Baylor vs Kansas Picks and Predictions: Champs Clap Back on the Road

The No. 8 Baylor Bears have lost three of their last seven amidst a handful of injuries and are looking to set things straight in Saturday's best game against the No. 10 Kansas Jayhawks. A week ago, Kansas was run out of its own gym by Kentucky, and following a win on Tuesday over No. 20 Iowa State, is looking to reassert itself as a serious contender. 

Check out our free college basketball picks and predictions for Baylor vs. Kansas on Saturday, February 5th for the best betting angles in this matchup.

Baylor vs Kansas odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Kansas opened as three-point favorites and has since moved to -1.5. The total opened at a lofty 150.5 but has since moved down to 144.5. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Baylor vs Kansas predictions

• Prediction: Baylor +2.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Over 144.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Baylor ML (+125)

Predictions made on 2/5/2022 at 12:15 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Baylor vs Kansas game info

• Location: Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence, KS
• Date: Saturday, February 5, 2022
• Tip-off: 4:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

Baylor at Kansas betting preview

Injuries

Baylor: LJ Cryer G (Questionable), Adam Flagler G (Questionable).
Kansas: Ochai Agbaji G (Questionable).

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Kansas is 1-5 against the spread as single-digit favorites in its last six. Find more NCAA betting trends for Baylor vs. Kansas.

Baylor vs Kansas picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

Baylor has lost three of its last seven games just a month removed from being 15-0 a year after winning the national championship. The Bears’ run was bound to hit speed bumps at some point, but perhaps it occurring in conjunction with four of their players dealing with injuries (including their top three scorers) is a more hopeful sign that they can continue to be dominant late in the season.

Star guard James Akinjo (13.6 PPG, 5.6 APG) sustained and played through an injury during Baylor's back-to-back losses to Texas Tech and Oklahoma State before sitting out an additional game. Freshman standout forward Jeremy Sochan (8.6 PPG, 6.0 RPG) was also out during that same stretch with an ankle injury, missing five games total.  While both Akinjo and Sochan are at full health now, leading scorer LJ Cryer (13.9 PPG) and Adam Flagler (12.7 PPG) have missed games as of late, and both have been deemed true gametime decisions by head coach Scott Drew.

When looking at overall impact as well as on/off splits on both ends of the floor for the four (via EvanMiya.com), getting back Akinjo and Sochan is seemingly more important than Flagler and Cryer. Make no mistake, the latter two are still great players (especially Flagler), but Sochan's ability to command space as a 6'9" 230 pound forward that finishes 72% at the rim while shooting 49% on two-point jumpers and 36% on three-point jumpers while being a force on the glass, and Akinjo's ability to create for himself and others while being a high-end defender serve larger purposes for the Bears.

BPR is a measure of a player's overall impact. On / Off splits are expressed in terms of points per 100 possessions, with positive numbers implying a positive effect when on the court.

With Akinjo and Sochan back, potential absences from Flagler and Cryer are manageable, seeing as Baylor has ways of distributing their looks with their extensive depth of talent. This is why Baylor averaged 64.5 points in the four games that Akinjo and/or Sochan missed, whereas they've averaged 77.7 points in the three games since their return (which includes games missed by Flagler and Cryer). And while they will obviously need to score their fair share of points to keep up with Kansas' third-ranked offense (according to KenPom), it'll be their defense that makes this game winnable.

And that's where Matthew Mayer comes in. Mayer (9.8 PPG) isn't anywhere near as flashy as his teammates, but he is quietly their most valuable player. He ranks seventh in the nation in overall BPR and fifth in defensive BPR, and ranks first for both in the Big 12. Mayer is also in all three of Baylor's top three five-man lineups, with the best one allowing just 58.4 points per 100 possessions - that mark is third-best in the nation of any five-man lineup (min 20 possessions).

And while Kansas is expected to get reinforcements of their own in the form of leading scorer Ochai Agbaji (20.9 PPG), Mayer's star unironically shines brighter and Baylor's defense as a result will have an answer for Ochai and his supporting cast, whether it be Christian Braun (15.1 PPG, 5.7 PPG) or big man David McCormack (9.0 PPG, 6.8 RPG) who has seemingly removed himself from being a factor in high-leverage games.

Prediction: Baylor +2.5

Over/Under analysis

Whether Agbaji can do enough to shift the matchup in favor of the Jayhawks is an entirely different question from if he can contribute to a total that has come down significantly since its opening number of 150.5. As mentioned previously, Kansas' offense ranks third in KenPom and Baylor is no slouch either, ranking fifth.

And while it may seem satirical to suggest that the return of a player who averages just 8.6 points per game can have such a drastic effect on the scoring potential of a team, Jeremy Sochan's return is legitimately a bigger deal than most would make. After all, he is part of seven of Baylor's top eight five-man lineups when it comes to scoring efficiency.

Prediction: Over 144.5 (-110)

Best bet

Baylor is simply the more talented team with a better track record of delivering in showdowns such as this. To get last year's national champion as an underdog at any point should be seen as a gift, and nothing less. Kansas, on the other hand, is a team that has been single-digit favorites in all of its last six games and has failed to cover in all but one of those games.

And while Baylor has lost three of its last seven, there are easy explanations as to why its fallen as of late. Make no mistake, this team is as real of a national championship contender as any team out there. The same would be difficult to say of a team that managed to put up just 62 points just a week ago against a Kentucky defense that isn't as good as Baylor’s.

Forego the points, and ride with the Bears.

Pick: Baylor ML (+125)

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