Bears are getting hot at the right time, and have gone 10-1 SU and 8-2-1 ATS over their last 11 games.
They have won four in a row since high-energy big man Jonathan Tchamwa-Tchatchoua returned to the lineup after rehabbing from a devastating knee injury suffered last season. Tchamwa-Tchatchoua still doesn't look quite 100%, but he's fresh his best game since coming back, going 5-for-7 from the floor for 11 points with a block and a steal in 24 minutes against West Virginia.
The Jayhawks are 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six, and are coming off a pair of impressive road victories where they traveled to Oklahoma and beat both the Sooners and Cowboys by double-digits.
Jalen Wilson and Gradey Dick combined for 47 points on 62% shooting against Baylor last month, and they've been the Jayhawks' best players this season. Wilson leads the Big 12 in scoring (20.3 ppg) while pulling down 8.2 rebounds a night, while Dick averages 14.7 ppg on 46/43/85 shooting splits.
Kansas is one of just three teams that ranks in the Top 20 in both adjusted offensive efficiency (19th) and adjusted defensive efficiency (14th) according to KenPom.
The Bears are led by their guard trio of Keyonte George (16.5 ppg, 3.1 apg), Adam Flagler (15.8 ppg, 5.0 apg, 43/42/85 shooting splits), and L.J. Cryer (14.9 ppg on 47/43/88 shooting).
The Bears are first in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, but rank a modest 78th on the defensive end of the floor.
Baylor vs Kansas Over/Under analysis
Both of these squads can fill up the hoop, with Baylor leading the conference in scoring with 77.8 ppg against Big 12 foes, and Kansas dropping at least 77 points in five of its last six games. However, there are a few reasons to lean towards the Under here.
The Jayhawks limit foes to a 41.3 FG% and have some strong defenders, including Kevin McCullar Jr. and Dajuan Harris, who are second and third in the conference with 2.2 and 1.9 steals per game, respectively.
Five of the last seven meetings between these Big 12 rivals have gone below the total. Both Kansas and Baylor are a commanding 14-5-1 to the Under in each of their last 20 games against teams with a winning record.
The Jayhawks like to push the pace and rank 70th in the country in adjusted tempo, but they have a tendency to slow things down against better opponents. The Bears are just 214th in adjusted tempo, and have been playing at a far slower pace this season than in the last few years.
Baylor vs Kansas betting trend to know
The Jayhawks are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning % above .600. Find more college basketball betting trends for Baylor vs. Kansas.
Baylor vs Kansas game info
| Location: | Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence, KS |
| Date: | Saturday, February 18, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 4:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
